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Jeff Higgins Jeff Higgins is online now
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Higgs Field
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You guys know I can't say anything specific. I can, however, post something that is already in the public domain.

Steve Denning wrote this for Forbes magazine. It is the most accurate assesment I've seen to date. It speaks to the climate at Boeing, not specific technical problems on the 787. It's the best I can do right now:

My article, The Boeing Debacle: Seven Lessons That Every CEO Must Learn, elicited spirited conversation. Several commentators noted that, in addition to the general lessons, Boeing made specific errors in the way it handled outsourcing and offshoring. Let’s take a closer look at those specifics.
Boeing enthusiastically embraced outsourcing, both locally and internationally, as a way of lowering costs and accelerating development. The approach was intended to“reduce the 787′s development time from six to four years and development cost from $10 to $6 billion.”
The end result was the opposite. The project is billions of dollars over budget and three years behind schedule. “We spent a lot more money,” Jim Albaugh, Chief of Commercial Airplanes at Boeing, explained in January 2011, “in trying to recover than we ever would have spent if we’d tried to keep the key technologies closer to home.”
The right goal: add value for customers
Let’s start with what Boeing did right. After losing market share to Airbus (owned by EADS) in the late 1990s, Boeing could have decided to focus on reducing the costs (and the selling prices) of its existing aircraft. That would have led inexorably to corporate death. Instead Boeing decided—commendably—to innovate with a new aircraft that would generate revenues by creating value for customers.
First, Boeing aimed to improve their travel experience for the ultimate customers, the passengers. As compared to the traditional material (aluminum) used in airplane manufacturing, the composite material to be used in the 787 (carbon fiber, aluminum and titanium) would allow for increased humidity and pressure to be maintained in the passenger cabin, offering substantial improvement to the flying experience. The lightweight composite materials would enable the 787 to fly nonstop between any pair of cities without layovers.
Second, Boeing aimed to improve value for its immediate customers (the airlines) by improved efficiency by using composite materials and an electrical system using lithium-ion batteries. This would result 20 percent less fuel for comparable flights and cost-per-seat mile 10 percent lower than for any other aircraft. Moreover, unlike the traditional aluminum fuselages that tend to fatigue, the 787′s fuselages based on composite materials would reduce airlines’ maintenance and replacement costs.
All good stuff, if Boeing could deliver. Boeing’s customers apparently thought they could. And the 787 became the fastest selling plane in aviation history. The stock price popped and the C-suite received their bonuses. But reality has since set in.
Overheating batteries
We have no way of knowing whether the cause of the current grounding of all 787s—lithium-ion batteries that overheat alarmingly—is a narrow, fixable manufacturing glitch or a serious design flaw that will put the whole enterprise in peril.
It’s true, as CEO James McNerny pointed out in a letter to Boeing staff on Friday, that “Since entering service 15 months ago, the 787 fleet has completed 18,000 flights and 50,000 flight hours with eight airlines, carrying more than 1,000,000 passengers safely to destinations around the world.” But all that will mean nothing unless and until Boeing can get to the root cause of those overheating Lithium-ion batteries.
What we do know is that the cost-cutting way that Boeing went about outsourcing both in the US and beyond did not include steps to mitigate or eliminate the predicted costs and risks that have already materialized.
The coordination risk
Even with proven technology, there are major risks in outsourcing that components won’t fit together when the plane is being assembled. “In order to minimize these potential problems,” wrote Dr. L. J. Hart-Smith, a Boeing aerospace engineer, in a brilliant paper presented at a 2001 conference, “it is necessary for the prime contractor to provide on-site quality, supplier-management, and sometimes technical support. If this is not done, the performance of the prime manufacturer can never exceed the capabilities of the least proficient of the suppliers. These costs do not vanish merely because the work itself is out-of-sight.”
Boeing did not plan to provide for such on-site support for its suppliers. In fact, it explicitly delegated this responsibility to sub-contractors. When the subcontractors didn’t perform the necessary coordination, Boeing had to provide the support anyway. “Boeing sent hundreds of its engineers to the sites of various Tier-1, Tier-2, or Tier-3 suppliers worldwide to solve various technical problems that appeared to be the root cause of the delay in the 787′s development. Ultimately, Boeing had to redesign the entire aircraft sub-assembly process.” The result? Huge additional expense, that should have been planned for and included in the project’s costs from the outset.
The innovation risk
The 787 involved not merely the outsourcing of a known technology. It involved major technological innovations unproven in any airplane. Would the carbon fiber composite survive the rigors of international flying? Could lithium-ion batteries, which are notorious for overheating and causing fires that are difficult to put out, be safely used? No one knew for sure. The 787 also contains multiple new electrical systems, power and distribution panels. The interactions among these novel technologies, introduced simultaneously, also exponentially increased the risk of innovation.
The innovation risk implied a greater involvement by Boeing in the development and manufacture of the aircraft. Astonishingly, Boeing opted for lesser involvement, delegating much of the detailed engineering and procurement to sub-contractors. The result? Unexpected problems have kept occurring that have delayed the project and increased its cost.
The outsourcing risk
Complicated products like aircraft involve a necessary degree of outsourcing, simply because the firm lacks the necessary expertise in some areas, e.g. engines and avionics. However Boeing significantly increased the amount of outsourcing for the 787 over earlier planes. For the 737 and 747 it had been at around 35-50 percent. For the 787, Boeing planned to increase outsourcing to 70 percent.
Boeing didn’t approach outsourcing as a troublesome necessity. Instead, like many US firms, it enthusiastically embraced outsourcing in the 787 as a means of reducing costs and the time of development. “The 787′s supply chain was envisioned to keep manufacturing and assembly costs low, while spreading the financial risks of development to Boeing’s suppliers.”
In his 2001 paper, Hart-Smith had warned of the additional costs and risks of large-scale outsourcing. Outsourcing didn’t cut costs and increase profits, he wrote; instead, it drove profits and knowledge to suppliers while increasing costs for the mother company. “Not only is the work out-sourced; all of the profits associated with the work are out-sourced, too.”
Hart-Smith argued that make-buy decisions should be based on complete assessments of all of the costs: “make-buy decisions should not be made until after the product has been defined and the relative costs established.” Outsourcing requires considerable additional up-front effort in planning to avoid the situation whereby major sub-assemblies do not fit together at final assembly, increasing the cost by orders of magnitude more than was saved by designing in isolation from the work-allocation activities.
Boeing didn’t follow Hart-Smith’s advice and outsourced the engineering and construction of the plane long before the product was defined and the relative costs established. The results have been disastrous. Boeing’s 787 project is many billions of dollars over budget. The delivery schedule has been pushed back at least 7 times. The first planes were delivered over three years late.


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"God invented whiskey so the Irish wouldn't rule the world"
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