Where do you think early S prices will be a year from now?

[reed930]

With all the hype about the soaring prices of the early cars-- especially Ss--I'm reminded of the way most markets work. That is, just when everyone thinks that prices can only go up, the peak has been reached.

I've seen this happen so many times now that even I can see some of the warning signs. As these cars age, the supply is surely diminshed, but then too maybe so is the demand. Just ask those who collect cars from the twenties and thirties. Those cars, even the blue chip ones, seem to languish in the market.

So I guess what I'm asking is not so much if the prices of the early cars will stabilize, but when. Any ideas?

[dmcummins]

I would think the economy has something to do with prices. When the stock market was high I felt the wealth effect and bought land, motorcycles, boats, ect. So did alot of others and this drove prices up. Also the ones who would be interested in cars from the late 60's early 70's are probably around 50 now. You want cars that you couldn't have when you were 16.

If the 50yr olds have disposable income the prices of the early cars will probably not drop much. I believe you can get a nice original early S for 25k to 35k. Thats just pickup truck money now.

Of coarse I've been wrong before. At least the land I bought has gone up in value. I don't expect the toys to appreciate. I would't wait to get what I wanted expecting the prices to fall either.

[TKO]

Chris,

Umm, good question. I think the reason for less demand for cars from the 20's and 30's is because people from our generation cannot relate to them as well anymore, at least I can't. That is also the same reason the cars from the 70's are growing in popularity (Porsche included). So.... it may be awhile before prices stabilize.

[Randy Webb]

When gas is $6/gallon the value of these cars will suffer.

[epbrown]

Someone in Sports Car Market mentioned that the rise in muscle car prices is that the boomers are rich enough to indulge in the cars they admired as kids, and I suspect there's a lot to that.

As for soaring early car prices, I'm blame the weakness of the dollar against the Euro and British pound - we're being cherry-picked because a $20k 911S here is
~#11k over there and to the Euro-Boomers the 911 is their version of muscle cars. Until the currency values equalize, the situation will continue. Just this once, I agree with Bruce Anderson: if you see a decent deal on an early 911 and you've got the money - jump on it! Prices aren't going to go down again, and 20 years from now we'll be like the 356 guys going "Damn, I was offered one of those for $10,000 back in '04, and it looked better than that piece of crap they're asking $20k for..."

Where I differ from most is this: I think the early targas are going to go up more than coupes. Once the vintage racers have their coupes, people will want open top 911s and pay through the nose to get them. Remember, I said it first - targas.

Emanuel

[dtw]

I think another great questions is, where will the early T prices be a year or so from now? I'm seeing indicators that the US market is starting to value these cars more in line with the Es and Ss, as Europe has for a while now. No, not equal values, but certainly less polarity than 3 years ago. A few years ago I saw very nice Ts trading below $10k, now similar cars are, in some cases, pushing $20k.

[targa911S]

Originally posted by epbrown
Where I differ from most is this: I think the early targas are going to go up more than coupes. Once the vintage racers have their coupes, people will want open top 911s and pay through the nose to get them. Remember, I said it first - targas.

Emanuel

I belive I believe!

[Matt Smith]

I believe too!

Some of the 20's/30's cars are the best ever, but a 911 is different. There is an unbroken lineage up to now- and with the 997 it seems the shape will be with us for a long time yet.
They have always been, and will be for a long time yet a desirable car to many.

Where the early 911 wins is its purity. Sure, they're old now, but they still look like a 911 should. They drive reasonably modern (compared to other 60's /70's cars) and they have an undeniable retro look to their finish.

This is the market as I see it:

*People who couldn't afford one when they were new. A perenial, but the desirable models change as the years pass.

*People who like 911's, but want a cheap one (but for not much longer?)

*Classic car guys. These are the ultimate practical classic sports car, and this period represents the best of pre-legislation form & function

*Style gurus. Skinny wheels, slim hips and chrome trim look cool nowdays.

This is a large base to draw from- larger than most old cars. I believe values will continue to climb. Jury is out on the targas, but I know which one I'd pick for a sunny clear day's drive to clear the working week cobwebs.

[pwd72s]

I hope not too much higher...the last offer I got was semi-tempting...but I was in a P.O.ed mood at the time. These days, I don't go on PCA whinery tours...

[rzepko6194]

Originally posted by Randy Webb
When gas is $6/gallon the value of these cars will suffer.

I disagree. How many miles are these early cars driven each year? 2 to 3K, maybe. That's about $600 a year at $6 per gallon. Chump change.

[pwd72s]

JP has a point...at $6, hell make it $20 per gallon? I'd still probably keep my '72S. Simply because I do drive it less than 2,500 miles per year. The "daily driver" is the one that has Cindy and I both thinking of ways to reduce our annual mileage. I mean you gotta go, we all do. How far and how often is the question. Is it just me? I believe I've seen a reduction in traffic density lately. More people like myself, who have decided that gas cost IS part of the budget. Not enough to keep me from the swap meet this weekend. But enough to make me think about turning a key. But hell, less density of traffic because of high gas prices? I guess that means that my "runs" in the '72 will become more fun. It's the poor S.O.B. who has to drive 50 miles plus, to & from a job he doesn't like that I feel sorry for...

[Randy Webb]

Same here - but I think it will affect value -- a lot of people drive their 911s a lot -- or think they want to when buying.

For the rest of us, the weekly gas bill can be hugely reduced if you:
- work at home (or retire at home)
- telecommute
- live near transit
- walk or bike

I've done them all. Using a car for recreation (more or less only) makes my life a lot nicer.

[pwd72s]

Originally posted by Randy Webb
Same here - but I think it will affect value -- a lot of people drive their 911s a lot -- or think they want to when buying.

For the rest of us, the weekly gas bill can be hugely reduced if you:
- work at home (or retire at home)
- telecommute
- live near transit
- walk or bike

I've done them all. Using a car for recreation (more or less only) makes my life a lot nicer.

Randy, you & I disagree on the "value" thing. Old, but mint muscle cars, with their poor gas mileage, are currently raking in auction bids beyond the $125K or so I've seen real RS's get. These are hardly economy cars.
It's your prescription for "the rest of us" that puts a bee up my ass. I live miles from the nearest store of any kind, a mini mart.
I'm supposed to walk 8 miles to buy a quart of milk?
IMHO, you share the views of our admitted pedophile ex-Governor of Oregon. That is, bike or walk or mass transit for the unwashed peons...only bureaucrats or politicians allowed to use the roads. "Neil" blocked the building of the Mt. Hood Freeway, insisting that the $$ be spent on "light rail" in the Portland area instead. I wonder if he'd have gotten what he wanted if the people of this state knew he was porking a supporter's 14 year old daughter? Elitism at it's highest...or perhaps it's lowest? Sorry, but I get really P.O.ed when people living in a state's major population areas tell we who live in the sticks how we should live or cope. Eugene? Is that now number 2, or is it 3rd of this state's most populous areas? I'm not sure. Do lemme know the next time you're coming through my area...I'll be sure to tell all the locals to put on their Lil' Abner and Daisy Mae costumes for your amusement...

[techweenie]

I think there was too much of a run up in asking prices in the first quarter, but '69-73 911s are still a good place to park $8-30K for a year or two.

1. They aren't making any more.
2. What Porsche's making now is great, but not the same.
3. So many cars went to Yurrup, Mexico, Canada, Japan, etc. when the dollar tanked that they are more rare than ever.

I'm starting to see a shift away from the spare, unoptioned cars to more fully-optioned drivers, which means more people are thinking of daily use instead of HSDE. So power windows, sunroofs and A/C are starting to be real plusses in the market -- at least the market I see.

[Oldporsche]

I guess what I'm starting to see are the collectors that typically like the muscle cars are starting to buy early 911's without really much interest them as cars.

Last tuesday night a friend of mine who's been trading cars for a living came buy for a visit. He's made quite a bit of money recently subdividing a farm he recieved as an inheritance. He has bought, he claims, a certified, '75 930. The car had the plad interior and I think a green paint job with a strip down the side similar to the martini cars. The thing was heavily modified in the engine department. He also mentioned that he recently bought a 72 911T that was an "absolute sewing machine" of a car. This was mentioned along with a couple of street type drag cars, etc.

My point is that when I see folks like this buying cars on speculation, I start to see the market rising. These guys don't know much or care much for the car if they are visiting me after they buy it!

I would say at this point in time the market is going up.

David Duffield

[Randy Webb]

"Do lemme know the next time you're coming through my area...I'll be sure to tell all the locals to put on their Lil' Abner and Daisy Mae costumes for your amusement"

- Ok, Paul. Exactly where do you live? I'll put on my camo gear. I wuz raised a real live Louisiana (Louseyana) red neck, so a bunch of Oregon wimp-wanna be rednecik's is not gonna impress me a bit. Ever eat road kill? I promise you is not gonna out redneck me, and your attempts are gittin ohn may nerves, oK? Wanna back off a bit? I esp. am pissed by your attempt sto link me to Goldburg.

Now, got anything to respond to substantively re my last post?? If yo uchoose to live where you are forced to drive then you ar eforced to drive. Nuf said.

[RoninLB]

some good thinking on.. it wasn't stressed that there isn't a specific time line for any 911 investment increase.. a bunch of factors are in play now. baby boomers and Euro liquidity seem to be the strongest factors.. the collector pro will jump where the action is.. all imho.
fuel price affects commuter cars.. if I take a 20k mi ride and it cost $1200 last yr.. it's not going to affect me at $2,400.
and fwiw, I did an 8k mi cross country loop in 2weeks. In a 2yr old '69 427 390 'vette w/a buddy and we averaged 9-10mi/gal.. you can almost watch the gas gauge drop at 80-90mph.

[speeder]

Originally posted by RoninLB

and fwiw, I did an 8k mi cross country loop in 2weeks. In a 2yr old '69 427 390 'vette w/a buddy and we averaged 9-10mi/gal.. you can almost watch the gas gauge drop at 80-90mph.

Like flushing a toilet, I'll bet.

Driving for recreation and owning a performance-oriented car is just going to become more of an elite/luxury type of thing, like living in Europe but w/o the universal healthcare or culture.

[Aussie]

I think the price will steadly go up.

With less 65-73 911's cars on the road the average ones will be restored to their former glory and the top ones will be pampered.

To a great deal of porsche people they are seen as the ultimate classic 911.

I think it would be a lot of peoples dream to be able to have a new 911 and a early model.

[mikes72t]

So my 72 T targa will then really be worth 20k. Wahoo!!