And now, back to the economy...

[widebody911]

So, any guesses on where the economy is going now that the war is over?

A co-worker did an LDAP search today here @ HP and found 849 new entries with the flag showing the RIF flag (~1300 total).

I was reading some dreck a couple days ago where some economist was explaining some economic indicator or another and what it meant.

I have a simpler metric. The economy will turn around when the jobs come back. Period. What little we have left of an economy has been leeched out of mortgage refis, money-losing financing deals, and the accumulation of consumer debt. If the other shoe drops before the jobs start coming back, it's going to get real ugly, real fast.

I've heard people blame the massive outsourcing on the 'wage inflation' of the 90's. Yes, salaries in some fields went up, although the rate of executive compensation outstripped even that. OTOH, lower level jobs that didn't pay that much to start with, like customer service, phone support, and clerical-type stuff are also going over.

I don't think everything should be outsourced just because it can. Our economy depends on the fact that employees of one company are the customers of another. It's shortsighted to think that eliminating all of the employees won't have an adverse affect on the big picture. (but it's "for the shareholders!")

I think we'll look back with regret at the major outsourcing of today just as US companies looked on with regret at the rise of the Asian economic empire in the 80's. *We* gave them the materials and skills to slaughter us in manufacturing. Now we're handing them the rest. Economically, it's the same as funnelling weapons to various middle-east countries in the 80's - it made sense at the time, but nobody thought about the long-term consequences. A small minority benefits from it now, and is financially insulated from the eventual negative outcome.

[BlueSkyJaunte]

I'm just thankful that I'm not going to be in charge of a small group in Bangalore (which was our dept.'s original plan). Instead we'll be hiring a Ph.D. locally to write C++ code. Should be a real shock when they find out they're being supervised by a lowly B.S.

Anyone out there have the unique combination of badass C++ skills, an industrial engineering degree of some sort, mucho experience with manufacturing simulation, and a willingness to relocate to AZ?

[island911]

I don't get you Thom. . . your down on the US govt for giving Iraqi contracts to US companies, then you're down on the US companies for give business to other countries. hmmm.

Anyway; If the various govt. enities would give small businesses a break (currently too much hassle-factor) then the US would be a much more stable place.

Instead, the left is insisting "US companies" be responsible for all sorts of employee BS. It's regressive; leading to big-business as the only one that can absorb the overhead costs.

Then, as we know, they(BB) can call up India or China. (I don't believe China requires 3-months Paternity-Leave be given to lesbian-life-partners of women whom have recently adopted a child. )

[widebody911]

Originally posted by island911
I don't get you Thom
Because the purpose of my life is to be a continuos PIYA...
. . . your [sic] down on the US govt for giving Iraqi contracts to US companies
Incorrect - I'm down on members of the Bush administration awarding contracts to companies that they have close financial ties to (ie ones of which they sat on the board) without any sort of competitive bidding process.
then you're down on the US companies for give[sic] business to other countries.
Again, I'm down on US companies sending US jobs overseas, taking bread off of American tables, and putting the difference in the pockets of the executive class. It's a short-term play which will hurt the company in the long run.
[B]Anyway; If the various govt. enities would give small businesses a break (currently too much hassle-factor) then the US would be a much more stable place.
The 'hassle factor' is only thing standing between your children and 16 hour days in a sweat shop drinking sewer water. SE Asia doesn't have the 'hassle factor' and the working conditions there are well known.

Instead, the left is insisting "US companies" be responsible for all sorts of employee BS.
Again, this 'employee BS' is what has raised your standard of living.

Then, as we know, they(BB) can call up India or China. (I don't believe China requires 3-months Paternity-Leave be given to lesbian-life-partners of women whom have recently adopted a child. )
Please cite. I did a quick Google search and couldn't find the reference. There have to be sensible boundaries on anything. I'm not advocating some far-fetched 'liberal' workers paradise. Once clear away the hyperbole, the stark fact remains that the 'globalization' movement is great for the short-term financial gain of a priveleged few, but will fsck over everyone else in the long run. No jobs = no ecomony.

[RallyJon]

The economy will turn around when the jobs come back. Period.

Semi-colon. Sounds like you're a union man.

The economy is strongest when productivity is high and there are still enough unemployed people around who will work for pennies. Once things heat up so much that everyone has a job, the economy goes to Hell again. If you think back to the go-go years in the mid-90s, this is the exact pattern. By 1999-2000, wages were insane, employers were desparate, and doom was on the horizon.

Right now the U.S. economy is lean, mean and ready for growth. Keep an eye on those 10-Qs and you'll see what I mean. Not just the ones that makes the headlines, but the smaller companies that don't dominate their market. These rank and file firms have strong earnings growth and backlog is up (means future sales will be up). In most sectors, the pipeline is squeaky clean, too. That means consumer demand will drive production very directly.

The gun is loaded and cocked--that much is clear. Whether the consumer pulls the trigger remains to be seen...

But we're a long, long way from the sort of economy where you can't find workers and even deadwood makes six figures. Thank God for that!

[widebody911]

Originally posted by RallyJon
The economy is strongest when productivity is high and there are still enough unemployed people around who will work for pennies.
So, you're willing to work for pennies for the sake of the economy? Bully for you. I'll send word down to HR and we'll get that taken care of ASAP.

Somehow, you think our consumer economy is best off when people can't afford the stuff they're making? Then who in the hell is going to buy the stuff?

Right now the U.S. economy is lean, mean and ready for growth.
And I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.

Keep an eye on those 10-Qs
You mean the ones that keep getting re-stated?

These rank and file firms have strong earnings growth and backlog is up (means future sales will be up).
Please cite.

In most sectors, the pipeline is squeaky clean, too. That means consumer demand will drive production very directly.
Oh, you mean the consumer demand that's been driven by CC and refi debt for the past 3 years? That well is about empty...

The gun is loaded and cocked--that much is clear.
To whom?

Whether the consumer pulls the trigger remains to be seen...
(*looks in the well*) Not today...

[/B]

[island911]

Originally posted by widebody911
"Once clear away[sic] the hyperbole, the stark fact remains that the 'globalization' movement is great for the short-term financial gain of a priveleged few, but will fsck over everyone else in the long run. No jobs = no ecomony. "

The "balance-point" of the economy is fluid; always changing. You are not going to affect any changes to the natural balance by blaming individuals for there choice of purchase(s). (either goods or servivces).

What will change the balance (in the US's favor) is ensuring the US business environment is "the place of choice." (for starting & continuing business)

People want to have their business thrive. The left want businesses to be responsible for all sorts of nit-picky items. . .and the the number and size of the "nit-picks" keeps growing. THIS is grossly changing the balance, giving places like china an advantage. If you don't want jobs to go over seas, quit piling-on (in fact, roll-back) external responsibilities to US businesses. (at federal & state)

[turbo6bar]

I sure am glad I'm self-employed.

Thom, you seem to believe that sending jobs overseas is the motive of every executive, but the fact is USA wants cheap products. Give Joe Blow product A for $3, made in USA, and give Joe product B for $1, made in China, and I bet he'll grab product B.

Once the dam has a leak, it's hard to stop. The companies cannot compete with foreign labor so they are faced with a hard decision: go overseas or risk going out of business.

I think the solution is for the entire population to make sacrifice for the overall good of the nation and its people. This means everyone has to give a little.

A couple years ago, buying New Balance running shoes made in USA was easy. It's getting harder now. I have to pass over several models before I can find the ones NOT made in China. Yeah, I'm sure someone could blow my spending habits to pieces, but at least I try.

Regards,
Jurgen

[RallyJon]

Thom, you have to read past the front page--the companies that are crashing and burning make the mainstream news, not the ones that are rebounding well.

As for your core point about employment, I'll let history provide the proof. People spend based on how they feel, not based on what they actually have. I understand that 5.8% vs 3.8% unemployment is no fun for that 2%, but the impact on the total demand in the economy is minor compared to how the rest of the people feel about their prospects.

[BlueSkyJaunte]

So nobody wants a job?