[jyl]

Fitbit and similar "fitness band" products are selling around 800K units a quarter.

Of first-gen smartwatches, Galaxy Gear sold 500K units in 1Q14 despite being a crappy product. Pebble is selling roughly 100K units each qtr, despite being a tiny company w/ no marketing and very limited functionality.

So there is the seed of a market there, currently 6MM units/year for the current "early adopter/geek" products, that is ripe for big players with strong app ecosystems and marketing.

It might end up being like the iPod, iPhone, and iPad markets - in all cases, Apple came into an early stage market and took it to another level. In this case, though, Google is coming after the market too.