Quote:
Originally Posted by Baz
About that play...another perspective.....
If you run the ball on 2nd down and DO NOT GET IT, you must use the last timeout.
In this scenario, you cannot risk running the ball on 3rd down because, if you don't get it, you won't see 4th down
The alternate scenario Carroll chose has a much higher expected value.
In this scenario, you throw into the end zone on 2nd. Result should be touchdown or incompletion. If an incompletion....you can still run on 3rd. Call timeout, and run again on 4th.
Scenario 2 guarantees threes cracks at the end zone (2 of which are running plays) given you don't turn the ball over. Scenario 1 runs the risk of only getting two plays off AND the defense can surmise the 3rd down play is definitely a pass.
Obviously you can argue a run play secures the ball better and/or having Lynch improves the odds of getting in but there are other ways of looking at it.
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You've got one of the best backs in the league today on your team. You run the ball down their throats and make them like it. The Seahawks screwed the pooch.
At a minimum you play action fake to Lynch with Lynch faking the dive and then try the pass. Terrible, terrible call.