Oregon's Pot glut

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

I've been slowly buying Aphria since the first of the year. Hope my investment doesn't go up in smoke...

I lost 1/3 of my Cdn holdings before I got skeered on Dec 4....dumped it....up in smoke .
Back into ACB....I did much worse when I had a gut....always lost it all .

[dad911]

Send some to NJ, we'll smoke it.

Spoke to someone tried to get into the business. Mob ruled, lives threatened. Only the big boys will survive.

[fastfredracing]

I've got some grower friends who saw this coming as soon as the first talks of legalization were in the works.
They have poised themselves for this exact scenario, and are going the all natural route. What an interesting business. I almost got in at one point, but their business was not always legal . Too much risk for me. I won't do my family any good in a jail cell.

The glut was certainly foreseeable—that’s what happens when there is pent up demand. People invariably overproduce. It will take about 5-10 years for the industry to settle out. In the meantime, maybe a trip to Oregon is in order!

What was remarkable to me is how fast the stores sprang up everywhere out here—virtually overnight, fully stocked, with supply chains hitting on all cylinders. That made me realize how extensive and well established as a fully formed underground industry.

I think cannabis has a great future in medicine, and hope the feds stop flogging this dead horse and decriminalize it nationwide.

[pwd72s]

Earlier tonight, Cindy & I passed 4 pot shops on our way out of Salem after playing pool. One had a sign advertising a price of $3 for a gram. Find it Ironic that these shops were all on the same street as the state prison...

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by madcorgi

....

I think cannabis has a great future in medicine, and hope the feds stop flogging this dead horse and decriminalize it nationwide.

^^^^ Yep...the CDB aspect.....plus...it cures depression

This is just a WAGamble....might end up with nothing...I am the worst investor in pot ever....batted .000 fer decades

[GH85Carrera]

Originally Posted by madcorgi

The glut was certainly foreseeable—that’s what happens when there is pent up demand. People invariably overproduce. It will take about 5-10 years for the industry to settle out. In the meantime, maybe a trip to Oregon is in order!

What was remarkable to me is how fast the stores sprang up everywhere out here—virtually overnight, fully stocked, with supply chains hitting on all cylinders. That made me realize how extensive and well established as a fully formed underground industry.

I think cannabis has a great future in medicine, and hope the feds stop flogging this dead horse and decriminalize it nationwide.

Or too many people see a market opportunity to sell a product. Just like the farmers of today can produce way more corn than we can eat. Same with wheat farmers and dairy farms. The farmers produce more than the world market can consume and then the government steps in to subsidize the price to keep the farmers in business. At least I can feel sure the feds will not have a pot farmers support program. Wait, the federal government has spent money on lots of other stupid things, I will not bet against a pot subsidy afterall.

[gtc]

Originally Posted by GH85Carrera

... At least I can feel sure the feds will not have a pot farmers support program. Wait, the federal government has spent money on lots of other stupid things, I will not bet against a pot subsidy afterall.

There was government cheese... why not government pot?

Ever heard of G13?

[widebody911]

Originally Posted by gtc

There was government cheese... why not government pot?

Ever heard of G13?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegations_of_CIA_drug_trafficking

[SCadaddle]

"Wolfe hired a production team made up of Cameron University students and a professor to film the pilot season of Wolfe’s House of Weed, a television program based on the development of his medical marijuana business, Nature’s Meds. The show follows Wolfe, his family, and staff, as they deal with construction, funding issues, and growing the medical marijuana."


Maybe his cousin Mike Wolfe and his little buddy Frank Fritz will show up and "bail" them out at 30 cents on the dollar after texting photos of the "score" to Willie Nelson.

[KFC911]

Some Rastafarians must've discovered my stash of ACB stock today....or Cheech

[group911@aol.co]

Looks like your chart is quoting fairly recent prices. I'm wondering where the crash is? If I'm reading it correctly, by the pound, which I assume is the wholesale price, it's still above $1200. By the ounce, it appears to be $150 oz or $2k a pound.
Those ain't crash prices.

Dispensary Medical
Quality

Av $/ 1p
Low -
Medium $ 1000.00
High $ 1675.00
Dispensary Recreational
Quality

Av $/ 1p
Low -
Medium $ 1250.00
High $ 2250.00

Originally Posted by LWJ

Funny. I have been calling gold rush since the beginning. Bunch of stoners wanted to turn a hobby into a career.

I think the prices are super cheap here. I'm not a user so I wouldn't know.

Found this for the curious:

Oregon Weed Prices for 1 Gram to 1 Pound

[KevinTodd]

Originally Posted by group911@aol.co

Looks like your chart is quoting fairly recent prices. I'm wondering where the crash is? If I'm reading it correctly, by the pound, which I assume is the wholesale price, it's still above $1200. By the ounce, it appears to be $150 oz or $2k a pound.
Those ain't crash prices.

Dispensary Medical
Quality

Av $/ 1p
Low -
Medium $ 1000.00
High $ 1675.00
Dispensary Recreational
Quality

Av $/ 1p
Low -
Medium $ 1250.00
High $ 2250.00

Almost every dispensary in OR routinely offers ounces at $50.

[speeder]

Originally Posted by KevinTodd

Almost every dispensary in OR routinely offers ounces at $50.

They must have a dump truck full of Mexican brown left over from the '70s out behind the store.

[MauleM5-235]

Right after OR passed the legalization law, a group approached me about being a partner in a business that was going to provide support to the growers and sellers in OR. I was going to be the "General Counsel" for the group. They pressed me pretty hard on it and tried to convince me how they were going to make a killing. They claimed to have $10 M in VC money - which was likely true. I spent a lot of time researching and had multiple meetings over several months.

In the end I was convinced that there would be a wringing out of the smaller businesses as part of the consolidation that would make the marijuana business look a lot like the alcohol business - most of the volume controlled by a few major players. In the end I said No because I was not convinced they had the business knowledge & money to survive the consolidation. Don't know what that group did eventually but I suspect they never actually pulled the trigger.

A couple of months ago I had drinks with a couple of friends including the owner of a Portland based chain of retail shops who said they are now buying pot from growers for less than the production cost. He said they are able to also buy the equipment of failed growers and retailers right now for almost nothing and are just cherry picking the good equipment to store for later because the prices are too good to pass up.

My point - I am far from a business genius. If I could see this coming it was obvious.

[Mark Henry]

My opinion on the the subject is....oh wow...what was I talking about?
Are you going to eat those doritos?

[KFC911]

I normally don't offer investment advice....but I will just once....

Don't do as I have with ACB....TWICE !!!!

I should've just bought a few bales of pot and dumped 'em in the ocean instead....GONE!

Imma gone sit on these bales I still have....it's ALL or 'nuthin

Cheech & Chong rules...and I suck at pot.

[red-beard]

With my dyslexia, I keep reading the headline as "Oregon Glue Pot"

[GH85Carrera]

Originally Posted by MauleM5-235

Right after OR passed the legalization law, a group approached me about being a partner in a business that was going to provide support to the growers and sellers in OR. I was going to be the "General Counsel" for the group. They pressed me pretty hard on it and tried to convince me how they were going to make a killing. They claimed to have $10 M in VC money - which was likely true. I spent a lot of time researching and had multiple meetings over several months.

In the end I was convinced that there would be a wringing out of the smaller businesses as part of the consolidation that would make the marijuana business look a lot like the alcohol business - most of the volume controlled by a few major players. In the end I said No because I was not convinced they had the business knowledge & money to survive the consolidation. Don't know what that group did eventually but I suspect they never actually pulled the trigger.

A couple of months ago I had drinks with a couple of friends including the owner of a Portland based chain of retail shops who said they are now buying pot from growers for less than the production cost. He said they are able to also buy the equipment of failed growers and retailers right now for almost nothing and are just cherry picking the good equipment to store for later because the prices are too good to pass up.

My point - I am far from a business genius. If I could see this coming it was obvious.

One of my friends of a friend does just that with oil field equipment. He waits for the cyclic boom or bust, and in a bust buys equipment for pennies on the dollar. Sit on it, and in a frenzy boom, sells the same equipment for a nice profit. The only trick is to know just what equipment is good, and what is junk, and buy the good stuff, and have a place to store it all for cheap.

[RWebb]

Here is a photo of a City Transit bus dropping off a passenger...