Price Drops Here there and Everywhere...It Has Begun in Earnest

[Alan A]

Back to dropping prices. I was just on everyone’s least favorite antisocial network and saw a 97 4S with 54k on the clock for $79k at a dealer. The last time I saw one close it was asking $109. Whoever said down 30% called that one.

Hell if this keeps up I might be able to get a nice 76 turbo for 5 figures instead of 6.

[Vaive]

Originally Posted by faapgar

Hey,Chicken Little the sky is falling.Look back at this moment in two years and your comments will seem ludicrous.

Are you this guy?

Based on what we know and see in terms of employment and interest rates, it is extremely difficult to see how five years from now we could be looking back and observing a historical 5-year growth rate of, say, less than 5%.
- Chris Flanagan, Head of Research JP Morgan discussing housing in June 2005

Or maybe you're this guy? Yeah I think this guy.

"When you strip away all of the white noise around a housing bubble, what you find is a robust market for housing that is undergoing several profound changes all of which manifest themselves in higher home price indexes, none of which adds up to a housing price bubble."
- Carl Steidtmann, Chief Economist, Deloitte, March 2005

[dwelle]

hey shug, please google something for us:

blo·vi·ate...

[Vaive]

https://preview.tinyurl.com/uvzw6bm

Look at that price drop chart....that's a double diamond ski run boyz.

For sale for over a year and they laughably INCREASED the price last December. Ahh the good old days. Then reality set in over the summer. Wonder how many $55K offers they refused cuz....G50 VISCERAL bro, these are investments, not mere mortal used cars. Prices to infinity and beyond.

Dealers are always the first to run for the exits. The 62 year old who still thinks it's 2016 has no idea what's happening.

[sugarwood]

Cab with Red Lobster interior does not represent the market.
Cabs bad !! Coupe good !!
Cab $20k !! Coupe $200k !!

[matt930s]

Cray-cray.....

Originally Posted by sugarwood

A Ferrari GTO 250 has no intrinsic value, and those cars are worth trillions!!
The 911 is CHEAP. Deep value!!

Of course, these cars only go up in value.
You literally can't pay too much.
Even If you pay $750,000 for a driver level 911, it's still a great move.
Eventually, these cars will be worth infinity.
Sell all your Bitcoin and buy air cooled.

Hagerty has it partly right on why demand is going down. The latest generation of car buyers do not want old cars no matter how cool they might be. The old guys like us are at the point of thinning the collection. The younger buyers want newer cars.

I believe the reason older cars don’t have as much action is twofold. First is it true that people like the cars from their youth. So the buyers today went cars from the 70s 80s or 90s not the 30s 40s 50s and 60s.

This article reminds me of the late 80’s, when pre-WW2 cars took a price tumble. The WW2 generation started to die off, or sell as they got older. Widows were shocked at the auctions, that their husbands cars weren’t worth what their husbands had told them. Prices plummeted, with the possible exception of the top tier coach-built cars

Two, a slow barely perceptual change in generations who are moving the hobby towards the cars they are interested in. My 35 year old nephew a classic example. One day, and it will come, no one will care about a 1972 Porsche 911. Well, maybe a dozen might as tech is spoiling new drivers.
Recently had a mid-80s year old gentleman walk up to me while my cars were outside for washing. He told me mostly about when he was into cars and it was late '30s hotrods. How many are still interested in them and I don’t mean one or two people. I mean hundreds, if not thousands, who could move a market. The answer is obvious.

The target age group for most of these to be nostalgic or tied to is beginning to age out and die off for lack of a better word. Sure the market will carry on for years to come but there will continue to be fewer and fewer people from that timeline. Much like fat fendered street rods of the 80s were hot before them but have since lost their audience


Half of the people that were interested in these cars are already dead. The other half are already well into their 50s. Next time your at a car show or auction look around, you will not see any young people. Every one is 50 plus years old. My prediction is that in 20 years you won’t be able to give most classic or muscle cars away

About ten years ago my wife and I were going out for Sunday breakfast in our 1969 Corvette 427/390hp, numbers matching, M21 4 speed coupe and I opined that these cars would go the way of the Model A once the guys who had drooled over them in their youth had passed away. Then I thought for a minute and said “Why should I care? I’ll be dead.” You’ve gotta take the long term view.


1) Boomers get old, they retire, they stop driving, live in nursing homes, they die, and their Porsche nostalgia dies with them.
2) Demand drops as the Boomers age out, and fewer new people replace their evanescent Porsche demand.

But, not for air cooled !!

911 prices can only go up.
They aren't making any more, so prices can only go in one direction.
Up.
Buy now, or forever be left out.
They will be worth infinity if you wait long enough.


Your generation will not die simultaneously from a large asteroid.
You will die off, slowly, one at a time. Drop by drop.
So, why is it relevant to the topic at hand?
The long term trend can manifest into the short term.

And, rest assured, the long term trend is that fewer and fewer people are lusting after a 1946 Ford Super Deluxe Coupe.
By now, they are all dead or dying. Buyers evaporate, inventory sits longer, and eventually prices reflect that.

And before the court jester says,
"But....but....but....what that gotta do with PORSCH"

A) The cycle never stops. Nothing is immune to time.
B) This is too complicated for you. Find a new discussion.

Those that disagree should start buying up as many of these as possible.
Very limited supply out there!

In the end, when your generation is 100% dead, demand will be much lower than it was when you were alive. Won't matter how great the car was. Victorian furniture is infinitely higher quality than the disposable garbage sold at Bob's Discount. However, demand has evaporated for 17th & 18th century antiques.

But not the 911 !!
If you see a low priced car, that just means its a crappy car.
Your car will always go up and up and up

Do you think that in 2019, demand for a '32 Ford is higher or lower than it was 30 years ago?
B/c the trend is about to be broken! Infinite demand curve!

I never claimed to be Nostradamus.
I said demand for generational nostalgia items decreases over time.
I am correct. When your generation dies off, the production numbers will mean squat.
Model T, '32 Ford, '57 Chevy, Tubbed '67 Camaro......all dwindling demand over decades.
But the 911 will defy laws of physics and fly to the moon !!

It's not a zero sum game, but one clearly cannibalizes the other.
But young people aren't buying archaic watches = dying clientele = dying industry
Some reading on the watch industry and their concerns.
The theme is all the same.

Most 20s car guys are into hot hatch GTI/Golf, Evo, WRX, GM muscle, and truck culture.
Many others simply drive F-150's, Elantra, Focus, Civic, etc.
The freak outlier 20s kid who is into 993 does not mean much of anything.
But he will learn and be converted to air cooled $100k here we come!

Certain things do go out of favor Did I say they are giving them away already, right now? No, but if you have watched prices, there has been a clear and consistent downtrend for the last 10-15 years. This will only continue as people who like the '57 Chevy increasingly die off. This is not a hard concept to grasp. And it's not a new idea. Generations come and go.

How long do you have to wait for demand to disappear? Until you are dead. Get it? You represent a data point of someone who is very interested in the 911E. You are not alone. But, once you (along with your entire cohort) are dead, the demand for 911E will evaporate, just like your scattered ashes. You are the demand, so you don't get to be exempt from the very forces that create the market dynamic in the first place. You will never get a 911E for dirt cheap, but your kids might, by definition.

Look at the collector guitar market. The new generation does not even identify guitars as cool. Guitars are for old dads. Dads are not cool. DJ mixing tables are the new cool. As guitar people slowly age out, the price has been on a decline for many years. The Millennials will not be propping up the vintage guitar market when they hit peak earnings years. Before electric guitars, accordions were a very popular instrument early in the last century. Guess what vintage accordion demand looks like now compared to the peak? Limited production numbers? LOL, doesn't matter when you can't even give one away.

Anyone is welcome to call me an idiot. Not everyone can grasp that nostalgia demand is a sliding window. Think bigger. Short term blips are natural variation ebbs and flows. Longer term, history will prove you wrong. They can continue thinking the Millennials will really ramp up the demand for the Duesenberg market once they hit their prime earning years.

So, you go right on thinking that your PORSCHE can only forever go up in price forever because demand will forever rise since nursing homes will soon have track days. Oddly, anyone who has said this about their '67 Camaro is clearly a fool, yet "this time it's different" when it comes to your particular car. Yes, it is !!

Ever hear of Elvis?
Or the Elvis museum in Vegas?
Guess what, people who now go to Vegas have no idea who Elvis is.
No one cares.
Yea, Elvis museum IN VEGAS recently closed. Forever.
Make room for the new nostalgia.

Take a guess why almost every auto museum in the country is a money losing disaster.
B/c they are not air cooled museums that will rise to new levels and beyond

Guess what they said about Model T's in the 1950s ?
Today, you can't give one away.
That's b/c everyone is saving for the 911, which can only go UP UP UP

15mm Model T's built, yet it's easier to find a 911 for sale. Why is that? The bottom line is that, at some point, all the people who like these cars will ALL be dead, on the proper timeline. The are all destined for the scrap heap. Not if, but when. 50 year, 100 years, that's just details.

Production numbers don't mean squat when demand evaporates.
And guess what? 10,000 years from now, no one will want your rare 911.

There are many rare stamps and coins with VERY low production numbers.
Guess what? They are worthless now. No one wants them. Demand collapsed.

Hummels used to be worth a lot of money.
Guess what? They are worthless now. No one wants them. Demand collapsed.

So yea, every one of our cars is heading to its scrap value.
But not before hitting $1mm very soon !

In our lifetimes, we've already seen demand decline for the model T, the '32 Ford, the '57 Chevy T,... and the latest segment, the 60s muscle car, as the cruise night cohort slowly migrates to nursing homes.

Slowly, and within your lifetime, you will see demand diminish as generations die off. For the slow to understand, I used 10,000 years to emphasize the point. Demand will go down, not up, if you look at the right scale.

Eventually... You won't be able to give your "57 Chevy" away. Drive on!

[ficke]

Reality is between the extremes. with the price of these cars, politics, climate change, everything.
The world is not black and white and the nut jobs on the fringe or nut jobs on the fringe.
Bubbles burst or they will go up forever, Left or right. nut jobs.
O hi1 Suger

[ficke]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59K2kF6o9Tk

[Vaive]

I think we can all agree on one thing, posters here drink a lot. Like a lot lot.

[wayner]

One thing worth noting is that a 1960s mustang came from an era when a brand manager would have lost his job if a model sold less than 1 million cars in a single year. There are a ton of mustangs out there.

Meanwhile Porsche production numbers looked something like this (1972 reference)

1972 T Coupe 1963
1972 T Targa 1523
1972 T(US) Coupe 2931
1972 T(US) Targa 1821
1972 E Coupe 1124
1972 E Targa 861
1972 S Coupe 1750 (!)
1972 S Targa 989

Source: Original Porsche 911, by Peter Morgan.

As for the Ford Model T, there were something like 15 million built.

Ferrari built only 36 of the 250 GTOs

In 1969 there were almost 40,000 corvettes built, but only roughly 10,000 in 1961
Source https://www.corvsport.com/corvette-sales-volume-year/

I'd like to say that the 1969 corvette is the better car, but the 1959 is more sought after, but I don't know that for sure, its just my assertion.

[Macroni]

Originally Posted by Vaive

But how can this be? These cars are visceral. I say visceral people!!!!! Like all bubbles eventually do, this one has deflated.

Honestly..... what a constant bore.... If you are so insightful why are you not speculating on some type of market in which real money can be made?

These are hobby cars.

The people that speak of the experience get it.... the ones concerned with value are predominatly in over their head. Deal with it and enjoy the visceral experience you paid for........

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by Macroni

Honestly..... what a constant bore.... If you are so insightful why are you not speculating on some type of market in which real money can be made?

These are hobby cars.

The people that speak of the experience get it.... the ones concerned with value are predominatly in over their head. Deal with it and enjoy the visceral experience you paid for........

He’s a house flipper.

[NYNick]

Pass the pipe Sugardope. You've overdosed.

[nduong13]

There is SOME truth to what Sugar is saying.

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by nduong13

There is SOME truth to what Sugar is saying.

Even a blind squirrel occasionally gets a nut.

[matt930s]

Shill...

Originally Posted by nduong13

There is SOME truth to what Sugar is saying.

[specialtyoneinc]

Originally Posted by nduong13

There is SOME truth to what Sugar is saying.

All right Trumpster

[wayner]

Just wait until Drake shows up driving a vintage 911!


<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/a3w8I8boc_I" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

https://youtu.be/a3w8I8boc_I

[sm70911]

[QUOTE=wayner;10654890]Just wait until Drake shows up driving a vintage 911!

Based on the reaction to Drake at Camp Flog Gnaw this weekend, if he shows up driving a classic 911 prices will drop back to pre 2012 levels.

[nduong13]

Originally Posted by specialtyoneinc

All right Trumpster

SMH....Damn. Did I offend you?