Say Bye Bye

[jyl]

What are they going for in $/sq ft, compared to 1yr ago and 2 yrs ago?

Selling for over asking, by itself, doesn't mean much.

I do agree some parts of the Bay Area seem to be holding up. It was also so back in the early 1990s. The better/best parts of San Francisco went down only 15% or so.

Originally Posted by jtkkz

In my neighborhood, couple houses sold for way over asking price. So still good in my area.

So far so good, cause some pockets of areas in the SF bay area are still holding up.

[Joeaksa]

Originally Posted by jyl

OK, a WAG (Wild-Ass Guess), I can see.

What I didn't see, was how you could track the value as precisely as your original post seemed to imply.

No, a SWAG, scientific wild ass guess. I am not just guessing but keeping an eye on all the data I can get as well as the houses being sold in the area AND the local builders who are now building new houses in my area. Builders usually do not build new houses (especially after the past couple of years) unless they are seeing some positive movement in that area.

Between the comps of the houses sold around me, the info from my realtor friends and Zillow, you can get close, and its not a guess. As well one of my friends flies one of the largest builders in this area, so we hear more than the average bear might on this subject.

[daepp]

I know nothing of WaMu, but I've understand Wells Fargo got out of the mortgage game 12-18 months before everyone else.

Also - please don't forget about deposit insurance. Unless you have more than $100,000 in an account, and with proper legal strucutring, a wife and two children, you can extend that coverage to $1,400,000. I was the EVP/CFO of a small bank - this came up all the time - you have no worries under the scenarios I described. What I cannot understand is why people were lining up outside Indymac to withdraw their $2,500 account - as interviewed on the evening news.

In the early 90's I had some of the bank's excess liquidity invested in $99,000 cd's across the nation - and I often went for the high rate cds offered by the troubled banks. Over a 2-3 year period maybe 15-20 of these institutions were taken over by the FDIC/FSLIC. In no case did they ever fail to have a check ready for me Monday morning after a Friday afternoon takeover.

The FDIC itself is a very well run organization - and I say that as one who was auditied and regulated by them for nearly 20 years. In the mid 90's they even went so far as to RAISE their minimum graduating GPA requirements for employment. Not that this is everything - and they've been saddled by Congress with a lot of BS to deal with, but in all they are a pretty solid organization.

IMHO depositors need to be reminded that the full faith and credit of the US Treasury stands behind their bank deposits. In fact, they even guaranteed 50% of the deposits in excess of $100K at Indymac.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

Originally Posted by daepp

What I cannot understand is why people were lining up outside Indymac to withdraw their $2,500 account - as interviewed on the evening news. . .

Probably because people have even less faith in the government than they do in their banks. A true sign of the times - and something that speaks volumes.

[daepp]

IMO, they should rely on deposit insurance - it has played a large role in preventing another depression in the last 70 years.

[mattdavis11]

I couldn't read it all.

Tabs, is Atlas going to tank?

I know of the World-Whatch-over-ya merge, this thread needs stock graphs, and women in bikinis.

[therotman]

Originally Posted by Joeaksa

No, a SWAG, scientific wild ass guess. I am not just guessing but keeping an eye on all the data I can get as well as the houses being sold in the area AND the local builders who are now building new houses in my area. Builders usually do not build new houses (especially after the past couple of years) unless they are seeing some positive movement in that area.

Between the comps of the houses sold around me, the info from my realtor friends and Zillow, you can get close, and its not a guess. As well one of my friends flies one of the largest builders in this area, so we hear more than the average bear might on this subject.

Realtors spend half their time going to conferences and meetings that tell them things are better than they really are to help boost their confidence.


May as well ask a new car salesman if their brand of car is the best one to buy.

[jtkkz]

Originally Posted by jyl

What are they going for in $/sq ft, compared to 1yr ago and 2 yrs ago?

Selling for over asking, by itself, doesn't mean much.

I do agree some parts of the Bay Area seem to be holding up. It was also so back in the early 1990s. The better/best parts of San Francisco went down only 15% or so.

the one that went for $80K over asking was 1700 sq. ft. with lot size of around 6000+ house was fully remodeled inside. Nice home
the other one went for 100K over asking, I belive it was a slighlty bigger home

My mom is a realtor....

[turbo6bar]

Denile is not just a river in Egypt.

daepp, why should a person keep funds at a risky bank with piddly interest rates? We aren't talking about high yield bonds with double digit returns. Cash in hand is worth more than a promise from the government.

[jyl]

Hmm, okay, we'll revisit this in a year. I am doubtful, given months inventory and other metrics in PHX. But maybe North PHX is going to be unusually resilient.

Originally Posted by Joeaksa

No, a SWAG, scientific wild ass guess. I am not just guessing but keeping an eye on all the data I can get as well as the houses being sold in the area AND the local builders who are now building new houses in my area. Builders usually do not build new houses (especially after the past couple of years) unless they are seeing some positive movement in that area.

Between the comps of the houses sold around me, the info from my realtor friends and Zillow, you can get close, and its not a guess. As well one of my friends flies one of the largest builders in this area, so we hear more than the average bear might on this subject.

[Jim Bremner]

so, is it time to take the 40% hit on pulling out of the 401(K) ?


is it time to pull out of the stock market?

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Jim Bremner

so, is it time to take the 40% hit on pulling out of the 401(K) ?


is it time to pull out of the stock market?

The day U pull out will be the bottom of the market and it will rise from there.

[daepp]

Originally Posted by turbo6bar

daepp, why should a person keep funds at a risky bank with piddly interest rates? We aren't talking about high yield bonds with double digit returns. Cash in hand is worth more than a promise from the government.

FDIC insurance is worth the exactly the same as the promise on the front of the Federal Reserve Notes (cash) you want to pull out of the banks. No difference whatsoever - if one fails, they're both worthless.

Anyone who advocates pulling insured deposits out of banks is an alarmist and contributes to the problem we are facing today - and even though it's cliche, it's akin to shouting fire in a crowded theater!

[Porsche-O-Phile]

I disagree. It's your damn money. If you don't feel comfortable with it in the bank, take it out. It's a vote of "no confidence" in the bank. Nothing more.

[therotman]

Originally Posted by daepp

FDIC insurance is worth the exactly the same as the promise on the front of the Federal Reserve Notes (cash) you want to pull out of the banks. No difference whatsoever - if one fails, they're both worthless.

Anyone who advocates pulling insured deposits out of banks is an alarmist and contributes to the problem we are facing today - and even though it's cliche, it's akin to shouting fire in a crowded theater!

so we should buy yuans?

[Dottore]

Originally Posted by Joeaksa

He is not thinking ahead (or not thinking at all) but its not my problem...

...well it is when he's in the left seat...

[the]

Originally Posted by Porsche-O-Phile

I disagree. It's your damn money. If you don't feel comfortable with it in the bank, take it out. It's a vote of "no confidence" in the bank. Nothing more.

It is a little more, because the funds are guaranteed. So it's also at least somewhat a vote of no confidence in the guarantor.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

True on that. . .

FDIC has a pretty solid track record. I think perhaps people were just afraid of perhaps having their funds tied up for a while and/or having to go through all kinds of red tape to get them back - even if they WERE insured. That'd be my biggest concern anyway, although I suspect FDIC is pretty good about handling things with a minimum of inconvenience to customers (I know, uncharacteristic for government, but in this case they pretty much NEED to in order for the program to work).

I think we'd be able to see it coming if things ever got so bad that FDIC couldn't cover bank patrons. If things ever got that bad, I think it probably wouldn't matter anyway 'cause we'd likely be in a situation where ammunition was the new currency anyway. Things would be apocalyptic at that point - lootings, riots, etc.

If it ever got that bad, I think I'd be hunkered down with a bunch of rations and water and my guns. Not going down to stand in an angry mob to demand money that the bank (and the FDIC) didn't have. It'd have to be REALLY bad.

But if people want to pull their $$$ out - if it really makes 'em feel better, so be it I guess.

[daepp]

Originally Posted by Porsche-O-Phile

I disagree. It's your damn money. If you don't feel comfortable with it in the bank, take it out. It's a vote of "no confidence" in the bank. Nothing more.

Not very helpful to the problem. I guess it's just symptomatic of the narcissism of many today.

[The Gaijin]

Originally Posted by daepp

Not very helpful to the problem. I guess it's just symptomatic of the narcissism of many today.

Time for Bill the WaMu banker to fall on his sword.

Are those stodgy old white guys still around?? I bet they know how to run a bank.