Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajundaddy
Well... even looking at 2018 estimates of levelized cost, Nat gas generation is 1/4 the cost of PV and it runs when you want it to run. Math and useability are both important. I am not suggesting no use of PV, only that it is still very expensive and doesn't work to keep the lights on at night.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Source |
OK, I'll take this bait -
LCOE (Levelized Cost of Energy) is a very complex equation that does NOT take into account transmission costs, nor does it have any way of predicting the actual cost of Nat Gas - you have to use some assumptions. IF you use the current rate for NatGas (essentially free!), then the LCOE predicted for NatGas Gen is very low. However, if you use either historical averages or a weighted average estimate for NatGas (acknowledging that this 'frac-gas' bubble is temporary), AND you put in the costs of transmission, then the LCOE equation looks completely different.
I guess I'm saying, let's not toss our comments about 'how expensive' PV is without looking at the rest of the equation. A PV purchase today is essentially locking in a price for electricity (pre-paying) for the term of the evaluation. For many - like those concerned about using fossil fuels for electricity generation - this investment makes sense.
This discussion started in India, and has evolved into a discussion about the relative costs (first costs) of coal, and now natgas vs. PV. I conclude, being somewhat knowledgable in the solar industry, that PV for India makes sense, their loads are coincident with max generation, the generation can be located near the load centers, and there is no need for expensive transmission.
For US consumers, your conclusions *may* be different, but the growth of solar in the US is skyrocketing, so many feel this is a valid investment.
For me - I'd rather pay for my electricity using my own assets (PV array) vs. using the assets of the Utility company.....
You may draw a different conclusion...but this is a good discussion nonetheless....
td