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Late update: Four companies provided estimates. All showed up within a week. I guess this is furnace time. First two companies were really jokes. We went with Belred Heating. Best price and they spent a bunch of time measuring the house heat load and determining that given the house and environment we'd never benefit from variable speed or higher efficiency.
Massive range in prices from the companies: from 1400 up to 14k. We went with the cheapest of the 5 choices belred recommended - an 80% goodman, single stage blower and burner. Bonus is that we saved $300 by keeping our existing thermostat (programmable thing from home depot.)
BelRed mirrored what our old furnace guy said. The high efficiency furnaces require yearly maintenance, also the exhaust condenses and is corrosive and the basement install is a problem.
Turns out the cheapest furnace wasn't in stock so next day they show with choice #3 for the same price, a better unit (4 blower speeds, 2 stage burner) with slightly higher btu than we chose but still 80% of what we had previously.) Works with our current thermostat. Cost was $1400 including tax and permits.
New unit works fine, quiet, its like it didn't happen, oh and they redid the intake ducting in the furnace room because the old stuff had big gaps. These gaps are a potential health issue as the intake can suck exhaust and blow it through the house. Poking around it looks like they did a good job, sturdy and no leaks. Inspector said good job.
So hopefully we get 30 trouble free years from this unit.
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