[MRM]

Total guess based on my gut feeling - $20. There is so much supply now and demand is soft that in the short term producers will be dumping it at any price and the price will drop lower than we can now imagine. Intermediate term there is so much supply and demand looks to remain soft that it will take more than a year, possibly five, for prices to really stabilize and trend upward. Long term, the new fracking technologies have proven easy to turn on and off as prices pass the profitability mark for them, which will create downward pressure on price. At the same time, the world is working on energy efficiency technologies, so the long term demand for oil might actually be down.

I just read an article arguing that one of the reasons the Saudis are pumping oil without any limits is because they think they are going to run out of customers for oil before they run out of oil and they want to get whatever they can for it while a market for oil lasts. Think about that for a minute. We could be in a world where we have so much oil that we will naturally transition to the next technology and stop using oil because it's no longer needed before we run out of the sticky black stuff.