Hurricane Florence
 

Does not look good :-(



Florence: the “Harvey of the East Coast”?
The models are increasingly on board with a scenario where the trough of low pressure that was expected to turn the hurricane to the north late this week will be too weak to do so, as a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic. This “blocking ridge” would block Florence’s forward progress. Florence might then stall and wander near or over the coast for as many as six days, becoming the “Harvey of the East Coast”, dumping prodigious amounts of rain. The analogue would be especially strong if Florence slams inland as a major hurricane with a first round of impacts—as did Harvey near Rockport, Texas—and then stalls to produce a multiday flood disaster, as Harvey ended up doing in southeast TX.

My daughter is a freshman at UNCW. Luckily, I have a great friend 5 minutes from campus that can take her in or take her when he evacuates. I will be tracking this very closely.

If this tears up Hilton Head again, my retirement move in 2019 is gonna change. Pinehurst, NC and Bend, Or are looking better by the minute.

Good luck to all you guys in the area. Time for a little vacation to Asheville.

I hope Asheville does not get flooded out again.
City already had a rough summer with major flooding.

This don't look good down east....at all :(.
Mathew was bad enough....

I'm keeping my eyes on this for this upcoming weekend. We are camping near Athens Ohio
, which is near the Ohio river at WV. I feel for all the folks on the coast that have far more at risk than a wet weekend.

It might ruin our trip, we are planning on landing in Charlotte on Monday the 17 and spending 5 days wandering around to Atlanta...

Guess we need to bring our Harvey gear with us!

We are keeping an eye on it, but I think the worst will go north of us in Charleston.....At least that's what I keep telling myself. Good luck everyone.

Oh I hope not. Our land here is fairly flat, so the water spread out. With the hills, valleys and mountains, you will end up with lots of deep, concentrated flooding, even if you do not get the 30-60" of rain we did.

I saw what 7-8" did in Baltimore.

The one two years ago made a lot of eastern NC one big lake...and the further inland one goes....worse. I actually had flooding on my property a few months ago....local storms. Storms like this make local....everywhere :(

000
WTNT41 KNHC 092053
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

The last reconnaissance fix indicated that the pressure had fallen
to about 978 mb with Florence, a drop of about 6 mb in 4 hours, with
uncontaminated SFMR winds of about 70 kt. Since then, the satellite
presentation has continued to improve, with intensifying deep
convection near the center. Thus the wind speed is set to 75 kt on
this advisory.

Radar data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter indicated that there were
still a few breaks in the eyewall, possibly allowing some dry air to
mix into the core. This structure has potentially kept Florence
from intensifying rapidly so far. It is likely, however, that the
eyewall will close soon with low environmental shear present,
resulting in a faster intensification rate. The guidance is
remarkably well clustered, with all of the hurricane models showing
category 4 strength within 48 hours, which is uncommon given the
current intensity. The new forecast continues to show rapid
intensification and is increased 5 or 10 kt at most time periods,
but it is still not as high as the Florida State Superensemble or
the NOAA corrected consensus models. It is worth noting that the
model guidance is also significantly increasing the size of
Florence's wind field over the next few days, and the official
forecast reflects this trend.

The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Florence hasn't gained
much latitude yet, and continues moving westward at about 6 kt.
There is no change to the synoptic reason as a very strong ridge is
forecast to build over the northwestern Atlantic during the next few
days. This pattern should steer Florence west-northwestward at a
much faster forward speed by Tuesday. On Wednesday, the hurricane
will likely turn northwestward and slow down somewhat due to another
ridge forming over the Ohio Valley. The most notable change from
the previous advisory is that most of the models are showing a
faster motion in 3 or 4 days, which unfortunately increases the risk
of a destructive hurricane landfall. The GFS and its ensemble mean
are outliers from the main model envelope, showing the system near
the Outer Banks, while the rest of the guidance is well to the
southwest. While a near-miss isn't impossible given the spread of
the ECMWF Ensemble, there is much more support for a track to the
southwest, especially considering the poleward bias of the GFS thus
far this season. Therefore, the official track forecast is shifted a
little bit to the southwest, and is very close to the
corrected-consensus models.

The NOAA G-IV jet is conducting a synoptic surveillance mission this
afternoon to gather data near and around Florence for assimilation
into the numerical models, and these missions will continue through
Tuesday. In addition, upper-air stations across portions of the
central and eastern U.S. are conducting special 0600 UTC and 1800
UTC radiosonde launches to collect extra data for the numerical
models. Hopefully these data will help improve the track and
intensity forecasts.

Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from
Florence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a
prolonged heavy rainfall event inland. While it is too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into
the mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of
Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow
any advice given by local officials.

2. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week. These swells will result in
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Looks like a repeat of Fran :-(
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1536548397.png

^^^^ Indeed....this is gonna be a bad one :(. The ground is already saturated here....I've hed several big trees downed in recent weeks...it looks like it'll have mebbe 50 mph winds by reaching my area....get ready....you're gonna get it much worse....be safe.

edited.... 70 mph here....down east and Wilmington 140...direct hit. If I had a kid at UNCW there woud be an evacuation order.

UNCW has a voluntary evacuation now.

https://uncw.edu/news/2018/09/Alert-UNCW-Issues-Voluntary-Evacuation-for-Students,-Starting-at-12-p.m.,-Monday,-Sept.-10.html

140 MPH winds are life threatening, and can't be walked through. Anyone near the coast should get out now, or tomorrow. Bravery stops, and stupidity starts in winds (and rains) that hard.

here in myrtle beach.

if this one hit here as a 4 I was getting out. worried about the 930.
looks like Wilmington or maybe further north.

had no power for almost a week after the last one. was not that big a deal as it was not hot. took quick showers so only one or 2 cold ones.

Well, that just plain sucks.

Let's hope that the high to the north breaks up or moves to the east to allow the hurricane to travel off to the north.

Having it come ashore and get parked there is not a good scenario. Looks to be an impactful storm at anyway, But doubly so if it stays in one area for a long time.

I've got space for dry camping at my place near Panama City fl. Pine Log State forest park next door has a handful of sites open too, for those that are thinking of headin south.

Best of luck to all in the area.

Cheers Richard

The best website for storm tracking....

https://www.windy.com

Thanks !

Stay safe guys, with all the recent rain in NC this can't be good.

Some of the models dump 12-30 inches of water right over where I live in Va.
As said before- ground here is 100% saturated. The front yard has become a permanent tractorpulling mudhole/ stream this year, ordinarily it only has water for about 2 weeks in spring. It's never been like this for so long. If this hits with any wind at all, lots of trees are coming down. They will be restoring power for weeks.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1536584532.JPG
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1536584532.JPG.

At the bottom of the mountain, 20-30 inches of water would take some roads OUT!
If the forecast holds up, these roads are gonners:

- this blurry pic shows a field which will become a river with all the water coming off the mountain in the background. There is a house down there which will be toast. The VDOT guys had some equipment down there doing their best to prep.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1536584621.JPG


That field drains under this road. It will be gone too if the predictions are right...

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1536584621.JPG



Here is another road that catches all the water from the mountain. It gets bad flash flooding with several inches. Should be a washout.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1536584621.JPG

It looks like consensus is building for a Wilmington, NC hit, but it is still early. Also, PM when you get settled in. I can get intro'd to a surprisingly small, but really deep 911 crowd near there.

I am partial to this site: Mike's Weather Page... powered by Sparks Energy!

Information overload.....:eek:

The facts, I just want the facts.

That's a new one for me. Thanks!

Blows, actually...

Mike's is a hurricane specific site. Windy is more of a general weather site. To each his own.

I use both.

The Windy site uses the same models everyone else does, just presents them graphically with a terrific interface.

Look in the lower right corner, you can pick a model and track it: The GF model has Florence sitting and spinning, the NAM and EC do not.

My daughter at UNCW is leaving for Raleigh right now. Still in the path, but not nearly as devastating as it will be Wilmington.

Have recently retired friends that just finished a beautiful "forever" home in N. Myrtle Beach and own 2 rentals around Emerald Isle, NC. This could be a triple whammy for them. :(

Outerbanks -

https://twister.asc.ohio-state.edu/models/view/nam/sfc/20180910/12

GFS has it stopping just as it gets to the coast - Which could turn it into an even more deadly storm

My friend in Swansboro NC is already feeling the effects.http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1536608744.jpg

Just peachy....

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1536609322.png

I am trying to figure out how that is even possible?

The storm is still 1200 Miles from mainland US.

Is your friend messing with you?

I think he is messing with you. Here is a screen shot from the live webcam at the Ocean Isle pier.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1536612042.JPG

Anyone in the path a 1st timer? I have been through a few of these now. I spent the entire month of Sept 2004 without power with a 1 year old kid in the house.

We have a rule, weak cat3 and under sit tight.

Strong Cat 3 monitor with plans to sit tight but do not discount evacuating.

Cat4 and 5 GTFO out nothing is worth it and trust me sitting through a Cat 3 storm in your house is unnerving. The sound the wind makes screws up your head. Get away get somewhere safe and come back rested and ready to clean up.

Tips you will not get on the news.

- Gas pumps are usually on 24 hours a day, make a gas run, even if you have to run 100 miles away and get it in the middle of the night.

- Alcohol sales will be banned when evacuation is mandatory until well after the storm. Forget bread and milk make sure you have beer and whiskey.

- Fill your fridge with lots of water containers and freeze them all now, they will help keep things cold for a long while after the power goes out.

- Unplug your dishwasher, put things you cannot fit in your car in there, pictures papers thinks that you do not want to be water damaged. Close it up tight, it is water proof.

- You will be on your own after the storm, form a network of friends or family who you can work together with and help.

Above all else, be safe, I am hoping this storm would turn away and go bother the fish.

Ron, I'm concerned as well, and we're on highish ground in Ivy. I do have a whole house generator though, so if you lose power for an extended time you're welcome here...