[jyl]

We have four large malls in Portland and environs.

The highest end mall, Washington Square in Tigard, is doing great or at least very good. It is a destination for socializing, dining, movies, shopping. It helps that Tigard is a very suburban place. For an active, lively place with lots of people and lots of things to do, the mall is where is at.

The other high end mall, Pioneer Square Mall in downtown Portland, is doing okay. It is also a destination, with plenty of parking, movies, dining, and shopping in a downtown that is a pretty popular place to be after work hours but where streetfront stores are increasingly afflicted by homeless people hanging out front - but no homeless in the mall.

Those are both "A" malls.

The "B" mall near my house, in close in Northeast Portland, is the Lloyd Mall. It is not doing well. Two of its three anchors are gone, with Nordstrom and Sears closing. Many of its teen apparel retailers are struggling. The 10 screen movie theatre in the mall was closed and converted to "creative office space". The park right across the street has a not-unfounded reputation as a place to buy drugs and get stabbed. This is sad because the Lloyd Mall was [edit: NOT] the very first enclosed shopping mall in the US. However, it was bought by some very deep pocketed investors who are putting money into reviving the mall. It has been remodeled, modernized, the ice skating rink moved to a more central location, and the main entrance rebuilt to have a more appealing appearance from the street. The Nordstrom location is going to be revised into a place for small local businesses. The Sears location will be rebuilt into a movie theatre and more creative office space. The immediate surrounding area is undergoing a transformation with about 3,000 to 4,000 new apartments and condos built within the last two years or coming within the next year or two. It is served by light rail, streetcar, bus, a freeway offramp, and a major bicycle/pedestrian bridge over the freeway and multiple new bike routes will be added soon. New office development is starting and property values are shooting up. All these new residents and workers will be looking for what a mall can offer. The thing is that they won't be driving cars into the parking garage, they will be walking over from their home or office. And while there is a nice commercial street with shops and dining, it is full up with no room to add many more businesses. The original mall was designed solely for shoppers in cars, with a bunker like appearance. The challenge the owners have is to somehow connect the indoor mall to the neighborhood outside, and fill it with craft beer and entertainment instead of lookalike chain stores, which is not easy. I'm hopeful. I like that mall, took the kids there all the time.

There is another mall, Clackamas Town Center, that I don't know anything about. Been there maybe once in ten years. It's a fair drive away.

My feeling is that the very highest end "A" malls are holding their own, not growing but not really in decline. They have an easier time in suburban areas where there isn't much competition. Malls is urban locations are having a harder time and "B" malls are really suffering. "C" malls are dying off.

America is really over stored. During the period 1998-2008, everyone thought any half decent retail concept could support 5,000 stores and they were being built right and left. Unit growth of 15% plus same store sales growth of 5% made for 20% sales growth that would supposedly continue for decades, and supported high stock valuations. Now there are too many retail concepts overlapping and the easiest way to buy anything is with a mouse click, the right number of stores nationwide is half of what was believed before, low inflation and stagnant wages means low or no same store sales growth, and the people who are making all the money are not interested in teenybopper jeans or mass market women's casualwear. So -10% unit growth plus -3% same store sales means -13% sales growth and it doesn't take many years of that for a retail chain to go bankrupt. Shuttered stores, empty malls.

The fastest growing population centers are very urban, the disposable income is being spent on eating out, microbrews, rent and mortgage payments, travel, digital gadgets. What almost every traditional mall wishes it was, is a carefully designed "village" of shops and restaurants amid winding paths. A "Town Center" of shops instead of a mall.