[jyl]

We've always gotten new phones every two years, staggered, passing down the old phones to the kids. Now the kids are old enough that they don't lose or break phones, and current phones are good enough that I have declining interest in upgrading. So it might be time to buy some current phones (iPhone 6 or 7, let's say) and figure on keeping them for a few years. Up to now, it has felt like a two year old phone is sluggish or likely malfunctioning. But when they have 2 GB ram and 64 GB storage, that seems more future proof.

The move away from subsidized phones, and the maturing of smartphone technology, will be a big problem for smartphone makers in the US and other very developed countries. I think Apple's iPhone sales are probably peaking now in the US, and in coming years, they will need big growth in developing countries to offset stagnant or declining sales in the US and then in Western Europe.

The mobile carriers used subsidized phones to acquire and retain customers, but it because too expensive so they have moved away from those models. So then how will they retain customers?. 4G is all but ubiquitous, in a year I suspect Sprint and T-Mobile coverage will be close enough to Verizon and ATT coverage for almost everyone. 5G is 3 to 5 years off. Their customers are increasingly no longer bound by contracts, ATT's last two year contract will expire in Jan 2018. I suspect that in the coming few years, the carriers will be forced to compete on price far more than they do now. Since they don't like that, the carriers will continue trying to buy each other to create a duopoly. There will be huge money flowing to lobbyists and congressmen, because antitrust laws and the federal government are the only obstacles to that strategy.