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Buying online isn't a huge deal, so long as the watch comes with the appropriate packaging and paperwork. I've made a few purchases of this type and haven't gotten burned; but I make sure to do my due diligence.
With respect to buying locally, I'd offer 20% less than MSRP and be prepared to walk if they don't get down to at least 15% off. Even Rolexes, which are super price controlled from the factory, have wiggle room. I've never paid more than MSRP - 15% for one.
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97 Carrera Coupe - Red
89 Carrera Coupe - Baltic Blue - Sold
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