Porsche prices

ViRu1220 · 09-12-2022, 07:30 AM

Has anyone noticed how high the prices are on all the cars over at the PCA maket place?

Curious what everyone thinks the prices will do over the next couple of years. Will they go down if the economy slows drastically?

Arizona_928 · 09-12-2022, 07:54 AM

It will crash like the housing market circa 2009...

GH85Carrera · GH85Carrera's Garage

Everyone needs a place to live.

No one really needs 25 year old Porsche. Old cars are just toys for big boys. There is a limited supply of air cooled Porsches, and there will never be more, and every year the supply diminishes.

No doubt, the speculators are influencing the market, but like 356s the price is just going up. On Saturday I participated in a car show in Guthrie, OK. Nearly 300 cars and everything from lots of T-buckets, tri-5 Chevies to lots of old pickups. Lots of toys on display, and friendly people. Most all were toys. A few guys had nothing more than a daily driver Honda Civic, with wheels and a stereo worth more than the car. It was their car, and they customized it to fit their life style, and be what they want. I am 100% fine with that. It is a "car guy" and into cars.

Black968 · 09-12-2022, 09:15 AM

IMO prices will go down (2 years or so) as the interest rates rises. When the economy turns around, GOOD air cooled cars will always bring good money. They are getting expensive to fix and fewer people that can do it. These cars are desired all over the world, not just North America, long term trend is up.

GH85Carrera · GH85Carrera's Garage

Quote:

Originally Posted by Black968

IMO prices will go down (2 years or so) as the interest rates rises. When the economy turns around, GOOD air cooled cars will always bring good money. They are getting expensive to fix and fewer people that can do it. These cars are desired all over the world, not just North America, long term trend is up.

Only an idiot would try to get a loan on a 24+ year old car. They are usually bought with liquid funds for the most part. It would be a crazy bank to had out loans on classic cars, unless the borrower has spectacular credit. And people with great credit know not to get a loan to buy a classic car.

p911dad · p911dad's Garage

The market for the air-cooled 911's will continue to rise, along with certain other early cars, maybe a little slower rise in the near future, but the long term trend will be higher. The ones that have been heavily modified will not keep pace, most folks with the $$$ to be in this marker are looking for mostly or all original 993's, 964's and G model 911's. The early ones have gone crazy high and are likely just getting passed from collector to collector. The 928's and 944 and 968 seem to be up and rising also. Of course, only Tabs can really answer this

asphaltgambler · 09-12-2022, 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Black968

IMO prices will go down (2 years or so) as the interest rates rises. When the economy turns around, GOOD air cooled cars will always bring good money. They are getting expensive to fix and fewer people that can do it. These cars are desired all over the world, not just North America, long term trend is up.

^^Agree^^^

Attended a local (everything) car show held on a indie-brewery back lot; two weekends ago. Good turn-out, lot's of different people and vehicles. Only 1 911 there (ours), 1 very nice 356 with modern updates, 2 bugs.

pwd72s · 09-12-2022, 09:45 AM

Won't try to predict...markets do what they do. When well heeled baby boomers age out of a market, it's a craps shoot.

Black968 · 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GH85Carrera

Only an idiot would try to get a loan on a 24+ year old car. They are usually bought with liquid funds for the most part. It would be a crazy bank to had out loans on classic cars, unless the borrower has spectacular credit. And people with great credit know not to get a loan to buy a classic car.

Big picture, when interest rates rise people's net worth goes down, that's how it is. Even the rich are losing money at the moment. Markets down, Inflation up, costs up etc. Economics 101. Not even sure you could get a loan on an old car, but what do I know, I'm cash only.

The Synergizer · The Synergizer's Garage

Why would net worth go down just because interest rates rise?
If someone isn't leveraged, and they refinanced their residences a couple years ago at 2.75%, and they don't have substantial credit card debt, coupled with housing prices continuing to rise.. Not seeing net worth declining...

pwd72s · 09-12-2022, 10:43 AM

Factoring in inflation? Net worth is indeed declining...

ViRu1220 · 09-12-2022, 11:15 AM

I paid cash for the last two but in the past I have financed. I have financed when I wanted it "off the household books" so I didn't have to discuss with the wife why I bought another car when I already have "X" cars.

If the economy goes in the direction of high inflation/high interest rates and layoffs happen on a large scale, then people holding these toys would possibly liquidate. But with high inflation, a 70k car two years ago that is selling today at 70k is cheaper.

I am talking driver quality cars here.

The inability for people to finance new purchases would impact pricing in my opinion. The less people able to finance makes less buyers which make the prices come down. Come down by how much, I am not sure. I doubt I will ever buy a 3.2 for 14k every again or sell one like I did in 2009 for $9,800 (Which recently sold again on BAT for 90K).

It is a double edge sword. While I want my cars to have a higher value, it also hurts me on parts and buying more cars. I bought my last aircooled 911 in Feb of 2017. I spent 42k on it. I wasn't ever going to spend 100k for an aircooled 911. I am glad I did because if the prices don't come down, they will be over 100k and not ever coming down in the not too distant future (I am speaking of 3.2s, my favorites).

It just seems like prices on PCA are just sky high. Maybe I am wrong and that is indeed the true market. I watch BAT and it is like "good god I can't believe someone spent that much on that car".

I am a 356 in for a cosmetic restoration and it isn't cheap so the higher value will help stomach those costs. I was lucky, I found a rust free barn find '63 coupe that was complete. It was a time capsule. I was able to get it for what should considered theft.

I guess I am just going to hold on to the cars I have.

Black968 · 09-12-2022, 11:33 AM

^^Well said, people can ask what ever they want for a car, doesn't mean it will sell at or near asking. When people get squeezed and feel pain, that's when the market drops. The market for high quality cars owned by the wealthiest may not budge at all. It is a fairly predicable situation much like 2000 and 2008.

GH85Carrera · GH85Carrera's Garage

I don't consider myself rich, but I have zero personal debt, same for my wife. We paid off our house years ago. My credit cards is set up to automatically pay the full statement balance, so I have not paid one penny in interest in more years than I remember. When we bought the 2017 Macan, it was with a check, paid in full.

I do have a loan for my business airplane, but it is way over 1/2 way paid for, and it is going up in value, and it is earning the money to pay for itself and all the maintenance. It does not start unless it is for a paying job earning income.

I could get into speculating on cars, but I just don't want to. I have my two toys, and my wife loves her Macan, and it has depreciated very little.

I will leave my money in the investments that keep earning me money and I don't have to do a thing. I really can't see a bubble bursting in old air cooled Porsches. I do have to keep raising my insurance agreed value policy limits. That is a good thing for a car I paid off in the last millennium and has tripled in value since.

RobFrost · 09-12-2022, 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GH85Carrera

Only an idiot would try to get a loan on a 24+ year old car. They are usually bought with liquid funds for the most part. It would be a crazy bank to had out loans on classic cars, unless the borrower has spectacular credit. And people with great credit know not to get a loan to buy a classic car.

One doesn't need a loan on an old Porsche to be affected by interest rates. Porsche owners may have loans on other stuff such as a house or a new car, and as interest rates rise, they may liquidate the Porsche out of need or because they view it as a luxury they can't afford.

Also, the person who has no Porsche but would otherwise have bid up the market price may no longer do so because higher interest rates affect his or her liquidity.

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RobFrost · 09-12-2022, 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Black968

Big picture, when interest rates rise people's net worth goes down, that's how it is. Even the rich are losing money at the moment. Markets down, Inflation up, costs up etc. Economics 101. Not even sure you could get a loan on an old car, but what do I know, I'm cash only.

Inflation will drive prices up. Owning an asset during inflation protects you from the depreciation of cash.

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dw1 · 09-12-2022, 01:37 PM

To state the obvious:

IMHO, prices will go up a bit more over the next few years, then flatten out, then slowly decline.

There will be very significant price variation depending on condition and rarity, with the best of the best commanding very high prices for a very long time.

This "Captain Obvious" prediction is based on what happens with most collector cars and in fact most collectables.

Of course, longer-term "macroeconomic" trends are far easier to predict then short term "microeconomic" ones.

As long as there are people around who lusted after a particular 911 when they were younger, and folks of that age have significant disposable income, the market will remain fairly strong. When there are not so many of these folks in the market, prices will soften.

As much as people like to think of collector cars as an investment (as certainly the rarest and best are) much of the market (again, IMHO) is driven by "always wanted one" and/or "gotta have it" emotion.

sc_rufctr · 09-12-2022, 02:10 PM

The air-cooled 911 is unique in the motoring world... "If you want one nothing else will do!"

Things may slow down but ultimately they'll only go one way in value.

- Better than "Bricks and Mortar"?

wildthing · 09-12-2022, 06:00 PM

It'll go down by 10% in 10 years when everybody who wanted one are now too old, or we can't get gas and synthetic fuels aren't readily available...

sc_rufctr · 09-12-2022, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wildthing

It'll go down by 10% in 10 years when everybody who wanted one are now too old, or we can't get gas and synthetic fuels aren't readily available...

A young guy (early 20s) recently approached me about buying my car.

I said: "Everything's for sale but you wont like my asking price". He just looked at me and that was it.

There are things I worry about. The other things that don't matter I never worry about.
My car stays with me until I'm gone and then it becomes my eldest daughters problem!

Quote from my daughter: "It's impossible to be unhappy in this car".