The "Hot Stove League" Thread

[CJFusco]

Originally Posted by mstupp

LaRoche only has 93 MLB AB's which is too small a sample size to draw any conclusions. Pedroia batted .191 last year in 89 AB's.

Exactly. Some players just take a year or so to get acclimated to the league - look at Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez, Grady Sizemore, Kevin Youkilis, Nick Swisher. Not all players are Jacoby Ellsbury or 1998's Nomar Garciaparra and are just outstanding right out of the gate. That being said, I wouldn't be shocked if Ellsbury's 08 was a letdown and then he ended up having an all-star 09. Of course, I won't be surprised if he ends up winning ROY next year...

I will be so relieved once A-Rod signs with NY. I hated the idea of "the Lipglossed One" in Boston red-white-and-blue. It's a weird situation when nobody wants the best player in baseball on their team, but the track record is showing that he's simply not a winner. He will never come up big in the style of Jeter, Ortiz, Damon, Guerrero, Holliday - or Reggie Jackson, for that matter, the obvious contrast - et al.

One of my close friends is a hard-core Yankee fan - he is flat-out obsessed with baseball. This time of year, football isn't even on his radar, he's all Hot Stove (although the Celtics are piquing his interest...). Well, he's one of these Yankee fans that is all soft and gooey for the stars of 10 years ago - Mariano, Jeter, Bernie, Posada. He's the kind of fan who thinks Posada's (4 years at $52 mil) and Mariano's (3 years at $45 mil) are GOOD deals because, hey, they are Posada and Mariano! Never mind that Mariano is showing serious signs of decline and Posada is a year away from turning into... well, Jason Varitek. Anyhow, this Yankee fan, who HATES A-Rod, came up with an interesting scenario: NY signs A-Rod and then they turn around and trade him to Florida for Cabrera and pitching. It would be funny, but Florida is a notorious salary-dumper, much like Oakland but a bit more extreme with their tendencies to blow up a roster and rebuild from scratch. No, the best player in baseball is remaining a Yankee. What a relief!

[BRPORSCHE]

Yeah it looks like A-Rod just turned into Stay-Rod

[Dan in Pasadena]

Agreed ARod is staying in NY. That fantasy about a sign-and-trade to Florida is just that. He'd be; if possible, an even bigger star in his native Florida....but it ain't happening.

Now, as a Dodgers fan I'm worried. My fear is that the drumbeat out here of "Gotta get a 3B, GOTTA get a 3B" is so loud, and the McCourts have been criticized (mostly deservedly) for always doing the wrong thing that they will be desperate to be seen as "doing something". They also feel they are in competition out here with Arte Moreno and the Angels. Anyway, I fear we will give away WAY too much to get Cabrera just to be able to showcase him. To me, Cabrera is hugely talented but he is only temporarily a third baseman. Anyone can see he's eating his way into being a first baseman and eventually a DH. The guy's only 24 and is truly "girthy." So why should the Dodgers get all breathless over him as a 3B?

I think we'd be better off either giving LaRoche 400-500 AB's to show what he can do OR.... pursue a different 3B than has been mentioned so far.

Which of your teams out there have a third baseman that is coming into his walk year or is not getting along with their manager (Yes, Rolen) or other (Beltre back to L.A.?)

[CJFusco]

Well, Lowell would fit in with the stable of ex-Red Sox that have been in LA over the past few years, but I hope it doesn't come to that. I think Lowell's bat allows Manny and Ortiz to see more pitches; the lineup is affected VERY negatively if Lowell is no longer hitting in the 5 spot...

[bivenator]

I'm a Astros fan and am relieved that the Biggio season is over and we can focus on being a baseball team instead of hosting a season long farewell party. We need pitching, (who doesn't) and looking to shore up second base. I wanted Tori Hunter for center but the stros went cheap and trade for hometown boy Michael Bourne. He could be a 350 OBP leadoff and play a decent center. Hopefully by going cheap they can find a started to team with Roy Oswalt.

Dan, I thought the Dodgers troubles stemmed more from infighting that anything. Do you think Torre will get everone to play nice?

[911michael]

Originally Posted by Dan in Pasadena

...Which of your teams out there have a third baseman that is coming into his walk year or is not getting along with their manager (Yes, Rolen) or other (Beltre back to L.A.?)

Would the A's trade Chavez to dump salary? Will he get healthy and be productive again? Will Rolen? In both cases, I would think so. Chavez hasn't even hit 30 years old yet. Does Ensberg have another good year in him? Hard to tell. Crede is supposedly on the trading block. Cabrera would be a good fit in a FL salary dump but his lack of defense is no secret as has already been mentioned.

Every one of those guys has 30 HR seasons in his past. Cabrera will have many more in the future. The others could get there again if they are healthy. Rolen is the oldest going on 33 so none of them are at the end of the line yet. Those are the main ones that come to my mind if the Dodgers would rather not give the job to a rookie.

edit: I wish the Phillies had someone to offer the Dodgers for LaRoche. I'd be happy to see him round out that infield.

[Dan in Pasadena]

mstupp, Good info and intriguing considerations. I guess I'm with you that the Dodgers should give LaRoche a chance to truly show what he can do. BUT, if he can't stay healthy enough to show it...particularly after a couple his prior injury problems... then relying on him sort of proves itself as a vain effort.

As to the "in-fighting" in the clubhouse. The beef was primarily between typically prickly (and a bit of a know-it-all) Jeff Kent and Luis Gonzalez on one hand (Nomar and Derek Lowe in there a bit too) and James Loney and Matt Kemp on the other hand, In Gonzo's case he wanted to play everyday and Kemp/Ethier were playing musical chairs with him because Grady Little thought that was the way to go. Gonzo probably WAS an everyday left fielder on some teams and MAY be this year if he goes elsewhere. But he wasn't on the Dodgers. Ethier and Kemp were both hitting above .300 and were hitting for power on a 25-30 HR pace if they'd had a full season of AB's to prove it. Gonzo was frustrated and it overflowed.

Kent on the other hand made the comment that the young guys didn't "get it." Well, what exactly does that mean if you're executing like they were? They played music he didn't like in the clubhouse and acted "loose" around the veterans unlike what he THOUGHT they should act...deferential? They made some mistakes, particularly Kemp in base running, but he's 23 or 24. Did Jeff Kent "get it" when he was that age? If they don't "get" how special it is to have a shot at the post season because they have a career ahead of them and he has one largely behind him, how is that their "fault"? I think he is frightened that he will retire without a ring.

Truth is the Dodgers were in first place as late as July 26th. Their starting pitching was riddled with injuries and ultimately fell apart but their level of field play didn't fall off UNTIL Kent mouthed off in the press and immature Loney responded to a question about it "bothering him if team leaders voiced criticism?..." and Loney responded, "Who said they're leaders?" Then the beef was on. As it stands, Gonzo is gone and Kent may be. Torre and via Larry Bowa will get it across strongly that that schit doesn't go on a "team". They'll "get" that Torre and his $14M contract ain't going anywhere but THEY are if they don't pull as a team.

[CJFusco]

[QUOTE=mstupp;3590632]Would the A's trade Chavez to dump salary? [QUOTE]

It's definitely in Billy Beane's idiom to do so. The A's design philosophy right now is "draft well, develop well, then trade prospective free agents for draft picks before they command a huge pay check, draft well, etc." it's a brilliant self-perpetuating cycle that keeps the A's competitive every year. They've done it with SO MANY great players. I can't wait to see the feeding frenzy that Nick Swisher will generate...

I would posit the theory that the reason they never make it past the first round of the playoffs, however, is because they are always lacking in experienced veterans to lead the way.

[Dan in Pasadena]

Originally Posted by CJFusco

....I would posit the theory that the reason they never make it past the first round of the playoffs, however, is because they are always lacking in experienced veterans to lead the way.

...and you would be right in my humble baseball opinion. Its the BALANCE of youth/talent with experience/talent which makes championship teams in my opinion.

[911michael]

Compare the A's approach of just being competitive within a budget and the Marlins approach to salary control. I don't know when Beane took over the A's but the Marlins have won the WS twice since the last time the A's showed up in the WS - before the fish even existed.

[CJFusco]

The Marlins have a similar strategy with a devious twist: they also draft well and trade big salaries (Beckett/Lowell) in order to get promising youngsters (Hanley/Anibal) and, like the Red Sox, Indians, Angels, et al., are willing to fill the holes with experienced veterans (IRod). Instead of having the constant turnover of the A's, however, the Marlins simply blow it all up every couple years, selling the farm after every championship and starting anew. Sounds like a stupid idea, but it's worked a couple times already for them.

[Tobra]

Thought this was about something else.


I have not followed professional baseball at all since they cancelled the World Series due to selfishness and childishness. All I get on it since then is the stuff about indictments and cheating you get pretty steadily. I am constantly amazed how many people feel the same way.

[Dan in Pasadena]

I agree these approaches CAN work but there are at least two giant considerations to take into account. First is the, "...in order to get promising youngsters.." comment you make. You've got to have someone on staff who can CONSISTENTLY draft the young guys that will turn into franchise type players so that you can perpetuate the "...trade the big salaries..." part of your equation. That is NOT easy to do and as a look at many storied franchises will show.

The Red Sox prior to 2004 tried to do it for how many decades? The Cubs?

Also - and this is no small point - I think you alienate the fan base over and over. Over a period of time you are going to permanently lose a percentage of that base. Unlike Red Sox fans and Dodgers fans for example. You guys didn't win the championship for what? 80 years and you still had record attendance. The Dodgers haven't been to the Series in 30 years come '08 and in the playoffs only a handful of times over that same period, getting eliminated in the first round each time and still we have record attendance. I think we made 4 million this year. I don't think you can pull that off if you blow up the roster every few years and retool from the ground up. At least in L.A. there are too many other entertainment options for that to work. Thoughts?

[Dan in Pasadena]

Originally Posted by Tobra

Thought this was about something else.


I have not followed professional baseball at all since they cancelled the World Series due to selfishness and childishness. All I get on it since then is the stuff about indictments and cheating you get pretty steadily. I am constantly amazed how many people feel the same way.

Tobra, I was going to respond something like, "If that's all you see/hear you aren't a baseball fan. There have been LOTS of great games, series, and individual accomplishments since that strike."

Then I realized in some ways I feel the same about pro football. I was a dyed-in-the-wool Rams fan for years. I lived and died with them in the way back (to you probably) years of Jim Everett, Eric Dickerson (Gawd, I loved to watch him) Jackie Slater, the Youngbloods, Flipper Anderson, Henry Ellard, etc. Then they moved to St. Louis. I can't tell you how it killed me for them to go to and win the Super Bowl AFTER they'd left their fan base here.

Now I don't watch football at all. All I hear is the idiot scandals. The Pacman Jones, the Michael Vick scandals. I am not forgetting the earlier Ray Lewis ones and more its just that I forget them because I'm not a football fan anymore. I've gotten so far away from it, I now feel it is too violent. I would have laughted at ME in the past for holding that opinion. But it seems like a guy is getting paralyzed every year and at least one guy pro or college is DYING from something every year too.

Baseball WILL rise from this Bonds scandal. But no question it is damaged in the eyes of many. I am now; very reluctantly, in favor of brackets or italics around the entire era of steroids. Bonds' record is only one number that is a false reflection of the achievements during this era.

[CJFusco]

Absolutely. Building a team begins with a brilliant GM. The statistical revolution in baseball, which arguably began its slow genesis with the discovery of Bill James, has completely changed everything. Billy Beane was the first to question the conventional "old scout" way of evaluating players' worth - namely that star players are born with an innate "body type", and that scouts would "just get a feeling about a guy" - and look at numbers like OBP and BB/K ratio instead. The logic of this approach is that you can develop a player's power, but if he doesn't have patience at the plate, he never will.

After Beane's approach won some admirers, his disciples started to get jobs in the bigs: JP Riccardi at Toronto, Larry Lucchino at Baltimore (and now Boston), Paul DePodesta at LA (and now the Padres), and most recently Theo "boy wonder" Epstein at Boston.

Look at the track records. When DePodesta was at LA, the Dodgers made a run for it, which they haven't repeated since DePodesta left for San Diego after 05 (and they had a pretty darn good team this year). IMHO, the Dodgers would have been well-advised to hold onto DePodesta. Riccardi has put together a great team that keeps getting unlucky with injuries, and Boston. Well, we all know about Boston.

Now, in 2007, every team has hired statisticians and have cut down on their stable of grizzled old scouts. Even the Yankees are getting smarter. A lot of baseball purists scoff at the stat guys, but hey, it works.

Granted, there are flaws. Bill James (who now ALSO works for the Red Sox) doesn't believe in "clutch hitters" - if a good hitter is a good hitter, he will eventually hit well in big situations. This completely disregards human nature. One only has to contrast A-Rod with Ortiz or Jeter to see the difference.

[Dan in Pasadena]

Originally Posted by CJFusco

...Look at the track records. When DePodesta was at LA, the Dodgers made a run for it, which they haven't repeated since DePodesta left for San Diego after 05 (and they had a pretty darn good team this year). IMHO, the Dodgers would have been well-advised to hold onto DePodesta.

Uh....no. I've got to disagree with you. I know you weren't here to see/read what was happening but holding onto Depodesta would have been somewhat of an ongoing disaster. This is the guy that thought Hee Sop Choi should be playing first base for us if you remember? This is the guy that is remembered for trading away Paul Lo Duca - who, (if you were here you would know) was the heart and soul of that team. When he left he CRIED on camera. Sure Depo got us Brad Penny...who immediately had arm problems and was out; season flushed. Sure Penny has turned out great and we have moved on now with Russell Martin - All Star, Gold Glove and Silver Slugger. BUT, Depodesta left us relying on Koyie Hill. anyone remember him? Can't miss prospect....uh huh. I can't remember right now who the setup man was that was Mr. Automatic do get us through the 8th to hand the ball to Gagne in the 9th, but Depodesta traded him away in the Lo Duca trade and it put a strain on the whole 'pen and ultimately led to Gagne's arm problems when Jim Tracy, arguably was forced to overuse him by pitching him in the 8th and even a couple of times in the 7th.

Look, they only won one more game in the playoffs in the Depodesta era than since and frankly, it was a bit of luck. Jose Mesa threw that game and pulled it out of his rear. I was AT the game when Stever Findlay pulled a slam out of nowhere to win us the West. Depodesta was NOT GM material...at least not then. I agree statistical analysis was long overdue but I think there is no substitute for a sage scout and a wise GM who relies on BOTH.

The GM all Dodgers fans should be giving a bow to is Dan Evans. HE (along with very significantly) Logan White are the architects of the current farm resurgence. Martin, Kemp, Loney,