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expect to be reamed. It all depends on how bad they want to sell the car. They may be going to sticker if supplies are constrained, but if that were the case, I'd wait a few months until they start piling up...because they will.
The trade and the selling price are two different negotiations. Negotiate the selling price first...*then* do the trade. I usually have a number in mind that I'm willing to pay ($500 over invoice is a good start, but it varies depending on if there are dealer incentives which would send it lower, or if it is a hot car and you've got to have it, which would send it higher).
I'm not a traditionalist though. I sit down and say "this is what I'm willing to pay". Then they counter, and I get up to leave. They come running after me. I give them the same number I started with. They counter again. I get up to leave. Some dealers never get it, and I've just left, with them running after me...but when I say this is what I'm going to pay, then that's what I'm going to pay. There's always another dealer.
Then AFTER you get a selling price, you negotiate the trade in value. The nada guides give you some guidelines. Again, if you dont' like their number, leave the table. In this market YOU are in control, unless you want a hot vehicle. And even then, there likely is a dealer that wants to move iron rather than piss and moan over margins.
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