[trader220]

There was a huge run up in Ferrari’s in that late 80’s early 90’s period. IMO the biggest factor in turning that market around was the major global economic recession which occurred in the early 1990’s. I was currency derivative trader in those days.

To me the biggest difference is then you were talking about Ferrari’s which were already 6 figure plus and multiple 6 figure plus cars. That’s a very different economic level than a $20k car selling at $60k. The %’s can be deceiving ( like penny stocks). A Ferrari which was selling for $150k and now becomes a $450k car is already in a smaller buyer pool to begin with. When its $450k you’re paring that market down even more.

Having bought, enjoyed and sold a lot of air cooled 911’s over the last 20 years I think it sucks they’re climbing in price so much but… IMO the buyer pool will shrink on the move from $20k to $60k but even at the higher price level the demand is still far greater than for a $450k car. Without getting into the macro/micro economic theory of the markets.

Cars are rarely a good investment. When you start hearing them talked about as an asset class for investing, its probably a good idea to start shorting the market. Unfortunately there are no collector / classic car futures. That makes it pretty difficult to short the market. Although the % run up in the common 911 has been robust, baring a major global economic pull back (or meltdown yikes), I don’t think you’ll see a significant deflation in the price of the common 911. Some of the more rare models may have too much air in them now.

Take a nice driver g50 coupe with 90 to 120k on it. Three years ago you could pay about $20K ??? So now you have to pay $38k? ( roughly ) Could they drop back to $33k or even $30k ? Sure but we’re talking nickels and dimes compared to the $450k car losing the same %. These cars also get used to there are fewer and fewer low miles examples and more and more driver higher miles examples.

The iterations on market variances can go on forever.