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I have long thought the Chinese economy was vulnerable. I'm very far from being any kind of expert on these things, but have to rely on common sense & a gut feeling along with what I can learn. Maybe not exactly reliable and no sense of timing to go with it. Any economy going through such an expansion inherently puts itself in a situation for instability. From my viewpoint, you can only herd your workforce around for so long before that strategy weakens because of internal inefficiency and changing conditions from the outside impinging on it to promote instability. The other thing alarming to me is the construction of infrastructure and real estate mega projects standing empty after completion and generating no ROI along with their attempts at expansion on so many fronts. Those things along with internal lack of built in flexibility enabling economic activity to go with the flow, point to major problems some where along the line. Like I say I'm far from knowledgeable, so maybe my perspective is just BS or naivety. But I've been out of the market & into cash since the last US market high. If I can see a real low to get back in, OK. If things are not that bad, and I get back in at the same level, I haven't lost anything. China's economic decline will be temporary, maybe making them learn some things and will ripple through the world economy. Our markets will react even though interaction with China isn't a huge part.
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Marv Evans
'69 911E
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