On the Road to Damascus

tabs52 · 04-05-2002, 03:45 PM

Hello guys, welcome to Armageddon time. I got one friend who tells me to sell both of my collector cars. My Mustang SCJ and my beloved P 911S. Another friend tells me we are on the verge of another depression the likes we havn't seen since 1929. OR WORSE.... the situation hasn't gotten any better just look at the news coming from the Middle East. Whats scary is this person is a financial advisor to the RNC (they trade information). Whether or not we go over the edge well they don't know. Anyone wana place a wager......What are the odds you'll give me?

pearldrum · 04-05-2002, 08:23 PM

bad times.... hopefully it's just people's fears and won't actually happen...

RoninLB · 04-06-2002, 07:09 PM

economics...there are many items in place for a slight depression. I am not certain which way the ball will roll. This downturn has only been related to theory from this Austrian brain called Heite/or something like that...Anyway, what would relax me is to see a good money supply measured by gold being at/over $350, an unemployment # under 3% for awhile/a long while, and the S&P getting to and staying above 1200 for a few weeks. I do think what's important now is that foreign markets have finally joined in.. So far, IMHO, it's been a suckers rally...I do hope that we are not involved in the proverbal/but true "double dip"... Ron

tabs52 · 04-06-2002, 09:20 PM

A slight depression is like being slightly pregnant. Unemployment at 3% is not sustainable if not practically impossible. Gold at $350 hmmm.....It's been under $300 for a long while, the cost of mining the stuff is $250 an ounce. I know it is over $300 now, just don't really keep a close eye on it. The market is in oversold condition and the shorts sellers are out there in a big way. So....... But it's the World Situation that keeps people on edge. The other thing that no one has mentioned yet is the Political climate in the USA, there is an election coming in November. Remember the last one, the market never really recovered from that one. We are a house divided as to the future course. Maybe 911 cleared the table off and the American people have decided the direction they want to go in. There is a sea change in America.

RoninLB · 04-07-2002, 06:53 AM

This is OT...but our wallet affects our 911 upgrades, and we do plan our projects with our $$$$...."slightly pregnant"- I don't think that is a good/educated reply. Our markets are a package deal. Not everyone is always completly satisfied. If you believe in a market/competitive structure that will be clear. If you feel that everyone should be satisfied at the same time I can understand your position and frustration. The problem with that tilt is that every socialist economy has "fallen behind". The new "EURO" currency is a good example of political manipulation trying to gain greater control thru appearing to be competitive. This is a current world history event in the making. The "EURO" affect can go either way. I like to watch military spending as an accurate indication on the true strength of a country, in an economic perspective not a weapons perspective....
"the world situation keeps people on edge"--that is very true for some. Your tension is understandable. Bush started as the US leader, to the dismay of many. Your tensions reflect that. Bush has now become a world leader which is making the political "left" dishartened. Watching "Hillary" in action is a good reflection of your position and could give you insight on which direction your future is going, good luck....
3% unemployment--that number is what is needed to absorb all new entrants in the labor pool. Your position on that reflects your tension on not having a gov't control the job market, IMO. That is OK. A balanced political conservative/liberal country is what the world needs. Again your wishing that the gov't control the markets and make jobs for everyone has been weakened by a Republican controlled executive branch. I think you will feel better when you see that the Democrates may get control of the "House" in this comming election.
I think the markets like it and become more interesting when no one party is in full control. This may happen to a greater extent this comming election...This topic belongs OT, IMHO .........Ron

tabs52 · 04-07-2002, 12:01 PM

So much to respond to. My "pregnant" comment basically meant If your in a depression your in a depression simple, it effects everyone to a greater or lesser degree naturally. When was the last time the USA had 3% unemployment other than a momentary blip on the statistical score sheet. Interesting comment about watching the relative economic strength of a country by it's military spending. The USSR spent themselves into the ground with their military spending. Their spending vs their relative economic strength was way out of whack. The Euro is Germany's way of taking over the place, this is the new improved version. Yes there was Political dismay when Bush took over however I want to point out that if Gore had taken over there would have been equal dismay on the other side. The economic downturn started before the Presidential elections ie April of 2000. Greenspan started to raise interest rates for fear of an inflation that was basically non existant. I believe he was trying to be premptive. Basically through his blundering a recession was caused. I believe that the the disputed election or maybe even the closeness of it has put Wall Street and that is a more succint definition of "people" on edge, because now the stability of the Political process in the USA was put into doubt. ie They were talking Constitutional Crisis remember. Watching Hilliary, She is going to run for president in 2008. I see her as being totaly arrogant and completely ruthless in the quest of her ambitions. I see the New Democrats as being practioneers of situational ethics. They quite frankly leave a very bad taste in my mouth. I don't know who they represent ie the "we" who the he!! is the "we" ie the 'collective" at one time Liberal meant protecting the right of the indivdual form the greater collective. Miranda give em his rights Dano, that was protecting the little guy from the power of the state, no matter if he was innocent or guility. Civil Rights again giving a minority equal footing. Now it's smoking the indivdual can't smoke because it hurts the group. Not a paticular person in the group but the collective undefinable "we." Yes if we are pushed further down the road to Socialism ie Collectivism America will stagnate and our way of life will change. Which brings me back to my orginal premise that things have been prosperous for so long in America that no one can conceive that we can lose it.

Planter91C2 · 04-08-2002, 08:20 AM

here is proof that the world is f-upped.

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/dynamic/news/top_story.html?in_review_id=545846&in_review_text_id=511810

tabs52 · 04-08-2002, 10:48 AM

After reading the above story.....I have come to the conclusion that as a result of civilization "Natural Selction" doesn't work anymore. If it did then those two women would have been eaten by the Lions and Tigers long ago. Much the pity that hasn't happenend.