Straight To He11 Boy

[Aurel]

Originally Posted by tabs

The transition to alternative fuels needs a relativily intact and robust economy to FUND THAT TRANSITION. If the economy is bust there will be no money to effect that transition.

I feel like I have been yelling about that for many years, but I did not really. It seems so obvious to me, it goes without saying. Going to war with Iraq, in hindsight for most, but in foresight six years ago for me, was the dumbest possible thing to do. Money invested there should have been invested in reducing our oil dependency. Then, money would have been made by exporting the technologies developed. Did you guys know that all solar cell factories in the world are totally booked with orders for several years?
Oh well, If I lose my job, I sure won`t be able to help with that anymore.

Aurel

[speeder]

Tabs, you're really stomping on my buzz, dude.

[red-beard]

What you really don't know, unless you were at the Ultimate Vegas Meet, is that Tabby is really Ed McMahon

[cgarr]

anxiety, thats all it is, so what has really changed since yesterday or last week or last month?, its just all on paper, quit looking at the paper and don't worry about it! Just keep digging that bunker and stock it with tomato soup, you will be just fine.

[slakjaw]

Yeah. is it really THAT bad Tabdul?

[Hawktel]

Originally Posted by tabs

Warren Buffet offered $1,000,000.00 to any Financial manager that could beat the S&P in this market. What does that mean..NO BODY IS MAKING ANY MONEY, everyone is losing money

Okay you fail on this one.

Buffet set up a long bet with a pair of hedge funders that they can't beat the S+P for a 10 year period. The bet is for 1 million dollars. He's not betting anyone, just those two. And he only thinks he has a 60% chance of winning.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Hawktel

Okay you fail on this one.

Buffet set up a long bet with a pair of hedge funders that they can't beat the S+P for a 10 year period. The bet is for 1 million dollars. He's not betting anyone, just those two. And he only thinks he has a 60% chance of winning.

OK, I ADMIT I FAIL ON THIS ONE. However there is a Mutal Fund Manager that I was told about that was profitable EVERY QUARTER for 15 years. The first quarter of 2008 was the first quarter he was not profitable in. He even exceeded the duration of profitability of Peter Lynch of Fidelity fame. That is the level of difficulty of making money in this market...so I stand on that point.

The market right now is not a rational market by any measure. The parameters are all out of whack so no one knows what to expect. SPOOKED IS THE WORD

[RPKESQ]

First, I don’t believe in the claims that the US is dying. A rough patch, yes. But it is not the end. Many of you bemoan the fact that you might need to drive smaller cars or live in smaller houses. Wow, I can see your lives are just ruined; no reason to go on living anymore. No one country exists in a vacuum anymore, so quit thinking like the US should.
My sky is not falling. I am diversified across continents and cultures. I have income in Dollars, Euros, Pounds and Yen. All of my hard assets are gaining in value. I am on track for my retirement. I have set up long term multiple income streams. My investments in the market cover multiple bases, so when one is down, several are up.

I have tried to share this with others, but few listen.
Houses are poor investments or in reality not an investment at all, just a enforced savings plan for the vast majority. Income property is the quickest way to riches for the average person as long as you buy in the low part of the cycle. Do not for any reason, purchase in the up cycle for property. That's as bad as trying to "time" the market.

Buy the best. Best stocks (which are seldom the highest performers, esp. since the late 90s), best properties, best quality art or collectables. Collect gold snuff boxes not paper match books. If something is out of you price range, don't buy the second tier stuff. Find another of the same (highest) quality, maybe in a different country or city. Do not buy anything on credit (except for property, because of tax advantages).

Keep you overhead as low as possible. Find ways to save every dollar you can for investment. I am not saying live like a monk, but be very careful about overhead costs. You should be able to live with one fourth of your income, investing the rest in diversified quality. That is the ratio to strive for. See how close you can get to that.

Then an amazing thing happens. You are successful and your life is quite pleasant. It is not rocket science, but if you want to succeed where so many fail you must think outside the box.

[Nathans_Dad]

Sell the spoons man! That stuff is wierd anyways.

[Zeke]

1/4 your income!!!!!!! Tell that to the proletariat. My God, man, what elitist planet to you come from? Most here in SoCal (8-9 million alone in LA) are barely making it if they have auto and health ins payments and a lot can't afford that, much less gas and groceries.

Sure, we have Hollywood and Beverly Hills, but we also have Watts which is just about to erupt. You can take that to the bank.

[slakjaw]

Originally Posted by RPKESQ

First, I don’t believe in the claims that the US is dying. A rough patch, yes. But it is not the end. Many of you bemoan the fact that you might need to drive smaller cars or live in smaller houses. Wow, I can see your lives are just ruined; no reason to go on living anymore. No one country exists in a vacuum anymore, so quit thinking like the US should.
My sky is not falling. I am diversified across continents and cultures. I have income in Dollars, Euros, Pounds and Yen. All of my hard assets are gaining in value. I am on track for my retirement. I have set up long term multiple income streams. My investments in the market cover multiple bases, so when one is down, several are up.

I have tried to share this with others, but few listen.
Houses are poor investments or in reality not an investment at all, just a enforced savings plan for the vast majority. Income property is the quickest way to riches for the average person as long as you buy in the low part of the cycle. Do not for any reason, purchase in the up cycle for property. That's as bad as trying to "time" the market.

Buy the best. Best stocks (which are seldom the highest performers, esp. since the late 90s), best properties, best quality art or collectables. Collect gold snuff boxes not paper match books. If something is out of you price range, don't buy the second tier stuff. Find another of the same (highest) quality, maybe in a different country or city. Do not buy anything on credit (except for property, because of tax advantages).

Keep you overhead as low as possible. Find ways to save every dollar you can for investment. I am not saying live like a monk, but be very careful about overhead costs. You should be able to live with one fourth of your income, investing the rest in diversified quality. That is the ratio to strive for. See how close you can get to that.

Then an amazing thing happens. You are successful and your life is quite pleasant. It is not rocket science, but if you want to succeed where so many fail you must think outside the box.

Sweet. got any more tips?

[tabs]

Originally Posted by slakjaw

Yeah. is it really THAT bad Tabdul?

This maybe the calm before the storm. This MAYBE the perfect storm that changes everything. The possibility is there like we havn't known since the Great Depression.

What has changed from a few months ago...not much...

Generally what has been happening is that to keep cash flowing or liquidity in the face of the SUB_PRIME Bond debacle the FED had to lower interest rates or risk a meltdown in the Bond Market (Bear Sterns deal averted that crisis and returned some stability to the market). That has meant higher oil prices as the dollar has fallen in value against those lower interest rates. Higher oil prices means even more slowing of the economy. CATCH 22.

FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION the old tools used to right the system are having decreasing effectivness.

Now U throw in world demand for oil, speculation of oil in the financaial markets (possible bubble as it is the flavor of the day) and instability (war with Iran) in the ME as an unkknown factor. Israel is ready to go...and will do so in the face of an Obama presidency.

Shakey enough for ya....now throw in a Left Wing Liberal that has NO ECONOMIC EXPERIENCE outside of South CHicago economics and what do you think the financial, corporate and monetary BOYZ are thinking?

[tabs]

EXXON MOBIL has announced the sale of all 2200 of its retail gas stations in the USA...that is what the corporate boyz are thinking.

[Aurel]

Originally Posted by RPKESQ

You should be able to live with one fourth of your income, investing the rest in diversified quality. That is the ratio to strive for. See how close you can get to that.

Does that include mortgage payments??? Crap, I am far from that with mortgage...

Aurel

[tabs]

Originally Posted by RPKESQ

First, I don’t believe in the claims that the US is dying. A rough patch, yes. But it is not the end. Many of you bemoan the fact that you might need to drive smaller cars or live in smaller houses. Wow, I can see your lives are just ruined; no reason to go on living anymore. No one country exists in a vacuum anymore, so quit thinking like the US should.
My sky is not falling. I am diversified across continents and cultures. I have income in Dollars, Euros, Pounds and Yen. All of my hard assets are gaining in value. I am on track for my retirement. I have set up long term multiple income streams. My investments in the market cover multiple bases, so when one is down, several are up.

I have tried to share this with others, but few listen.
Houses are poor investments or in reality not an investment at all, just a enforced savings plan for the vast majority. Income property is the quickest way to riches for the average person as long as you buy in the low part of the cycle. Do not for any reason, purchase in the up cycle for property. That's as bad as trying to "time" the market.

Buy the best. Best stocks (which are seldom the highest performers, esp. since the late 90s), best properties, best quality art or collectables. Collect gold snuff boxes not paper match books. If something is out of you price range, don't buy the second tier stuff. Find another of the same (highest) quality, maybe in a different country or city. Do not buy anything on credit (except for property, because of tax advantages).

Keep you overhead as low as possible. Find ways to save every dollar you can for investment. I am not saying live like a monk, but be very careful about overhead costs. You should be able to live with one fourth of your income, investing the rest in diversified quality. That is the ratio to strive for. See how close you can get to that.

Then an amazing thing happens. You are successful and your life is quite pleasant. It is not rocket science, but if you want to succeed where so many fail you must think outside the box.

It is the many that haven't listened that will drag the few down. U generally offer good advice for the past 63 years of history. However as the 500 pound Gorilla that the USA represents in the world economy so follows the rest of the world.

What caused the Great Depression was a crisis of liquidity. In 1929 Stocks could find no buyers and went into price free fall as people were called on their Margins they had to liquidate at any price. The BOND market in 2008 faced the same threat with the Sub-prime Bonds, they were becoming unsaleable at any price. If the Bear Sterns Deal did not take place the Bond market would have seized up, and an ensuing crash would have taken place...(collateral damage from a Bearn Sterns BK).

[Zeke]

Well tabs, let's not let the election have that much to do with it other than the people's perception. In actuality, BO won't be able to do anything that is worse than what's been done in the last 7.5 years. Greenspan held on to it as long as he could. The downturn swing is inevitable and has cycled regularly, at least during my lifetime since WWII.

Maybe he held it off too long this time. Now it's Bernake's turn. I don't know a single thing about him. But, we're headed for some tough times, that I can agree with tabby on.

[jyl]

I am not as pessimistic as you, tabs. I am mostly in cash for the moment. But if the market holds the March lows, I will reduce cash.

Will rejoin this thread later to talk more. Right now, I have to make dinner.

BTW,

dinner tonight = 1/2 lb sirloin, cut into chunks, chilled, put through the hand grinder, then eaten raw w/ raw egg, chopped scallions, minced garlic, coarse pepper, coarse salt. Yum!

[tabs]

Bama & Jimmy Carter are being mentioned in the same breath.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by jyl

But if the market holds the March lows

!

We are in for a revisit, and there in lies the 64 $ question everyone wants to know the answer to, will those lows hold? If not than it is anybodys guess where she goes from there.

[tabs]

I understand the financial and the macro economics but I am no expert that watches the blue screen every day...I do have a very astute political and psychological mind, that is where I am gifted. I can see around corners and in the dark. Sometimes I just see the the possible alignment of the stars so to speak and I get the gut feeling now that we is treading in uncharted territory. This is not just the same old same old as we have been used to for the past 60 plus years. MAYBE it is just a possibilty and will not come to pass, maybe this is just a doom and gloom worst case scenerio?

To do an abstraction for ya..chaos theory. Nothing is really ever in control however there is predictability that certain parameters will apply. We are now in a time where the predictabilty of those parameters is not holding true. I have said for a long time now that holding the American dollar has risk that most Americans don't realize. It floats on the world market in price and because it has reserve currency status has the appearance of being incontrovertibly the rock of Gibraltar. Americans are now waking up to the fact that the value of the dollar is illusory. That the American dollar is no different than the currency of Mexico, Brazil or Argentina, except for reserve currency status. Reality is now catching up to Americans in spite of what they are being told on TV.

QUESTION, How many American lives is the status of being the reserve currency worth to maintain? In other words do ya still want your house in the suburbs, big screen TV and now a hybrid car to go back and forth to work in..he11 do ya want a job? The only thing between us and the abyss is that if we go everybody goes, because the USA is still the 500 pound economic Gorillia in the room. and everybody is holding dollars. .. So now you have to figure who is to benfit if the Gorillia goes boom? Who will be there to pick up the pieces? Or thinks they will?