Depreciation

[GH85Carrera]

Originally Posted by 911Envy

Who else has noticed that 911's have been aging on various & popular websites and not selling?

I have seen cars moved from dealer to dealer. I have seen cars meet 2/3's of asking price on auction sites. I see a glut of turbos. I see Haggarty low #3 or #4 cars with obscene prices and not selling. I see many good quality cars with documentation when 1-2 years ago I'd see maybe 1.

Is it a glut of product, increasing interest rates, less foreign buyers, or something else?

This sure looks like a troll post. The guy joins in Dec 2016 and has 4 posts and comes to a Porsche board and post this?

Who are you and what do yoy know about 911s ? Honest question.

[greglepore]

The entire market has softened a bit. Was just discussing this with my local wrench, who flips Ferrari's for a living. Stock bubble has pulled some money out of cars. Political climate. Guys who think that the cars are a bubble and serious money is on the sidelines. Combination of factors.

Tabs is right though. The cream of the crop, the true collector vehicles, haven't really softened. What have is the "consumer grade" cars that went along for the ride but were never really worth the same amount of coin as the the true rarities.

Glen -

I am a numbers guy. I can spot a potential problem ten miles away in ten minutes. How many times do you figure a car not selling on Ebay is problem and troll worthy? Does it take 40 years of experience to Google a VIN (75,000+ miles, 3+/2- Haggarty rating, window sticker and almost all maintenance docs) and see that it has been on Ebay since April of 2016 8 times with an asking price of almost $50K, but has never reached past $35K? Does it take that same 40 years of experience to look at the bid history and wonder why someone would increase a bid by $5,000 or $10,000 when they could just bid $100 and use the automatic bidding function? Again, how much experience is needed to follow a car for sale at a dealer ship in AZ, then to FL, then to TN OR just dealer to dealer to dealer using Google to check the VIN? To give you some insight, Glen, I explained what I am asking to my 16 year daughter over the weekend using viola's as the example she could relate and, guess what, with 5 minutes 38 seconds she figured it out. So is it experience that is the concern or just common sense back by a little intellectual horsepower?

Cheers

[Deschodt]

I've been thinking this for a while now, too... The current prices are driving me off the P-car hobby...

I agree, to me the SC was a fun $15-25K car. At current prices it jumped off the fun/price chart...
I sold both my 912s last year (purchased for peanuts way back when) for that reason, yes they were fun cars, but not 40K fun !

The problem is insurance premiums go up, part prices go up, labor goes up... And everyone sees one car do extremely well and applies that to their rusty POS. No deals anymore.. You just have to be in the right place when reality sets, to get an OK price... at best. Also it's hard to turn a blind eye to value when people makes you unsollicited offers at the shop, at the mall, and if you want to keep values up you are kinda locked into "stock" and not going too crazy with mods.... All in all it's a lot less fun than it used to be for me.... I still enjoy my Old BMW 2002, because they are worth less, cost less to maintain.... Price a flat six rebuild and get back to me.... 20K for 200 hp or less in some cases ? I got a 2002 head for $100 !

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by cashflyer

I think flippers and others ran up the prices and then owners decided they could sell and make a mint. And it ain't panning out. When the sellers stop thinking that an average SC is worth $40k to $50k, and bring the prices to a reasonable level, then the buyers will be there with cash in hand.

^^^^ this ^^^^^^^

[BReif61]

As a Porsche owner who only has two 944's that probably aren't worth $10k together, I'm all for the bubble bursting if that means I can grab myself a 993 C2 for under $30k. It's not like I'm losing a hypothetical fortune when my two devalue lol.

[p911dad]

I have noticed (not by the scientific method) that the steady appreciation of prices of mid year 911's does seem to have stalled out. I have noticed a lot for sale in the past few months, and maybe the ready availability of good cars has slowed the price rise. I do have a question about the politics: how is that related to the market for these cars? If anything, a lot of folks have seen their market investments shoot up a good amount in the past few months, making more cash available to spread around.

[john70t]

This thread should be titled "Appreciation".

Not only for being able to drive a unique style of sports car (which personally saved my life during a thrash more than once) but also a unique and heralded brand with an established history history in both the racing and consumer world.

[sc_rufctr]

Agreed John. My humble 78SC is worth a lot more now than when I bought it more than 17 years ago.

Keeping it was one of the best post divorce decisions I've made. That's good enough for me.

[911boost]

I agree with your bolded text Peter, my 964T paid for a good chunk of my house after the divorce.

Interestingly I paid just a few thousand more for my 996TT in 2015 than I did for the 964T in 2007. I have zero illusions of the value going up on it and drive it to work a lot, but still only have 38,xxx miles on it.

The air cooled VW market has gotten a bit crazy too.

Bill

If evidence is needed, then why did a 87 cab below 35,000 mile car, no accidents, original paint, new top, clean CF, and some other bits just sell for $40ish when other similar cars are on the market for $58K to $79K?

[billybek]

Originally Posted by 911Envy

If evidence is needed, then why did a 87 cab below 35,000 mile car, no accidents, original paint, new top, clean CF, and some other bits just sell for $40ish when other similar cars are on the market for $58K to $79K?

Lots of factors could be involved.
Uneducated seller?
Mechanical or other problem revealed by PPI?
Seller location?
Seller's financial situation/quick painless sale?

Hard to say.

[sc_rufctr]

Originally Posted by 911Envy

If evidence is needed, then why did a 87 cab below 35,000 mile car, no accidents, original paint, new top, clean CF, and some other bits just sell for $40ish when other similar cars are on the market for $58K to $79K?

Do you have a link to the sale?

Link down due to sale. Seller was the shop that has maintained the car for the owner since 2012. Mainly a BMW shop. Car was in Cali. To your point, the (1) owner may have been done and just wanted gone. The were $35,000+ in receipts over last 5 years to bring car up to a very nice standard - probably a Hagarty 2 minus. Talked with the guy and I'd have been a buyer at $30K, so I told him to take that offer and run.

How many more months will it take for the exotic shops to be in a financial situation because of their monthly nut to start fire selling their inventory to make payroll and rent? They just can't keep whole selling to each other. Not to mention all the turbos and M491 etc that have gone into restorations a year or so ago that will be landing in this market.

No one answered how higher lending rates will affect the market.

Another issue is higher FED interest rates in the US due to a 3% economy vs the 1% from the last 8 years will strengthen the dollar. Result, making foreign purchases of vehicles increasing more expensive. What will all the exotic dealers do with a dwindling foreign demand?

To someones point above, why buy a Hagarty 4 car for $33,000 that needs $10-15K in engine rebuild, $3-5K in interior, $2-3K, in general clean-up, and etc. for a total of $48-56K? The market is overwhelmed with low quality left and right - up and down. Turbos and M491's in mint condition are really struggling as well. Guys who want toys can easily convince a spouse that $20-30K is doable, more of a sales job at $50K, $75K you'd better have a real good income, and over $100K the spouse better have everything they've wanted in life or you are single. Heck, a great used Harley is more bang for the buck for many. Not me but many when toy prices get stupid.

As an update:

1. found out a 83 coupe solid 3- by Haggarty standards with less than 80K sold for $25 ($5K loss) to another dealer - its 3rd since June of 2015. It was above $42K asking originally.

2. found out a 87 cab solid 2- by Haggarty standards with less than 70K sold for $29 to another dealer who has it up for $40K. Original dealer had for 7 months.

3. found out a 88 cab solid 3+ by Haggarty standards with less than 85K has been on market for 9 months with one offer $15K under asking

4. Found out a 89 cab solid 2- by Haggarty standards with less than 85K has been on market for year and a half with a least 9 different auctions, none over $35K which is insanely lower than asking.

5. Found out a M491 with low mileage has been on the market for a year. Original list stating it was being taken off because reserve not met. He hasn't had realistic offer less than $20K asking.

I have another 2 dozen with similar stories. Are us Porsche owners delusional? Anyone seeing this in the Ferrari, Lambo, etc markets? How much long can the exotic dealers rotate inventory before they are cash starved and will sell at any price to pay their nut or close before bankrupcy?

Envious of those that owned in 2011 and sold in 2015-16

[Deschodt]

I agree with that ^. Also read/heard about dealers rotating their stocks, wholesaling to one another. I get the classic car phenomenon and resulting appreciation, but I am at a loss as well...

Originally Posted by 911Envy

Envious of those that owned in 2011 and sold in 2015-16

I sold both my long hood 912s (SWB+LWB) for exactly that reason in 2015-2016. They were fun, but not that $$$level of fun or risk. Cashed in, cut the risks of a potential $15K rebuild for a damn 90 hp 616 engine (are you kidding me?). But don't be jealous: with the proceeds I bought a 991, which is a depreciating asset, so I'm stupid but I feel like I'm getting my $ worth in performance at least...

I've owned practically one of each 356-911 generation models over the past 20 years, we all have our scale of fun/price ratio. Personally from a driver/owner standpoint, I feel a late 356 coupe is acceptable up to $40K uber-max (not current 80). An early 911S at $200+ makes no sense to me, nor does a 75K 911T but even so the 125K gap for a few more HP does not computer either. I don't understand a $50K SC (nor do I see them selling), lovely tractors, unkillable, but it's at most a $30K car factoring appreciation... 993 was fine at $40 for me too, no more... Otherwise a Cayman S/996TT is a better car... etc...

Guess I'm stuck at wholesale levels, but I've bought a bunch of those over the years (as an average enthusiast, not all at once) and if *I'm* getting out of the classic P-car market, given my love of classics and porsches, that probably means I'm not alone and the market has gone nuts - I'm just as nuts as I ever was, and I'm out...

PS: Keeping my 1973 2002 though - cheap, just as fun, priced sensibly.

[SoCal911T]

Originally Posted by 911Envy

Anyone seeing this in the Ferrari, Lambo, etc markets?

I know e28 M5 prices have gone through the roof the last couple of years.

[greglepore]

Originally Posted by SoCal911T

I know e28 M5 prices have gone through the roof the last couple of years.

Yeah...count the numbers. They're more rare than early S cars...Had one and let it get away, will never forgive it.

[manbridge 74]

I think someone is PushingMyLuck.

[Bill Douglas]

I don't really care if my SC has gone up or down in value, it's my car to drive and enjoy.

It's a bit like being concerned that my house has gone up in value and I should move to a poorer neighborhood.