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I am guessing that I might pay $32000 to $38000 for a late '80s Targa.....am I close?
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You might if you buy it off the "floor" of a dealer, but you woudn't have to pay that much unless you are looking for a pristine, low mileage example.
There are certainly a lot of Targas trading under $30k.
I haven't driven enough 911s to make really good "side-by-side" comparisons, but I found stock US Carreras to be significantly quicker than stock US SCs -- and that impression is borne out by the numbers.
Targas are apparently the heaviest variant, and the difference in weight between the 83 and 88 cars is more than made up for in HP:
1983 Targa: 2855lb curb weight; 180 HP, 189 lb/ft;
15.27 lb/hp
1988 Targa: 2976 curb weight; 217 HP, 195 lb/ft;
13.71 lb/hp
The source is the Excellence website. Weight numbers tend to be all over the board, and vary extensively by publication -- not to mention options.
However, if you have a Euro-spec SC making 204 HP, and have bumped your power up a bit with options like upgraded exhaust and maybe trimmed some weight (like A/C delete), the performance difference is probably minimal. Of course, the same performance mods on a Carrera will retain that edge.
Obviously, straight-line performance is not the same as being "nimble" -- it is possible the lighter cars handle better, but I never noticed any difference in street driving.
The difference, as Matt mentions, is that the higher price (and transaction costs) can buy you enough upgrades to get your SC into Carrera performance -- unless it is just a matter of wanting a "newer" car.
Personally, I like the G50 much more than the 915, and believe the Motronic is a little less finicky than CIS -- especially after long layovers.