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A Man of Wealth and Taste
 
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Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
Posts: 51,063
For as long as there was enough global demand for Chinese product to match their production capability China was not a PONZI scheme. It was a growth story. The reason why China has not become a consumer driven society is that they do not have social safety nets as an incentive for poor decision making.

Once global demand fell and China needed to keep expanding their output so that the country would not experience the social/political pressure of civil unrest then one could make the claim of China becoming a PONZI scheme. What China did in 09 was take 500B USD out of their cash reserves and make shovel ready jobs building Ghost Cities in order to keep the wheels turning.

As I have said adnauseam the CONVENTIONAL WISDOM thought that the 08 crash was just another business cycle where the usual remedies of stimulus and provision of liquidity would soon create a return to normal economic activity. As time went on and every trick in the book was applied and found wanting as it didn't do the trick of restoring economic health the HOPE of a strong economy has started to fade. So MRM really isn't so unusual as he is is just one of the sheep in the flock.

In 2011 I told you 1.5 to 2.5 percent growth was going to be it and in early 2012 I told you that growth rate was only matching the rate of population growth. I also told you that the US economic demographic would revert to the mean of 1910. which means a large working poor class, a smallish MC and a very small Robber Baron class. of ultra wealthy. I have kept telling you since 2010 Equities was the only place to be and in September 2012 I told you SP 500 2250 without worry. We did get to SP 500 2137. Also I have said that once the FED stopped juicing the system it would falter...You can go into the archives of this Board and look up everything I have said here.

I have been telling you since 09 the moment GW went on TV there was a paradigm shift as GW spooked the herd. It was a before and an after moment as he told the world all was not well in Mudville (i watched it as it happened)..that was the bursting of the Great US Post World War 2 Prosperity Bubble. What the US government did in response is create a Sovereign Debt Bubble which was fueled by the creation of some 3.5T new USD's. All the while the US economy can not get off the ground because the US consumer is TAPPED OUT and the debt is acting as a ball and chain on the economy.. So the new question becomes when and NOT if this new Sovereign Debt Bubble goes kablewie..what makes it a WMD is the fact that the USD is the Reserve Currency and is universally held. When it goes you will have the economic effect of a nuclear war without the bombs. Meanwhile you can just see and feel the attendant stress that is being put upon the social and political fabric of the world.

Now do you want to start talking about the geopolitical situation and how it relates to the economic stresses being applied?

This is childs play people..
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