https://www.oecd.org/employment/leed/OECD-China-report-Final.pdf
Something that's been developing for a long time now, and more rapidly than predicted.
China is getting old very fast, and it hasn't yet gotten rich.
In a couple decades, there will be only four working age Chinese for every two elderly Chinese and every one Chinese child.
Demography will tend to reduce China's economic growth and current account surplus.
In 2040, imagine that China is experiencing economic growth not much greater than inflation, running a current account deficit, and is as centrally controlled as it is now.
Does it make sense that the Chinese government will choose to divert a very large percent of GDP to elder care, housing, medical services, support?
Why should it? The elderly won't be a voting bloc. Old people tend not to be violent protestors.
How will China care for the 25-30% of its population who will then be over 65 y/o?