We are seeing a higher minimum wage experiment play out now in our neighbor to the north, Washington State.
This is a summary of the Seattle "$15 by 2021" law, which went into effect this month.
http://www.jacksonlewis.com/media/pnc/8/media.2708.pdf
It phases in the increase - from $9.25 to $11 now, rising to $15 by 2021, which is about +5%/yr from 2015 to 2021, call it about 3% above inflation. It gives a small break (<$1) to companies with <500 employees. I'm not sure why 500 was chosen as the demarcation, and franchisees are mighty unhappy about it.
Too early to say what the effect is going to be, I think. Some media reported there was a flood of Seattle restaurants closing due to the coming wage increase, but that appears false: the restaurants themselves have stated otherwise.
Conservatives Say $15 Minimum Wage Is Killing Seattle Restaurant Scene, Restaurateurs Disagree | ThinkProgress
One well-known local Seattle restaurant chain is increasing wages in all of its sit-down restaurants to $15 immediately, raising menu prices by 20%, but at the same time is eliminating tipping. At its counter service locations, it is raising wages to $11 and raising prices by 3%. I believe price +3%, if realized, can offset +10% increased labor cost for most restaurants.
Ivar's to raise minimum wage to $15, cut tipping
SeaTac raised the minimum wage all the way to $15 in 2013, but only for certain types of businesses related to the airport. The sky hasn't fallen, but I don't think any broad conclusion can be drawn, since those businesses have pretty much captive customers and limited competition.
How Raising The Minimum Wage To $15 Changed These Workers' Lives
Personally, I will wait to see how Washington's experiment works out before deciding whether to support the Oregon effort to place a similar initiative on the ballot. I probably would not support a rapid and large increase; a gradual increase might get my support, if it is shown to work in Seattle.
I have friends who are surviving on minimum wage or close to it. For most of them, a moderate wage increase would be all positive. In most of those situations, staffing is already at minimum levels and hours likely would not be cut appreciably.
I have other friends who were surviving on minimum wage or close to it, until recently. I've seen what a difference a wage increase has made for them.
I have friends who own small retail businesses, and would be burdened by a wage increase. Kind of like my (late) father-in-law, who I mentioned already.
I am pretty aware of the financial models for large retail businesses. None of them will be driven to losses, or even returns below the cost of capital, by labor costs risign 3% above inflation for a few years (leaving out the ones that are headed to bankruptcy anyway). Their profit margins will suffer. The top executives' bonus structure will be revised to compensate. The share prices will be negatively affected, but labor costs are a fairly small factor in these companies' share prices, other factors will be much more important in determining share performance.