Tesla: The Great Short

[Sooner or later]

The scary part is that revenue, earnings per share, and net income were actually down over the last 2 quarters compared to the same two quarters in 2018.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/income-statement?freq=Q

[Sooner or later]

The one thing they have going for them in their next report is that 1st Q 2019 was terrible. Should be an easy beat if Coronavirus doesn't kill their Asian sales and production.

[techweenie]

[speeder]

A lot of people made a financially fatal mistake. I'm just grateful that our resident expert didn't have the balls to actually follow through on his confident predictions. I don't want to see anyone get hurt.

[sammyg2]

Remember the year 2000, and the dot com bubble?
I do.
It didn't make any sense but kept going up and up and up, until it finally didn't anymore.
then it was all over 'cept the crying.
Not me, I missed the drop for the most part but did OK in the long gradual recovery.

Mania has taken hold in the equity market and there is “no respect” for risk, says one strategist
Published: Feb 19, 2020 11:47 a.m. ET


Veggie-foods maker Beyond Meat BYND, +4.02% trades at 282 times estimated earnings. Tesla’s TSLA, +7.97% stock price has doubled this year. Virgin Galactic’s SPCE, +13.53% stock price has nearly tripled in 2020.

The world’s most profitable company, Apple AAPL, +1.60%, withdraws its revenue guidance, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite actually closes higher on the day.

Mike O’Rourke, chief market strategist at institutional broker JonesTrading, says a “mania” has taken hold, blaming zero-commission retail brokers, the Federal Reserve’s injections of liquidity, the forced buying from index fund managers, and active fund managers who are too scared not to follow suit.

“The bottom line is there is no respect for risk in the equity market and mania is not indefinitely sustainable, there is no permanently high plateau,” he writes in a note referencing Rodney Dangerfield, the comedian who famously couldn't command respect.

John Rekenthaler, a columnist at fund-ranking service Morningstar, attempted to divine when investing becomes speculation. It wasn’t an easy task. The conclusion he reached is that an expenditure when the return is too uncertain or likely negative is speculation. But even that is too simple a definition, he writes.

“Securities with barely positive expected returns and extremely high volatility are speculative — unless their performance is negatively correlated with the rest of one’s portfolio, in which case the investment may be warranted,” he says.

There is a record high level of unused share buyback capacity, according to JPMorgan, leading the bank to think buyback announcements will decrease. Higher valuations also may tempt companies away from new buybacks. Instead, companies may focus on capital expenditure, dividends and mergers and acquisitions, the bank said.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-a-market-with-no-respect-for-risk-whats-the-difference-between-investment-and-speculation-2020-02-19?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

[trader220]

A few of the greatest days of my professional career on the floor were back in the dot bomb days. The run up was great but there were a handful of really ugly days in the market which were fantastic as a trader.

[sammyg2]

down about 5% this morning.
Could be an opportunity for those addicted to risk.
Not me.

[legion]

I watched a few videos on YouTube this weekend from an account called "Rich Rebuilds". (I'll post them later today if I remember.)

In one of the videos, Rich takes a Model X to an independent Tesla mechanic (surprised he hasn't been sued out of existence yet). I was amazed. The build quality was very poor. They used nylon washers in places where they would wear out quickly, eventually leading to the door actuaters punching holes in the door sheet metal if they weren't replaced every few hundred door openings. All of the door glass on the car needed to be reshimmed constantly as the doors constantly vibrate and shake stuff loose and out of alignment. This issue also electrical issues and the doors to shake themselves out of alignment. It seems like they have to be adjusted every few thousand miles or they will start rubbing the paint off in places. Oh, and the tops of the front door act like wind tunnels and cause extreme wind noise and even more door vibration.

[speeder]

Originally Posted by sammyg2

down about 5% this morning.
Could be an opportunity for those addicted to risk.
Not me.

Global markets reacted to the Coronavirus and tanked quite a bit today, lots of stocks are down 5% or more. TSLA would have to drop a lot more than that to be a bargain again, IMO.

[pmax]

Be careful with this one, folks.

[legion]

Tesla build quality:





Tesla service:

[Sooner or later]

Down she goes.

718

Registrations of new Tesla (TSLA) cars in China hit the brakes in January, plunging by almost half, as the Lunar New Year holiday and the then-escalating coronavirus outbreak kept buyers away.

Citing state-backed China Automotive Information Net, which gathers industry data based on insurance purchases, Bloomberg reported Thursday that 3,563 Tesla cars were registered in China last month, down from 6,643 in December.

Of the January registrations, 2,605 were for cars built in China, Bloomberg said.

The hefty drop illustrates Tesla’s vulnerability not only to unexpected events that impact buyers’ behavior but also broader trends in China's electric-car market, which has seen waning demand amid slowing economic growth and reduced incentives for electric vehicles.

Also, the solar panel business has been a drain on Tesla. And now this.

TOKYO (AP) — PANASONIC is pulling out of its partnership with Tesla to produce solar panels at a factory in New York state, the Japanese electronics maker said Wednesday.

Panasonic's production at the factory in Buffalo will end by May, with an exit by September, it said in a statement. The decision is to streamline the company's global solar energy operations, it said.

[legion]

The "partnership" with Panasonic is not really a partnership. Panasonic leases space in the Solar City building and produces a competing product there. Tesla had promised the city of Buffalo minimum employment numbers in return for subsidies, which they have never met, even if you count the Panasonic employees in the building.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by legion

The "partnership" with Panasonic is not really a partnership. Panasonic leases space in the Solar City building and produces a competing product there. Tesla had promised the city of Buffalo minimum employment numbers in return for subsidies, which they have never met, even if you count the Panasonic employees in the building.

Tesla claims they have met the hiring requirement. Part of the Panasonic deal was shared cost of purchased equipment.

They also have a partnership in battery production. Tesla has done very well with their storage side of the business. Solar panels not so much.

[Sooner or later]

670

It was at 917 a couple of weeks ago. (2/19)

[speeder]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

670

It was at 917 a couple of weeks ago. (2/19)

Let me know when it gets below 200, where it was when this thread started in 2019. Then it will really have tanked.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by speeder

Let me know when it gets below 200, where it was when this thread started in 2019. Then it will really have tanked.

It will probably bump up from today's low.

It got ahead of itself when it hit 900.

The drop is indicative of expectations of next quarters report which doesn't look promising today. Even though the same quarter last year was terrible and a beat should be expected.

[legion]

Has anyone actually watched the videos above?

[flipper35]

Originally Posted by widebody911

No; they only gave it back because the story gained a significant amount of traction in social media.

Did they give it back? I was curious since none of the places I read about it had any updates.

They should, since it was on the Monroney sticker as OE. It isn't like a subscription like XM. It would be like removing or completely disabling the XM receiver so you couldn't subscribe.

[widebody911]

I figured it would have fallen apart once it hit 914