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I think they are getting closer. It's obvious to me that if you look at all of the data from all of the satellite pings, you can compare the doppler shift in the frequencies observed to that expected from a given course and speed and zero in on what it was. It may take many iterations but you'd eventually get there. The assumption there is that the plane flew in a sratight line, more or less, once it turned onto it's final heading. It's possible it could have flown in some random pattern, but not likely. I think what you are seeing is that they continue to refine their estimates of it's final position and we aren't getting all of the details about what they are calculating, and how.
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