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Interesting topic.
One of my tools for dealing with decision-making in the midst of uncertainty is to dive deep into the Punnet Square of Cognition:
1. What do I know that I know about the situation? (Knowledge)
2. What do I know that I don't know? (Missing knowledge that I have a chance of obtaining)
3. What do I not know that I know? (Intangible knowledge or instinct)
4. What do I not know that I don't know? And how do I figure this out?
It's a relatively easy thing to list out 1 and 2. Pay attention to 3 and go with your gut. #4 is what always gets me in these situations. When trying to make a decision, I'll get through 1-3 as thoroughly as I can and attempt to minimize 4.
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