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-   -   It's earthquake weather (http://forums.pelicanparts.com/showthread.php?t=1069920)

sammyg2 08-11-2020 10:40 AM

It's earthquake weather
 
Hope they're wrong.

Quote:

San Andreas Fault earthquake swarm sparks fears of ‘Big One’
Seismologists say chance of larger quake is 'significantly elevated'

By Julia Musto

A swarm of minor earthquakes near California's Salton Sea is raising concern about the potential for a larger temblor at the state's San Andreas Fault.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the dozens of tremors began in the early morning on Monday, ranging in size from a 2.6 magnitude quake to a 4.6 magnitude quake northwest of Palm Springs under the southeastern part of the Salton Sea.

The swarm marks only the fourth time in almost 90 years of modern seismology records that such an incident has occurred in that part of the Golden State.

The area is overdue for a "Big One." Larger-scale quakes on the San Andreas Fault are expected every 200 years on average, and the southern area has not seen action since 1680 to 1690.

According to The Los Angeles Times, there is generally a 20% chance of a magnitude 7 or higher earthquake on the fault over the next 30 years.

"During this earthquake swarm, the probability of larger earthquakes in this region is significantly greater than usual. The southernmost section of the San Andreas Fault is capable of rupturing in large-magnitude earthquakes (magnitude 7+), but the last earthquake that strong was more than 300 years ago," the Geological Survey said in a Monday statement.

"In a typical week, there is approximately a 1-in-10,000 chance of a magnitude 7+ earthquake on the southernmost San Andreas Fault. That probability is significantly elevated while swarm activity remains high," they wrote.

A calculated 1-in-100 chance of a high-magnitude quake in the next week is a worrying rise from the normal 1-in-10,000 odds.

The last time a similar swarm happened was almost four years ago, prompting San Bernardino officials to close City Hall for two days, though no bigger quake occurred.

This time, the smaller quakes are notably farther away from the San Andreas fault than the 2016 swarm.

That said, the San Andreas Fault is dangerous enough to inspire a 2015 blockbuster disaster movie featuring Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, as well as numerous references in similar films.

And in the worst-case scenario, it has the ability to unleash a devastating 8.2 magnitude quake that would rip through the state.

While large earthquakes can easily happen with no detectable warning at all, California has a history of smaller earthquakes preceding "Mega Quakes."

In 1857, the San Andreas Fault saw a 7.8 magnitude temblor preceded by two smaller-scale quakes farther north and, in 1992, a 6.1 magnitude quake in Joshua Tree National Park kicked off a series of strengthening quakes.

A 7.1 magnitude earthquake in July 2019 was the most powerful quake to hit the state in two decades.
https://www.foxnews.com/weather/a-swarm-of-small-earthquakes-in-california-san-andreas-fault-questions

masraum 08-11-2020 10:45 AM

Wow, 100x higher chance. Hopefully, they are wrong. Good luck, folks!

Seahawk 08-11-2020 10:47 AM

Having grown up in Southern California and having experienced a few quakes (later a few in San Diego) I can say unequivocally that I'd rather do the Housewife's of the Weather Channel Hurricane Show than a large quake.

The Housewife's of the Weather Channel is really annoying but I can see the thing coming.

Best.

vash 08-11-2020 10:59 AM

scary. real scary.

but as a civil engineer - job security.

sammyg2 08-11-2020 11:03 AM

I've been through a lot of earthquakes, but they've either been relatively small or far away. Enuff to shake things but not to do much damage.
But the san andreas is about 30 miles away where it goes past san berdo, and if it breaks that won't be far enough.

GH85Carrera 08-11-2020 11:03 AM

We had a 4.5 earthquake about 5 years back. There was a loud BOOM that sounded like a large empty dumpster being dropped on the street out front. Then the floor had a wave of motion roll through. We have a concrete slab floor with carpet in my home office, and it moved. The door to my closet started rattling, and I even went over and pushed on it to stop the rattle, and it started rattling again so the wave was still moving but I could not feel it.

Zero damage to our house or area. I can't imagine a big one like Japan had at 9.1 a few years back. I will take a risk of tornadoes any day. They hit one very small area and the civilization just a few blocks way is fine. Large earthquakes or hurricanes wipe out huge areas and take years to recover.

Good luck. I will dig out the picture of the lawn chair in the back yard that was knocked over Sammy posts when the weather is bad in other areas.

sammyg2 08-11-2020 11:07 AM

The lawn chair is fine, just keep those flying cows away. ;)

GH85Carrera 08-11-2020 11:29 AM

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1597173863.JPG

This is the restaurant at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, OK. Really!

GH85Carrera 08-11-2020 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by afterburn 549 (Post 10981635)
Like ants living on a stove top , hoping no one turns it on.
Perhaps the the answer is obvious or it will be made obvious?

Millions of humans live on the sides of volcanoes, or in the path of the destruction. The entire gulf coast and east coast of the US will have a hurricane again. No maybe, it will happen. Just like the "the big one" that is 100 years overdue already. It simply will happen, no one know for sure just when.

Look how many people live along the Mississippi river. From Lake Itasca, Minnesota to the gulf millions of people live within the floodwaters of the river. It will flood again. 100% guarantee. Floods kill more people than any other weather event.

Pick your location. There is risk. I am 100% safe from tsunamis. That is certain!

70SATMan 08-11-2020 12:44 PM

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1597178654.jpg

IROC 08-11-2020 12:52 PM

We had a 5.1 on Sunday...

onewhippedpuppy 08-11-2020 01:10 PM

So the odds of an earthquake are now better than the odds of dying from CV? Time to panic!!!:D

pete3799 08-11-2020 01:16 PM

Quick.......get some toilet paper before it's too late.

unclebilly 08-11-2020 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pete3799 (Post 10981744)
Quick.......get some toilet paper before it's too late.

What? stores near you still have toilet paper?

Evans, Marv 08-11-2020 01:50 PM

I check area earthquake activity on a fairly regular basis and happened to notice this activity in Niland and commented to my wife about them. We have small ones on a semi regular basis and got rocked really well during the one that hit Calexico some years back. Even though the faults in the area aren't directly connected with the San Andreas, I recently read about how they are learning faults are more interconnected than once thought. I went through a major earthquake in 1952 in the small town of Tehachapi, CA. It devastated the town. If you're curious, do a seach on it. I'm glad we live in an area of few, local faults nearby and over a good base of bedrock.

sammyg2 08-11-2020 02:08 PM

Well before my time, but the wik says:
Quote:

The 1952 Kern County earthquake occurred on July 21 in the southern San Joaquin Valley and measured 7.3 on the moment magnitude scale.
The main shock occurred at 4:52 am Pacific Daylight Time (11:52 UTC), killed 12 people and injured hundreds, and caused an estimated $60 million in property damage.
A small sector of damage near Bealville corresponded to a maximum Mercalli intensity of XI (Extreme), though this intensity rating was not representative of the majority of damage.
The earthquake occurred on the White Wolf Fault near the community of Wheeler Ridge and was the strongest to occur in California since the 1906 San Francisco earthquake.

The town of Tehachapi suffered the greatest damage and loss of life from the earthquake, though other locations in Kern County experienced significant damage as well, but its effects were widely felt throughout central and southern California.
The July mainshock had a significant aftershock sequence that persisted into July and August with many magnitude 5+ events with intensities of V (Moderate) to VII (Very strong).
Six of these aftershocks occurred on the day of the mainshock, but the strongest aftershock came on August 22 as a M5.8 event that had a maximum perceived intensity of VIII (Severe) and resulted in the deaths of two people and caused an additional $10 million in property damage.

flatbutt 08-11-2020 03:40 PM

Well wouldn't that complete the trifecta. Fingers crossed for them being wrong.

Bill Douglas 08-11-2020 04:03 PM

Good luck. I'm also not a huge fan of earth quakes.

rcooled 08-11-2020 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Douglas (Post 10981989)
I'm also not a huge fan of earth quakes.

Here in CA, earthquakes were always a bit of a "WOW" moment for me since I first felt one back in 1975. That was until Oct. of 1989, when a 6.9 magnitude 'quake hit about 10mi. from here. I take them much more seriously now...

Bill Douglas 08-11-2020 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rcooled (Post 10982033)
I take them much more seriously now...

Me too. I'd never noticed one until I was about 21 years old. I always thought they were those things that made the house plant leaves waver a bit, or gave you that "wooo too much coffee" feeling.

Then, post Christchurch earthquake, all the earthquakes have been big ones. Walls moving 100mm back and forth, a bit hard to stand up. One even made the sea recede about 200 meters :eek:

onewhippedpuppy 08-12-2020 03:15 AM

Having experienced a few very mild earthquakes I’m with Glenn. I’ll take tornadoes and hurricanes all day long. What a creepy and disorienting feeling.

Tobra 08-12-2020 07:18 AM

I was in SF in 1989, it was impressive

vash 08-12-2020 08:14 AM

earthquakes are awful.

but in general, CA is sorta prepared. our infrastructure is designed against catastrophic failure. it doesnt mean you wont get beaned in the head by a brick. but the new bridges wont disappear below your car. that's the plan.

that said, it would still be a nightmare. most people i know, live "ready". i wont even let my truck fuel gauge drop below half. (till i get to AZ)

JavaBrewer 08-12-2020 09:25 AM

I'm in North county San Diego ~ 20 years and just a few rumbles and shakes now and then so far... My understanding is that our location is on lots of bedrock and should a big one hit SA we will hopefully be somewhat protected. My home Santa Barbara likely not as much, but it's a stick home built in the '60s and has gone through several good sized quakes with no damage.

I was in Tokyo for the big quake, in the bus heading to Narita. We pulled out of the hotel entrance and at the first light in front of Starbucks it hit. I was stranded there for 24 hours...managed to find operating transport to Narita for the next day departure. Plane was at 10% capacity...most could not get there for the flight.

Growing up in SoCal I have lived through a few memorable quakes. The Japan quake was very different. Many hours after the initial big hit the ground was still moving. We were stranded in the bus terminal (T-CAT) the night of and the coat hangers never stopped moving. I headed to a Japanese equivalent of 7-11 for some beer, sushi, and chips and made it a party in the middle of the terminal. I was not aware of the loss of life far North due to Tsunami...so sad.

vash 08-12-2020 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JavaBrewer (Post 10982843)
I'm in North county San Diego ~ 20 years and just a few rumbles and shakes now and then so far... My understanding is that our location is on lots of bedrock and should a big one hit SA we will hopefully be somewhat protected. My home Santa Barbara likely not as much, but it's a stick home built in the '60s and has gone through several good sized quakes with no damage.

I was in Tokyo for the big quake, in the bus heading to Narita. We pulled out of the hotel entrance and at the first light in front of Starbucks it hit. I was stranded there for 24 hours...managed to find operating transport to Narita for the next day departure. Plane was at 10% capacity...most could not get there for the flight.

Growing up in SoCal I have lived through a few memorable quakes. The Japan quake was very different. Many hours after the initial big hit the ground was still moving. We were stranded in the bus terminal (T-CAT) the night of and the coat hangers never stopped moving. I headed to a Japanese equivalent of 7-11 for some beer, sushi, and chips and made it a party in the middle of the terminal. I was not aware of the loss of life far North due to Tsunami...so sad.

tokyo is wild!! i was in the train station and i noticed these HUGE columns in the underground areas. i was thinking..that makes no sense to put a column that big in a crowded walkway. until i went outside..it dawned on me that those giant columns were the foundations to the skyscrapers built above the underground city. blew my mind. i bet it is an extra pucker factor when the world shakes over there.

3rd_gear_Ted 08-12-2020 10:04 AM

When the big one comes, head to Barstow.
When I consulted for the DoD, I saw the maps.
The USMC @ Nebo & Yermo have layouts for giant tent cities. The spot I staked out will be called Nebo Heights when I get there to my corner lot :)

GH85Carrera 08-12-2020 10:13 AM

It has to suck real bad at home to ever WANT to go to Barstow. Maybe another garden spot like Boron, CA or Needles. For sure not the mental picture people think of when they think of California.

The good news for Barstow is it is the start of I-40 headed east out of there.

sammyg2 08-12-2020 10:45 AM

LOL detail of faults under and around Barstow:


http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1597257923.gif

sammyg2 08-12-2020 10:47 AM

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1597258044.gif

tabs 08-12-2020 11:56 AM

Last year they had a 7 in Lone Pine which I felt here in LV..then there were literally hundreds of after shocks which I could feel a slight swaying in the house.

Go directly west of Lone Pine and see that that fault zone intersects the San Andreas just south of San Louis Obispo in the Coastal mountain range.

sammyg2 08-12-2020 12:07 PM

Quote:

The 1872 Owens Valley earthquake – also known as the Lone Pine earthquake – struck on March 26 at 02:30 local time in the Owens Valley (California, along the east side of the Sierra Nevada), with the epicenter near the town of Lone Pine.

Its magnitude has been estimated at Mw 7.4 to 7.9, with a maximum Mercalli Intensity of X (Extreme).
It was one of the largest earthquakes to hit California in recorded history and was similar in size to the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. Twenty-seven people were killed and fifty-six were injured.

The earthquake resulted from sudden vertical movement of 15 to 20 feet (4.6 to 6.1 m) and right-lateral movement of 35 to 40 feet (11 to 12 m) on the Lone Pine Fault and part of the Owens Valley Fault.
These faults are part of a twin system of normal faults that run along the base of two parallel mountain ranges; the Sierra Nevada on the west and the Inyo Mountains on the east of the Owens Valley.
It created fault scars from north of Big Pine, 55 miles (89 km) north of Lone Pine, to Haiwee Reservoir (30 miles (48 km)) south of Lone Pine.
the wik


The white dots are sites of earthquakes of mag 3.0 or larger during a 10 year period.
Not zackly stable

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1597262994.jpg

sammyg2 08-12-2020 12:15 PM

Does anyone else find this kind of creepy?

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1597263272.jpg

flatbutt 08-12-2020 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Douglas (Post 10982177)
Me too. I'd never noticed one until I was about 21 years old. I always thought they were those things that made the house plant leaves waver a bit, or gave you that "wooo too much coffee" feeling.

Then, post Christchurch earthquake, all the earthquakes have been big ones. Walls moving 100mm back and forth, a bit hard to stand up. One even made the sea recede about 200 meters :eek:

100 mm? :eek:

Evans, Marv 08-12-2020 01:59 PM

Tehachapi 1952. I think it was around 11 people killed that morning in town (pop. less than 2K). A few funny stories were told to my dad who was the manager of the Standard station at the main intersection in town. One: A guy came into his station a couple of days later with black eyes. Told my dad he slept on the outside of the bed with his wife. When the quake went off, he stood up in bed and jumped out right into the wall. The quake had walked the bed across the room so his side was near the wall. Two: Of course everyone was paniced to get out of their houses. Two neighbor couples ran out of their houses and were standing out in front. The men were standing together talking as were the wives. The men noticed the women snickering and looked at each other and realized they were both naked.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1597269458.jpg

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1597269480.jpg

dad911 08-12-2020 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tobra (Post 10982646)
I was in SF in 1989, it was impressive

I fell asleep reading about Nostradamus earthquake prediction and woke up to news reports of that earthquake. Very freaky.

Bill Douglas 08-12-2020 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flatbutt (Post 10983219)
100 mm? :eek:

Yes, a bit scary. I kept thinking is this going to get worse, there are much more fun things to die of than an earthquake. Quite lot of noise too. Someone said it's the nails in the house pulling out then back into their original locations. Cats and dogs don't know whether to run or not so they stared at me for an example.

It's a wooden house so doesn't crack like concrete.

Bill Douglas 08-12-2020 11:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sammyg2 (Post 10983098)
Does anyone else find this kind of creepy?

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1597263272.jpg

Yep, that's a lot of people to die in an earthquake.

Evans, Marv 08-13-2020 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Douglas (Post 10983761)
Yes, a bit scary. I kept thinking is this going to get worse, there are much more fun things to die of than an earthquake. Quite lot of noise too. Someone said it's the nails in the house pulling out then back into their original locations. Cats and dogs don't know whether to run or not so they stared at me for an example.

It's a wooden house so doesn't crack like concrete.

In the earthquake we went through in 1952, I was awakened in the beginning light of morning by what sounded like a freight train bearing down. My bed started moving, & I jumped out & looked out the window. A big tree outside had a large, horizontal limb that started moving violently up & down & I realized what was going on,even though I'd never experienced one. I ran to my sisters' bunk beds & woke up my sister on the top, who jumped down to the floor from the top. We had to struggle to wake up our little sister on the bottom bumk. As we ran into the hallway, we could see our parents (one bare bulb in the center) running toward us from the other end, but none of us were making any headway. It was really loud and supposedly lasted 40+ seconds. Finally as we were all running through the front room toward the front door, one of my sisters sat down on the couch & we had to pull her up & outside. Ouside on the front porch, my dad wanted to go in for jackets, but every time he tried there was an aftershock. Eventually he just went inside & got jackets for us. My cat disappeared for three days before and came nonchalently walking in a couple of hours afterwards. I remember seeing horses rearing and neighing in their pens (sort like they were panicked) for a few days before as we drove by & asked my mother what was wrong with them. We had a long, side yard with some fruit trees lined up. I remember sitting on the yard days later when a "rolling" aftershock came and could see the ground slightly undulatiing.

Tobra 08-13-2020 10:23 AM

That is a lot of dead people Bill, especially an earthquake in a sparsely populated area like that.
Quote:

Originally Posted by dad911 (Post 10983263)
I fell asleep reading about Nostradamus earthquake prediction and woke up to news reports of that earthquake. Very freaky.

At least we know who to blame now.

3rd_gear_Ted 08-13-2020 11:01 AM

If your TV is still working, the earthquake was in the desert or mountains.
No TV means L.A. region was epicenter

I always turn off my house power, the Big bear quake in 95 had the neighborhood down to 70 volts. All of my neighbors had microwaves and TV's that were toasted.


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