[jyl]

It is interesting to consider that the kids currently in elementary school could be the last generation of teens where nearly 100% get their drivers' licenses.

Far fetched? Suppose that in 5 years AI cars are available for purchase and in 10 years AI is a common feature. And suppose the family owns all AI cars and never has any need to drive a non-AI car. And suppose that AI taxi/Uber rides are always available and cheap. Would the teenager then have any particular interest in learning to drive?

After all, kids stopped learning to ride horses. Many teens now don't learn to drive manual transmission cars. It isn't that uncommon for teens in Manhattan to not learn to drive until later when they move elsewhere. My daughter didn't learn to drive until she went away to college, in Portland she felt no need to drive.