Why the jury is wrong on Sagan’s DSQ
The initial contact is shown from the front. Sagan is in front of Cavendish, and Cavendish ends up with his shoulder in Sagan’s side and his head on Sagan’s shoulder. Sagan is moving to the right as the riders in front of him do the same, and Cavendish tries to sneak by between the barriers. Their bikes come together, and Cavendish leans right and begins to unclip his right foot from his pedal, indicating an imminent crash. All this before Sagan’s elbow is out.
Sagan’s elbow moves out as Cavendish falls. From the front video, it’s unclear whether the elbow actually touches Cavendish.
Regardless of whether the Sagan’s elbow made contact, it moved quickly. The disqualification was based on this perceived aggression, a “very serious maneuver,” according to the jury’s Philippe Mariën. The question, then, is whether this movement was actually aggressive — intended to push Cavendish — or merely reactive.
How could it be reactive? If a rider is pushed on their right side, the right elbow or arm (or head or foot) will come out to the right. It’s Isaac Newton’s third law of not falling off your bike. The key piece of evidence here is that Sagan’s bike moves left. He clearly slightly off balance. The elbow is just as likely to be a reaction to that as it is an aggressive swipe.
The primary question is not whether Sagan’s elbow made contact, though, but how purposeful his movements were. The mere act of closing the door on a rival, even if that caused a crash, is not the type of “serious” act that would normally lead a jury to a disqualification. A penalty, yes. There is plenty of precedent for that. And if Sagan’s elbow was thrown aggressively, as a means to push Cavendish in the barriers, then one can argue that the disqualification is warranted regardless of the movement’s efficacy. (If he took a swing at Cav mid-stage, for example, it would likely land him in hot water whether the punch landed or not.)
The problem with all of this is that the jury is assigning a motive based on actions that are not clear. There is reasonable doubt that Sagan’s action was purposeful. This is a long way from the American judicial system, but that lack of clarity should make a jury think twice about applying its most severe penalty.