The Official PPOT Corona Virus Prediction Thread

[McLovin]

There’s a bunch of CV threads and posts, but let’s put predictions in one place, it’ll be interesting to see 1, 2, 6, 12 months out who had the best crystal ball.

Try to keep it predictions only (not what policy is or should be, etc).

Here’s mine cut and paste from another thread to start:

Here’s my prediction:

Will some deadly virus come and wipe out a big part of humanity? Maybe someday. But this isn’t it.

Summary: When we look back in this, we’ll see that all this panic was way overblown. Because we will see that the deadliness of this virus is way less than is being portrayed. This is because the death rate is being so highly skewed because countless millions are getting it and recovering, but not being counted in the death rate calculation. When the dust settles, it’ll be found that this isn’t more deadly than the flu. Most of the damage caused will be self-inflicted panic driven damage.

Longer version: Ah, forget that, too much typing. But I also predict Tom Hanks will help the panic subside. When he and other high profile people (including maybe even Trump himself) are shown to have contracted it, and then just recovered just like from the flu, peoples’ fears will lessen.
Right now the media is treating this like AIDs in the 90s. Like if you “test positive” it’s a death sentence. It’s causing a lot of fear, because like the flu and similar viruses, it’s simply impossible to stop the spread. Combine that fact with the fact that many are treating this like a highly deadly disease, and panic is understandable.
All the extreme efforts now (canceling NBA season, colleges closing down etc) are to slow down the spread. Which is ok. But it isn’t a long term solution. It’s here, and it’ll always be here, but the impact won’t in the long run be much.
A vaccine will be developed. But even though widely available, many won’t even choose to get it (just like many don’t get the flu shot, despite flu causing tens of thousands of deaths per year).
A year from now (probably way less) no one will be talking about this (other than discussing the financial and political impacts it may have).
The big and most interesting story won’t be the virus itself, but human reaction to the panic, the impact that unprecedented worldwide access to the internet and social media had on spreading panic, and the social, economic and political implications of all of that.

Anyways, since we’re recording predictions for posterity, there’s mine.