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Registered
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Capistrano Beach, Ca.
Posts: 7,235
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In every missing plane case, every possibility is on the table until evidence is produced to eliminate a possibility as a cause. This case is no different. However, what is different about this case is that the only solid, verifiable data was found within hours of the disappearance (the loss of the transponder signal at 1:22 am) and no additional verifiable data has appeared since. Nothing, aside from the last voice message, has appeared. That is something I can't remember ever happening in a commercial airliner loss. Even the Air France crash produced data, via telemetry, that aided in locating the crash site and debris was found.
One crucial piece of information, the military radar signal placing the plane over the Straits of Malacca, is crucial. It needs to be verified or debunked. It is the game changer. Logic, economy of hypothesis, Occam's razor, or whatever you want to call it, dictates the plane either went down in the area of the signal loss or continued on for an unknown time along the flight path. Without the ability to eliminate possibilities through verifiable data, the entire litany of possibilities remain, however, and the military radar story expands those possibilities to any direction away from the last contact in a radius limited only by the flying time allowed by the fuel supply.
I'm afraid that if there is no debris found and the radar signals cannot be debunked, this has the markings of another Amelia Earhart situation, as someone has already mentioned. Very hard to believe it could happen again in the "modern" aviation age, but here we are. Even a small bit of debris found weeks or months from now will add something concrete and verifiable to this case but until then, we are no closer to a real answer to "where" or "why" than we were at 1:22 am on the date of the disappearance.
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L.J.
Recovering Porsche-holic
Gave up trying to stay clean
Stabilized on a Pelican I.V. drip
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