Quote:
Originally Posted by ossiblue
Don't get too excited. It won't be long before you'll see refinery closures for "seasonal maintenance", "winter fuel conversion," "pipeline problem," or unexplained "accident/fire" which will cause a temporary shortage and a price increase. At least that seems to be the pattern here in Ca.
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Instead of making up foolish conspiracies, just ask.
Refineries do scheduled maintenance. Every operating unit has to be overhauled to replace thin piping, work out machinery, etc. That interval can be from 18 months (catalyst regeneration in a platinum reformer unit) to 5 or 6 years for a fluild catalytic cracking unit. The cost can get over $120 million each.
They do that to prevent explosions and fires. It is the safest manufacturing industry in the US now, but wasn't always that way.
The planning for an outage such as this takes at least two years to fully plan and prepare for.
They almost always take place in the winter months when demand is lowest in order to have the least impact possible on the market.
To do otherwise would probably land someone in prison.
The gubmint knows when these turnarounds are planned well in advance.
The only manipulation that goes on is to make sure than too many refineries are not down at the same time.
This is the most closely regulated industry there is outside hte nuclear generating industry.
The gubmint is inside the refineries every single day, watching. Making sure there is no funny biddness. Otherwise someone goes to prison.
So loosen up the tin foil hat, refineries DO NOT and CANNOT manipulate the market in the US.
Oh and the switch from winter to summer blends? Not our idea, we think it's a waste of time.
But the gubmint MANDATES IT. They say we gotta do it so we do it. And yes it can disurupt the supply temporarily. Thank sacramento for that.