Are Smartphones Mature?

[jyl]

This technology has so much potential. Read . . .

https://techcrunch.com/2016/10/14/flexible-e-paper-display-is-full-color-but-less-than-a-micrometer-thick/

In a typical smartphone, the display backlight is something like 50% to 75% of the power consumption depending on the phone's state. https://ts.data61.csiro.au/publications/papers/Carroll_Heiser_10.pdf

AMOLED screens don't have backlights - the LEDs themselves emit the light - but they still use roughly similar power to conventional backlit screens. Analysing AMOLED Power Efficiency Improvements

I guess we know little to nothing about the color e-paper display, but monochrome e-paper screens use very little power. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_paper

Suppose your iPhone 14 had power consumption 25% of the ancient iPhone 7. And, to make the phone thick enough to comfortably hold, Apple was "forced" to include a battery 2X the volume of the old '7's battery. So the '14's battery life might be 8X the '7's . . . could we have the smartphone that only needs charging weekly?

Okay, I'm conveniently overlooking the problems that e-link has with video due to slow refresh rate, and other problems too.

But suppose you could also unfold your '14, like a map, to be the size of a magazine . . .

Part of the bear thesis on AAPL is that smartphones are a mature technology, with decreasing reason for consumers to upgrade to each new generation. Suppose we're only in a "pause" in smartphone technology, with another big surge yet to come?

[red-beard]

Yes. Better life, larger screen. Better resolution. Tweaks = mature

Phone makers are noticing. People are skipping a phone and not upgrading.

[Nickshu]

To me it seems like similar to electric cars, battery technology is, and will continue to be, the limiting factor.

OtterBox is based in my town, they were really hurt financially by the two biggest carriers (ATT/Verizon) getting rid of their 2 year upgrade programs. People are keeping phones now and not buying new cases. The new phones are not better enough than the last ones to justify the $600-800 pricetag every 2 years.

[red-beard]

As I sit here, a jet flew overhead.

They are mature. Everything is a slight refinement. We have not had a revolution in travel since the 1950s.

[JD159]

Have you seen the Samsung prototype videos? They show exactly what your describing. Phones that fold.

It's definitely in our future and probably not as far off as we think.

[stomachmonkey]

A guy I have partnered with in business a couple of times has the patent for multi screen mobile devices.

Filed it like 20 years ago.

His concepts made the cover of Popular Mechanics or some rag like that.

Told him then, it's great, but how are you going to power it for more than 10 minutes at a time.

With any luck they'll get there before he dies.

[scottmandue]

e-paper has been around for a while, I saw it on display in Boston about a decade ago (in monochrome).
Kinda surprised it hasn't been utilized, imagine a paper thin Kindle. Or an electronic newspaper, plug it in every morning and it uploads all the latest news.

[pwd72s]

They may be mature, but many currently using them aren't.

[WolfeMacleod]

Originally Posted by stomachmonkey

A guy I have partnered with in business a couple of times has the patent for multi screen mobile devices.

Filed it like 20 years ago.

His concepts made the cover of Popular Mechanics or some rag like that.

Told him then, it's great, but how are you going to power it for more than 10 minutes at a time.

With any luck they'll get there before he dies.

Should be expired by now, or soon...

[scottmandue]

Sorry but I can't stop thinking about this commercial:

[djmcmath]

For quite a while now, we've been experiencing exponential growth in computing technology. Moore's Law is literally an observed exponential growth curve for the last few decades. Anytime else in history, we'd call this kind of growth "a revolution." You know, like "the industrial revolution," for example. Eventually, this incredible pace of growth has to return to something like a linear progression.

Am I wrong?

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by djmcmath

For quite a while now, we've been experiencing exponential growth in computing technology. Moore's Law is literally an observed exponential growth curve for the last few decades. Anytime else in history, we'd call this kind of growth "a revolution." You know, like "the industrial revolution," for example. Eventually, this incredible pace of growth has to return to something like a linear progression.

Am I wrong?

Yes. You are wrong.

The issue is that we are rapidly reaching the point where electrical technology cannot be made smaller, since we're down to pathways the size of atoms. We will need a revolutionary technology, probably a laser based computer.

[RANDY P]

nope. They never will be.

[scottmandue]

I know google glass came and went but they were WAY too expensive and clunky.
However with advances if they could miniaturize a cell phone to the point where it could fit in glass frames that might be a thing.
Answer the phone by tapping your ear like a bluetooth, project the incoming number on the lens.
If you want to surf the web or use GPS project that onto the lens.
They even have that thing were you hold you phone up while you walk down the street and it shows you all the business in front of you.

[scottmandue]

Originally Posted by red-beard

We will need a revolutionary technology, probably a laser based computer.

The most difficult part will be breading the tint little sharks to mount those lasers on.

[KNS]

Originally Posted by red-beard

As I sit here, a jet flew overhead.

They are mature. Everything is a slight refinement. We have not had a revolution in travel since the 1950s.

Off topic (sorry) - Boeing noticed the same thing and was working on a new, revolutionary jetliner that would fly New York to Europe in a much shorter time, they saw that the need was there. Didn't look like your typical tube with wings either. September 11th happened and the project was shelved.

[aigel]

Phones are already more efficient but the improvements are eaten up with larger screens and higher performance processes that do more and are used more. I.e. part of the reason a flip phone battery lasted a week was that you didn't use it with its display on 5 hours a day.

The day will come when screens are very efficient and batteries will be better too. But will the rate of improvement be rapid enough to keep up with screen size and performance / usage increase?

Overall I think the smartphone has been commoditized. Not a lot of excitement about new models. The only good thing for the industry is that smart phone use is very widespread, so it still is a decent market, if half the worlds population owns / uses one. I checked, and it looks like almost a third of the world already has a smart phone. That's amazing.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/330695/number-of-smartphone-users-worldwide/

G

[M.D. Holloway]

cranial implants...its coming.

[JavaBrewer]

Social media stepped in and upped the minimum spec. Hardware has not yet caught up.

[RKDinOKC]

Instead of a heads-up display on your windshield an eyes-open display on glasses.

Augments Reality, AR instead of Virtual Reality, VR.