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I had to install a new furnace a few years ago to replace one that had been installed back in the late 60's. Old, noisy beast that I caught just in time since the heat box was about to crack all the way through.
Several companies came out and as the OP discovered the price ranges are nuts. Ended up with a 95.5%, single stage Coleman furnace. Can't remember who makes it, but it has been 100% trouble free since install.
I have a basement install, with condensate pump. One thing that impressed me about the installer is they installed a T on the exhaust with a small section of PVC and a cap facing the floor. Then they tapped the cap for a fitting and fed it into the condensate pump. This is so the condensation from the exhaust never gets back into the furnace. They had a number of failures from it and after installing the drain on the T fitting, they never get call backs.
Gas bill dropped quite a bit, and dropped even more last year after I put all new siding on the house and put insulation in the walls (nothing was ever installed..40's vintage house). New furnace is about 1/4 the size of the old one and puts out a lot more heat.
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