[Jeff Higgins]

Folks have been gleefully predicting the demise of The Motor Company for as long as I have been riding. Any downturn in sales or profits is breathlessly hailed as "the end".

H-D has proven, if nothing else, to be exceedingly resilient. They were the lone survivor of the collapse of the entire American motorcycle industry in the '50's. They weathered the Japanese invasion of the '60's and '70's that saw the demise of most of the English motorcycle industry, and a good part of the European as well. They have weathered several downturns since then as well.

What is notably missing in the cited article is the health of the industry as a whole. A few of you guessed it - the entire industry is taking it in the shorts right now. Recreational riding, for whatever reason, just does not seem to appeal to the current generation like it did to mine. Commuting, in much of today's urban traffic, is almost some kind of a death wish what with distracted, hurried drivers running over bikes at an unprecedented rate. And we can now buy a car that gets every bit the gas mileage of a big motorcycle, for less money and lower insurance, removing those incentives from the equation.

Look for some of the lessor brands to go under and some of the low market share brands to consolidate. The market is getting smaller, and will get much, much smaller from here. Hell, I remember when H-D was doing well to sell 30,000 bikes a year - worldwide. I well remember the high-fives and congratulatory back-slapping when production hit 100,000 units per year. They since went on to exceed a quarter million units per year, which most of us thought was completely unsustainable. And it was. Even if they drop back under 100,000 units per year, they will still be bigger than they were as little as 20 years ago. I think that is a more accurate reflection of the real demand.

As far as the reliability issues and the die-off of the "boomers", both of those shop-worn "analysis" have long since been non-issues. There simply are no more reliable machines made today, by anybody, two or four wheels. Maintenance? There hardly is any; read any motorcycle long-term review, and they all tout the relative lack of any maintenance on these bikes. My own experience reflects that as well.

And how about those "boomers" that supposedly make up the lion's share of H-D sales? Another myth promulgated by the uninformed who hope to appear as though they know what they are talking about. I go to a lot of bike events, I mean a lot of bike events. I have never seen the younger generation so well represented on their Harley-Davidsons. They still very much represent what young riders aspire to, outside of the sportbike crowd.

You want to talk about a dying segment of the motorcycle industry - take a look at sportbikes. I remember just a few years ago Suzuki even stopped importing their GSXR line into the United States altogether. Not a one... Not a single 600 or 1,000cc sportbike. Nadda. Couldn't sell 'em.

Other makes were not doing much better. Now Audi is looking at selling off Ducati, but they are finding no suitors. Now that would be a shame, but a much more realistic scenario, if Ducati went under. Talk about priced well above the rest of the market, and being almost totally dependent upon affluent riders while really only appealing to younger riders. Expensive, frequent maintenance? Can anyone say "desmodronic valvetrain"? H-D isn't in nearly as dire straights, yet they are the goliath of the industry, and every hack with a typewriter would love to be the first to nail their demise. Ain't happening. Not by a long shot.