The vaccine

[cabmandone]

If I'm not mistaken, the Delta variant hit the UK before it hit here.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/224113/coronavirus-infections-rising-exponentially-england-react/

“We found strong evidence for exponential growth in infection from late May to early June in the REACT-1 study, with a doubling time of 11 days on average for England. These data coincide with the Delta variant becoming dominant and show the importance of continuing to monitor infection rates and variants of concern in the community.”

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by beepbeep

This is great visualisation.

(or it is all fake, made by Lizard people and Bill Gates in order to spread 5G chips).

Not saying it's fake... just saying I'm not sure that shows enough to actually draw a conclusions as to whether the vaccines are doing their job or not. What I mean is, could the reduction in deaths from the third wave be attributed to more factors than just the higher number of vaccinated people? What was the average age of the person infected in the third wave vs the others? With all we've learned from the first to now, were those who were likely to have a poor outcome if infected taking other precautions beyond being vaccinated? Were deaths also lower because we are now better able to treat people?
I don't believe it's being honest show vaccinated and then deaths unless all the factors that weigh into this are included.

[javadog]

^^^ To that point, the first factor I would look at is the Delta variant itself. It has been described as significantly less deadly than the original, that factor could explain the graph as much as anything else. We know those that push the vaccines don’t mention that much, they want to lay all of the credit with their vaccines. I’m not aware of any study that answered that question, the one just coming out of Israel now doesn’t look good for the vaccines.

[Steve Carlton]

Originally Posted by javadog

It has been described as significantly less deadly than the original, that factor could explain the graph as much as anything else.

Where?

I don't know if the monoclonal antibody treatment (like Trump got) is in wide use yet, but it's very effective if used early on or even prophylactically. It's being heavily promoted now.

"Some data suggest the Delta variant might cause more severe illness than previous strains in unvaccinated persons. In two different studies from Canada and Scotland, patients infected with the Delta variant were more likely to be hospitalized than patients infected with Alpha or the original virus strains."

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/delta-variant.html

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by javadog

It has been described as significantly less deadly than the original

Actually, they don't know at the current time.

https://asm.org/Articles/2021/July/How-Dangerous-is-the-Delta-Variant-B-1-617-2
July 30th
Research is ongoing to determine if Delta infection is associated with increased hospitalization and death

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2021/08/421171/how-dangerous-delta-variant-heres-what-science-says
Aug 5th
There’s not yet consensus on whether the Delta variant makes people sicker.

https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/5-things-to-know-delta-variant-covid
Aug 18th (updated)
One important question is whether the Delta strain will make you sicker than the original virus. But many scientists say they don’t know yet.

[island911]

This young Brit has something to say https://citizenfreepress.com/breaking/vaccine-truth-bomb/

[beepbeep]

Originally Posted by cabmando

Not sure that shows enough to actually draw a conclusions as to whether the vaccines are doing their job or not.

It shows that death rate has been slashed to 10% of what is has been prior to vaccinations. 10x lower.
If that is not enough proof, then I do not know what you need as a proof.

Vaccines work. It is mostly unvaccinated that die nowadays and their health insurance rates are likely to skyrocket.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/08/covid-costs-billions-so-delta-to-charge-unvaxxed-airline-workers-200-month/

[island911]

Originally Posted by beepbeep

It shows that death rate has been slashed to 10% of what is has been prior to vaccinations. 10x lower.
If that is not enough proof, then I do not know what you need as a proof.

Vaccines work. It is mostly unvaccinated that die nowadays and their health insurance rates are likely to skyrocket.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/08/covid-costs-billions-so-delta-to-charge-unvaxxed-airline-workers-200-month/

Well we certainly haven't learned any other way to help keep people alive. Oh wait...

Seriously, it's sloppy to conclude that there is but one variable here.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by beepbeep

It shows that death rate has been slashed to 10% of what is has been prior to vaccinations. 10x lower.
If that is not enough proof, then I do not know what you need as a proof.

Vaccines work. It is mostly unvaccinated that die nowadays and their health insurance rates are likely to skyrocket.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/08/covid-costs-billions-so-delta-to-charge-unvaxxed-airline-workers-200-month/

I get that it shows the reduction in deaths. But again more goes into it than just vaccinations.
I'm not questioning whether the vaccines work. At the time, how much of an increase was there in cases? What I mean is, if you look at Florida where cases have gone up considerably, deaths aren't following the sharp increase in cases. In fact, if you look at it, Florida has considerably more cases than New York but New York is still has something like 20,000 more deaths. So is it vaccines working when deaths don't increase with cases? Are you following me?

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by Steve Carlton

Where?

I don't know if the monoclonal antibody treatment (like Trump got) is in wide use yet, but it's very effective if used early on or even prophylactically. It's being heavily promoted now.

"Some data suggest the Delta variant might cause more severe illness than previous strains in unvaccinated persons. In two different studies from Canada and Scotland, patients infected with the Delta variant were more likely to be hospitalized than patients infected with Alpha or the original virus strains."

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/delta-variant.html

If I'm not mistaken, the big issue with the Delta variant is that both vaccinated and unvaccinated can get severe cases. It's just that the unvaccinated or more likely to get a severe case (?) and both can spread the virus if they have severe cases.

[javadog]

I ran across something the other day and it indicated that the vaccinated made up a higher percentage of hospitalizations than the unvaccinated. It’s posted here somewhere in one of these threads. I don’t recall where the survey or study was done, who did it. It was not a great difference, maybe 52% to 48%, or something like that. But it wasn’t the 90/10 Unvaccinated/vaccinated that we’ve heard about so much in the media.

There was another statistic in there that didn’t favor the vaccinated, I don’t recall exactly what it was.

[cabmandone]

There was a claim made that vaccinated outnumbered unvaccinated hospitalized people in the UK but that wasn't true.

[javadog]

I think this was something else, I remember it being more detailed.

[speeder]

Originally Posted by island911

Well we certainly haven't learned any other way to help keep people alive. Oh wait...

Seriously, it's sloppy to conclude that there is but one variable here.

And it's unbelievably stupid to deny the main variable, repeatedly, for some political reason.

[cabmandone]

I agree Denis... but you're not going to like this... The main variable is age and general health of the individual. Vaccinated or unvaccinated, death becomes a less likely outcome the younger and healthier the person is.

[aschen]

Originally Posted by javadog

I ran across something the other day and it indicated that the vaccinated made up a higher percentage of hospitalizations than the unvaccinated. It’s posted here somewhere in one of these threads. I don’t recall where the survey or study was done, who did it. It was not a great difference, maybe 52% to 48%, or something like that. But it wasn’t the 90/10 Unvaccinated/vaccinated that we’ve heard about so much in the media.

There was another statistic in there that didn’t favor the vaccinated, I don’t recall exactly what it was.

It was from a single week of data from a single area small with a small sample size. It looked like he tortured the data to reach his desired headline to me. He gave a reference of level of unvaccinated to include everyone unvaccinated at 48% which included those under 12. His death rate of 52% vaccinated surely was primarily elderly of which the baseline vaccination is munch higher.

There was a ton of data available on that Nevada site. He could have done an earnest analysis if he wanted to, but didn't. I spent 10 min trying to follow his analysis and then gave up.


left leaning and right leaning outlets are equally guilty in creative statistics to suit their agenda. Everything I have seen that attempts to be reasonably honest with their analysis and sample selection paints a pretty rosey pic for vaccine effectiveness for preventing serious illness.

[Steve Carlton]

Originally Posted by cabmando

I agree Denis... but you're not going to like this... The main variable is age and general health of the individual. Vaccinated or unvaccinated, death becomes a less likely outcome the younger and healthier the person is.

I think the main variable is if one's been vaccinated or has natural immunity from having had COVID before. I agree that health and youth improves the odds if sick.

[Steve Carlton]

Originally Posted by cabmando

If I'm not mistaken, the big issue with the Delta variant is that both vaccinated and unvaccinated can get severe cases. It's just that the unvaccinated or more likely to get a severe case (?) and both can spread the virus if they have severe cases.

I believe the jury is out on the severity of illness from Delta. For me, the big issue is how much more contagious Delta is, and that it can break through vaccine/natural immunity more. I think just having Delta is all that's needed to make one contagious. The viral load is much higher. That's why the CDC recommends wearing a mask indoors, even if you've been vaccinated or had it before.

[javadog]

Originally Posted by aschen

It was from a single week of data from a single area small with a small sample size. It looked like he tortured the data to reach his desired headline to me. He gave a reference of level of unvaccinated to include everyone unvaccinated at 48% which included those under 12. His death rate of 52% vaccinated surely was primarily elderly of which the baseline vaccination is munch higher.

There was a ton of data available on that Nevada site. He could have done an earnest analysis if he wanted to, but didn't. I spent 10 min trying to follow his analysis and then gave up.


left leaning and right leaning outlets are equally guilty in creative statistics to suit their agenda. Everything I have seen that attempts to be reasonably honest with their analysis and sample selection paints a pretty rosey pic for vaccine effectiveness for preventing serious illness.

That is the data set that I was thinking of. His analysis may be flawed, or it may not be detailed enough, but it pretty well puts the lie to the idea that 90% of these new hospitalizations and deaths are among the unvaccinated. I don’t think he could ever **** it up that bad.

And I know it’s a small part of the world and not representative of everything but it’s also probably a data set that lends itself to analysis, unlike most out there. One of the big crimes of this whole ordeal is that our data that has been accumulated is going to be nearly worthless for later analysis.

[aschen]

Originally Posted by javadog

, but it pretty well puts the lie to the idea that 90% of these new hospitalizations and deaths are among the unvaccinated. I don’t think he could ever **** it up that bad.
.

Believe what you want seriously.

But it doesn't do anything to discredit the larger studies in even the tinyest way statistically. One weeks data something like 40 deaths all from Nevada. He picked the week though the complete time history is published. It is Just another anecdote.