[jyl]

I want to start a discussion about how do you make decisions when there is substantial uncertainty.

I'm not talking about how do you decide on the answer to a math problem or how do you decide what size joist to use for a given dead load; those answers can be answered fairly precisely, so I would assume most of us would do the required calculations or find someone who can.

I'm also not talking about how do you decide if Velasquez was a better painter than Rubens or if Beck had better chops than Page; those are basically subjective questions that can be debated forever, with no particular need to ever make a decision, or consequences for that matter.

The stuff I'm asking about is: there is a decision that has to be made, there is a deadline to make it, if the decision is right/wrong then the outcome will probably be desirable/undesirable, you can possibly get more information with more time but you probably won't ever have all the information, and there is no book or equation or guideline that tells you how to decide.

How do you make the decision? Do you list the specific information you insist on having before deciding, do you set a date on which you'll decide with whatever information you then have, do you write lists of pros and cons and find some semi-quantitative way to extract a decision, do you think and mull until the decision somehow comes to you, do you consult others and be guided by a consensus or the weight of opinion, etc?

Discuss, please.