[nathanbs]

Originally Posted by ficke

If something goes up in a saw tooth pattern on a graph is every one of those bumps a bubble?
If you look at stuff in a short view or are new to air cooled Porsche it must indeed look like a bubble now.
But let's put some number's and real life experiences and cars as examples that I have owned to put this "bubble " in perspective.
In 1980 a 1967 911S was about 5-7K. By the 90's they were about 10K by 2000 they might bring 12K, very slow rise compared to other sports cars. I was ridiculed for paying 15K in 2002 for a 1967 911S, the 67 911S barely doubled in 20 years.
Then there was this mad rush and crazy increase in value on these cars and the went up to 50K by 2007, I sold thinking that was the bubble and the price increase was tied to the ATM view of house equity and the easy money of the housing market. 6 months after selling the 67S, I was called by the flipper I sold it to asking if I wanted to buy the car back for what I sold it for or maybe a little less, the burst of the "Bubble" was confirmed to me. 1967 911S were topped out at $50,000.
Then the price went up again on these cars and then I was offered $115k for my 68S last year before this "bubble" popped.
So is the pop going to bring cars back down to 2007 prices of $50K? or the 2002 prices of $15K on SWB S 911?
I do not think so, the days of long hood 911's as a cheap entry into Porsche ownership are over, we now think 50k for a T as a pop of the bubble? That only seems cheap if you have been playing with these early Porsche for a few years.
In my view it is still high price and a very miner correction in the market of early Porsche 911's.
They need to come down another 50% before I would consider this a bubble that burst. Because the bubble started over 10 years ago.
I need to see a nice driver 67 911S for $50,000 again, other wise this is a miner slow down in the big picture and not a bubble.

Well put and spot on in my opinion. I would be worried if porsche's were disproportionately higher priced than other cars that were similar or perhaps better but that's not the case as I still feel that they are one of the best bangs for the buck in many many ways