In this day and age................as insane as it sounds considering the lack of any debris, no location of the EPIRB, no last minute radio contact how many far fectched theories are going to stick? Even if it were some catastophic disintegration you would still find floating debris and they are saying they have come across many items, but nothing from the plane! No surprise given that are oceans are littered. Whats left?

If nothing shows up by the end of this week in come the UFO - "Bermuda Triangle" conspiracy crowd. Steven Spielberg has to be watching!

4 8 15 16 23 42

Authorities reveal key clue as they hunt Mr Ali, mystery Iranian businessman who booked their tickets

Read more: Missing Air Malaysia plane passenger on stolen passport 'looked like Mario Balotelli' | Mail Online
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Interesting, but if it was a plot to destroy or steal the plane, someone would have come forward by now to claim victory. I think Mr. Ali will be some small bit criminal who got these two guys passports so they could travel. Maybe they are wanted and on the run from authorities. Nevertheless the plane is lost and if these guys had a plan to blow the plane up, the vast ongoing sea and air search would have revealed something by now. Very puzzling indeed. Mr. Ali on the otherhand must be freaking out given he is now getting international recognition. A two bit hood makes the worlds most wanted. Wow!

The longer this goes on, the less crazy this sounds.

I think I read this week that the pilots can turn off the transponder, is that accurate? Could hijackers force them to turn it off, then fly somewhere else with nobody knowing where they are? I don't see how a plane can crash in the ocean and not leave a huge amount of debris behind.

And in the end, none of this really matters. The families are going through hell right now and the uncertainty must be making it even worse. I mean, what if they NEVER learn more than what they know today? Hard to get closure.

I can't speak for the 777, but in most aircraft the transponder can be shut off or disabled. Not so with the ELT, which should have been automatically activated in the event of a crash.

I was expecting that some terrorist group would have taken credit by now. But then khadaffi never took responsibility for Lockerbie.

All just speculation.

Kinda hard to make a 777 go stealth :)

If that scenario were true (transponder off) and the plane flew to a remote destination, least we forget satillite reconnaissance. Fuel remaining, outer range of B-777 (was it the LR?), noted fields capable of handling the B-777, go to remote fields, etc. How many? A dozen? Two dozen? Whats the liklihood of visual confirmation (Malaysian markings) by anyone and reporting it by now? It ain't no Cessna 150 landing in the Gobi desert!

Is it feasible, plausible or possible? Maybe, but doubtful.

This may well fall into the realm of something well beyond our scope and boundary. Keep thinking people..................

How hard would it be to bulldoze a mile long strip on a remote island? Just good enough to touch down, not to use as an airport. We have satellites, but you have to know where to look to find what you're looking for. Not saying it's likely, just wondering how possible. Seems more likely than pilots not notifying of an emergency, or a plane crashing and not leaving any debris behind.

Do not forget passengers with cell phones. Would that null that out then as far as a remote location? Someone would know something by now and why go that far? You could hold hostages anywhere.

You almost have to start thinking like Tom Clancey or what think tank in the CIA might be formulating. Makes all the possibilities interesting. Could be the biggest mystery of this century so far if someone does not find something soon.

The Boeing 777 cockpit.http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1394477320.jpg
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1394477342.jpg

You can de-activate the transponders for sure. The point of the ELT is only valid if they did indeed crash, if hijacked and instructed to kill outgoing transmissions the aircraft could be turned fully black by the crew. Not as easy these days as it was, but doable.
And if it was an over-ocean at altitude take over then cell phones would be a moot point, one would expect they could remove all cell's from passenger before re-entering a service area, or they could employ a simple cell jammer.

And you have to remember as well, if it was hijacked and landed somewhere, you do not as a terrorist need a field that you can then take off from. An aircraft can land in a surprisingly small run in a pinch, flying out is when the field length is necessary.

I'm thinking this is the most reasonable explanation, given what we "know" so far, at least as to why the plane is still missing. Evidence indicates the plane making a turn, but how long it flew in that new direction ended at 2:41 a.m. If the plane continued on after disappearing, it may be in the Adaman Sea or even on the Malay peninsula somewhere. Still, it's anyone's guess as to why there was not voice communications during this whole time.

Indeed, to *see* over the horizon - the signal needs to be bouncing off the atmosphere or ground - which makes pinpointing location not quite that useful. Long Range Rader lets you know something is out there, but that is pretty much it.

The accuracy of the ATC position in this case comes from the aircraft systems, not ATC's radars. So a gross position error on the aircraft would translate to a gross position error for ATC.
Essentially the aircraft nav systems keep track of where the aircraft is and when "pinged" by ATC radar (radio transmission asking for position data) the AC transponder reports the position. Real radar is a transmitted signal going out, bouncing off a target and returning. In this system the outbound signal and the return signal are not the same signal at all, the out bound is received by the AC and a new signal return generated by the xponder.

Perhaps one of the cockpit crew slipped the other one a pill to disable him, then did a banzai suicide run straight down into the ocean. If the plane went straight in, at a steep angle, it could possibly take quite a while for the debris to be visible. Just a WAG.

I'm going to bring this up again, for the third time, because I'm becoming more and more convinced it will play a part in the final outcome.

The plane lost contact/communication at ~1:22 am, when it failed to turn over control of the flight path to Vietnamese controllers. This could be the beginning of the incident whether it be from electronic failure or human intervention. Regardless, the plane continued to fly and be identified for another hour and nineteen minutes. It is most likely this identification was from the plane itself, not land based radar. During this hour plus flying, the plane changed course, apparently heading for home, when the identification signal stopped. It was 2:41 a.m.

Whatever caused the initial loss of contact with the Vietnamese controllers could account for any future failures at voice communications--that's why the crew never called out for help nor notified home of their plight. Perhaps the communication failure was being addressed as they continued on, discovered to be more serious that originally believed, and the crew decided to turn back. During the return flight, whatever caused the initial communication failure compounded into a failure of the broadcast system that identifies the plane, and so the plane "disappears" from ground receptors at 2:41 a.m. How far did it travel in that hour and nineteen minutes? What direction was it traveling? Did the plane continue to fly after the identification signal stopped? If so, how much longer?

All the above is just speculation, of course, based on limited information. However, I'm beginning to think they will find the plane far from where the initial search has taken place. Further, and for no logical reason, I'm starting to doubt the terrorist angle. I offer these thoughts as fodder to us all in a general discussion of this mystery, and in an attempt to move away from the tin foil hat explanations of aliens, Bermuda Triangles, and complicated kidnapping plots.

Plausible. But what event could 100% disable the communications system on the airplane while still allowing it to fly for AT LEAST another 1:20? Remember that it's a modern 777 with three VHF radios, two HF radios, satellite phone, and satellite datalink. It also likely had satellite internet access. These systems would be isolated for safety and redundancy so that one incident couldn't take them all out.

Was there not some question on the 'turn around'? What was the reason for this not being clear? I'm a bit lost on this.

I agree completely, and I can offer no clue as to the event or events. That is the only thing that makes me still lean toward a human intervention. I can't offer any insights to a cause of the failures but there are some possible insights as to where the plane may be and why it may be there.

They found the guy that bought the tickets. He's Iranian. But he contacted authorities when he heard the story. It doesn't sound like he's exactly trying to hide.

Why this route? I just don't see who stands to gain from attacking such a diverse route. I certainly don't see how an Iranian terror group would benefit.

To get the three Americans.

Trying to figure out the logic of terrorists is impossible.

Okay, new information (to me.)

After some deeper investigating, I found that the time the plane disappeared from radar (ATC) was actually ~1:22 a.m. but that the Airline wasn't informed, officially, until 2:41 a.m. That accounts for the hour and nineteen minute gap. With that information, I would dismiss my scenario, above, as a possibility. It appears that the course change and disappearance all occurred at about the same time.

I'm back on board with those who see a sudden, catastrophic event but I'm open to ideas as to high altitude disintegration or crash into the sea. It's still quite a mystery.

There are some interesting theories coming up. The best ones are supported by hard facts and aviation knowledge. And there has been a little overlap of those sources in the discussion.
Now - I THINK - that the passport issue might be overestimated by the public based on the other information brought up here. The passport problem is scary. But an explanation for the lack of communication while in the air still had me thinking of a hijacking. The pilots might be forced to stay off the comms or hijackers took control while directing the flight on new vectors once it is past ground radar - with simulated position data giving false vectors. Sophisticated and far fetched - but I had to throw my theory in the ring. I read too much Tom Clancy. I would be searching an area determined by last ground radar position and remaining fuel - a huge swath. Perhaps there are clues in the dis/continuity and background data (GPS type - satellites used) in the Avionics feed. I read this discussion expecting our aviation experts to have some answers - I think the smartest ones are holding their tongues.

FYI:

Input from my neighbor - a US Air pilot.

Asked him if there was a consensus amongst his peers and he said "No one knows anything other than what has thus far been reported. It's truly a mystery."

Then I asked for his opinion.

He said he's leaning toward some human related intervention. He also said the radar systems in that part of the world are a bit sketchy.....so the searchers may not even be searching in the right area(s).

He also said the planes have both homing devices which are activated when triggered by a certain G force level or hit by water. Also the black box gives off a beacon. But if those are down past a certain depth - they are not detectable.

He said we may never know what happened or we may find out soon...really no way of knowing how it will play out.

For how long can a plane be flown at "sea level" and would that show up on radar. If set into water at a low angle/height would it break up or just sink? In a steep angle dunk, the plane would break up...wouldn't it?

Sea level is very inefficient fuel-wise. It can be done but range will suffer a lot versus "at altitude" (iirc jet engines are usually optimized for FL360).

If an aircraft is slowed enough and proper techniques employed it's possible to ditch in water (Sullenburger, Hudson River). A steep descent into water at cruise or cruise-descent speed would be a guaranteed fatal outcome for everyone on board.

The theory that makes the most sense to me is the lane was hijacked, and landed somewhere in the jungle. Here is my "supporting evidence":

1. The stolen passports, of course.
2. The fact that the location beacons were not activated, means there was not crash impact to activate them.
3. The fact that no crash debris have been found yet says there was no crash.
4. The fact that some familly members have been able to call the cell phones but get no answers, means the cell phones are not deep under the ocean.

I hope we find the truth about this soon enough...

On a radio program today I heard from a probability specialist how the Air France plane wreck was finally located on the bottom of the Atlantic. The specialist discussed both the Malaysia Air and the Air France plane losses and the method by which they finally located the Air France plane. I understand That the theory was developed in WW2 by the British to find locations of U-Boats. Basically it uses all unsuccessful search attempts, ocean currents, and all available data to finally pin point a likely location of the crashed Air France plane. It is a long process. The specialist also pointed out that it took 6 days before the first pieces of the Air France wreck were located floating on the Atlantic. And it took two years to finally locate the plane wreck after the probability theory was applied. Then it was found within one week!

From Wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447

"2011 search and recovery[edit]In July 2010, the US-based search consultancy Metron had been engaged to draw up a probability map of where to focus the search, based on prior probabilities from flight data and local condition reports, combined with the results from the previous searches. The Metron team used what it described as "classic" Bayesian search methods, an approach that had previously been successful in the search for the submarine USS Scorpion. Phase 4 of the search operation started in the area identified by the Metron study as being the most likely resting place of flight 447.[119]


Cable ship Île de Sein was assigned to assist in the recovery of materials from the ocean floor.Within a week of resuming of the search operation, on 3 April 2011, a team led by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution operating full ocean depth autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) owned by the Waitt Institute discovered, by means of sidescan sonar, a large portion of debris field from flight AF447.[119] Further debris and bodies, still trapped in the partly intact remains of the aircraft's fuselage, were located in water depths of between 3,800 to 4,000 metres (2,100 to 2,200 fathoms; 12,500 to 13,100 ft). The debris was found to be lying in a relatively flat and silty area of the ocean floor (as opposed to the extremely mountainous topography that was originally believed to be AF447's final resting place).[citation needed] Other items found were engines, wing parts and the landing gear.[120]

"

Anybody hear from DB Cooper lately?

Keep it simple. Plane had a catastrophic event, comms systems cut off, from crusing speed and altitude it plunged into ocean, beacons all underwater thus not detectable. Not found debris yet - but its a big ocean.

But the Gulf of Thailand is not deep at all. Compared to where Air France ended up, it's like wading.

Black boxes are supposed to ping for up to a month, I understand. That signal could be picked up by sensitive Navy audio locator equipment. right?

This.

Once active, the Dukane DK120 emits a pulse once a second that can be detected by sonar equipment up to two nautical miles away. The beacon works at a depth of 20,000 feet — far deeper than the waters where officials believe the Malaysian plane went down.

Read more: Malaysia Airlines Black Boxes - Business Insider

But could it also fly "under the radar" and land somewhere else?

I discount the cellphone thing. That makes no sense. What are people expecting to get? A busy signal? Call any cell phone that's off.

A Viet. Air Controller thinks he' saw that on his console. Nobody knows for sure. No good pilot would turn around without getting on the radio. I also heard the plane has 5 electrical systems and 3-5 radios.

Then why was there an abrupt loss of contact on radar?

Everything that I've read indicates that the ATC in that part of the world has sparse radar coverage and relies instead on the aircraft transponder signal and location reporting from the crew. Unlike the USA, this is apparently pretty common in less developed nations. Were that the case, loss of contact could have been as easy as switching off the transponder.

Different world, but in the USA if you switched off the transponder and quit responding to radio calls you would have some F16 escorts pretty quickly.