Ron Paul Announces...

[kach22i]

Originally posted by techweenie
When was the last time the front runner a year before primary season actually became the candidate?

http://libertypost.org/cgi-bin/readart.cgi?ArtNum=179096

Still, with the nominating conventions more than 17 months away, what, if anything, do these early polls mean for would-be nominees? A look back at nearly 50 years of early primary polls suggests that Republican front-runners are often a good bet to capture the nomination, but the picture is more mixed for leading Democrats.

In seven open Republican contests since 1960, the early front-runners held on to win the party nod six times.1 By contrast, early Democratic poll leaders won four out of eight open contests between 1960 and 2004. In early 2003, Sen. John Kerry was tied with Sen. Joseph Lieberman, but fell behind Gen. Wesley Clark and Vermont Gov. Howard Dean at different times later in the year before eventually getting the final nod from Democrats.

[fastpat]

Originally posted by Rick Lee
Howard Dean was the media's darling too and he couldn't get much traction when it actually came to primary voters. Ditto with John McCain in 2000.

Howard Dean faced the concerted efforts of the Democrat Party core; the Teacher's Union, the traditional labor unions, and every left-wing loyal soldier who thought that they could not only eliminate a candidate that wasn't beholding to them, but win in November, 2004. Obviously a mistake on their part, Howard Dean would have mopped the floor with Bush.

Ron Paul's candidacy is gaining power in a way similar to the way Howard Dean did 5 years ago, and it will work. What the neo-cons will attempt is the same tactics the Democrat core took; shooting down the best candidate in favor of one bought and paid for by neo-con interests. If they do that, the Republicans will suffer the same fate the Democrats suffered in 2004, defeat.

There is no viable Republican candidate in the top few positions today that can win in 2008. Certainly not Giuliani or McCain, two of the most lame candidates since Bush I and Dole.

[Rick Lee]

Originally posted by fastpat
Obviously a mistake on their part, Howard Dean would have mopped the floor with Bush.

Surely you jest. How could he mop the floor with Bush when he couldn't do it with Kerry? Dean was a phenominal fund raiser. But the bottom line is primary voters and he couldn't get them. I vote in every primary and I don't take my marching orders from any group. Teachers unions might get all their members to the polls, but they can't make them all vote for the same person and even if they could, they are a tiny segment of the voting population. Dean was and is as adept at saying outrageous things as Bush is at mangling sentences. Dean would have pissed off way more people.