The dream car of the future collectors: 911 vs. 308

[Fairview]

I have been quite surprised that the younger generation is quite interested in my 911. There have been more inquiries and positive comments about my 911 in two months than most other vintage cars I’ve had over the years, including a Ferrari 308.

They are the future caretakers (prospective purchasers as well as our heirs) of our hobby and cars, so it is interesting to me to see how they respond.

Do you think our 911s generate enough interest in the young crowd to encourage them to carry the torch?

[Alfasrule]

Don't know much about Porsche's, but ALFA Romeo's seem to be having a resurgence. The prices and the time they are posted for sale, and they're gone. The Old ones. Maybe it's the fact that these newer cars will not last as long as a Vintage Car and newer cars are NOT collectible. With over 300 micro processors in these newest "Collectible" CarZ. They would not last as long. Micro processors have a lifetime of 10 years. Even the 80's cars with Bosch injection(NO Micro Processors) the unit used in both our models is bullet proof(I never lost one). I own ALFA Romeos that use a $5.00 set of points to function. The youngins realize this I hope.

[991gts6s]

65 thru 98 yeah all ages love the 911...

[sugarwood]

Careful.

I presented the following logic a while back, and some fools here mentally imploded
They sadly think there is permanent demand for "my precious"... Delusion.

I will paste some of my favorite snippets:

Give it time.
Guess what they said about Model T's in the 1950s ?
Today, you can't give one away.

Has nothing to do with production numbers or utility.
15mm T's built, yet it's easier to find a 911 for sale. Why is that?
The bottom line is that, at some point, all the people who like these cars will ALL be dead, on the proper timeline.
The are all destined for the scrap heap. Not if, but when. 50 year, 100 years, that's just details.

Production numbers don't mean squat when demand evaporates.
There are many rare stamps and coins with VERY low production numbers.
Guess what? They are worthless now. No one wants them. Demand collapsed.
Hummels used to be worth a lot of money.
Guess what? They are worthless now. No one wants them. Demand collapsed.

So yea, every one of our cars is heading to its scrap value.
Think bigger.

Timeline illustrates the logical refutation of facile assertions that "these items can only rise in value because of low production numbers and practical utility".

In our lifetimes, we've already seen demand decline for the model T, the '32 Ford, the '57 Chevy T
... and the latest segment, the 60s muscle car, as the cruise night cohort slowly migrates to nursing homes.

Slowly, and within your lifetime, you will see demand diminish as generations die off.
Eventually... You won't be able to give your "57 Chevy" away. Drive on!

Still don't get it?

Ever hear of Elvis?
Or the Elvis museum in Vegas?
Guess what, people who now go to Vegas have no idea who Elvis is.
No one cares.
Yea, Elvis museum IN VEGAS recently closed. Forever.
Make room for the new nostalgia.

Take a guess why almost every auto museum in the country is a money losing disaster.

So, you go right on thinking that your PORSCHE can only forever go up in price forever because demand will forever rise since nursing homes will soon have track days.
Oddly, anyone who has said this about their '67 Camaro is clearly a fool, yet "this time it's different" when it comes to your particular 911.

57 Chevy? If you have watched prices, there has been a clear and consistent downtrend for the last 10-15 years.
This will only continue as people who like the '57 Chevy increasingly die off. This is not a hard concept to grasp. And it's not a new idea. Generations come and go.

How long do you have to wait for demand to disappear? Until you are dead. Get it? You represent a data point of someone who is very interested in the 911E. You are not alone. But, once you (along with your entire cohort) are dead, the demand for 911E will evaporate, just like your scattered ashes. You are the demand, so you don't get to be exempt from the very forces that create the market dynamic in the first place. You will never get a 911E for dirt cheap, but your kids might, by definition.

Still don't get it?

Look at the collector guitar market. The new generation does not even identify guitars as cool. Guitars are for old dads. Dads are not cool. DJ mixing tables are the new cool. As guitar people slowly age out, the price has been on a decline for many years. The Millennials will not be propping up the vintage guitar market when they hit peak earnings years. Before electric guitars, accordions were a very popular instrument early in the last century. Guess what vintage accordion demand looks like now compared to the peak? Limited production numbers? LOL, doesn't matter when you can't even give one away.

Not everyone can grasp that nostalgia demand is a sliding window. Think bigger. Short term blips are natural variation ebbs and flows. Longer term, history will prove you wrong. They can continue thinking the Millennials will really ramp up the demand for the Duesenberg market once they hit their prime earning years.

Most 20s car guys are into hot hatch GTI/Golf, Evo, WRX, GM muscle, and truck culture.
Many others simply drive F-150's, Elantra, Focus, Civic, etc.
The freak outlier 20s kid who is into 993 does not mean much of anything.

Still don't get it?

Things evolve.
Apple sold more watches than the entire Swiss watch industry in 2017.
And smart watches are still in their nascent stages of evolution.

Kids don't think grandpa's Rolex is cool.
Nothing about grandpa is cool.
One steampunk outlier misfit does not a trend make.

Mechanical watches are another dying industry.
But, you're certainly entitled to your opinion.

Demand for generational nostalgia items decreases over time.
I am correct. When your generation dies off, the production numbers will mean squat.
Model T, '32 Ford, '57 Chevy, Tubbed '67 Camaro......all dwindling demand over decades.

Just remember there will be ZERO demand for your car once your generation is dead.
I drive my 911 a few times a week.
Drive 'em while you got 'em.

Still don't get it?

In the end, when your generation is 100% dead, demand will be much lower than it was when you were alive. Won't matter how great the car was.
Victorian furniture is infinitely higher quality than the disposable garbage sold at Bob's Discount. However, demand has evaporated for 17th & 18th century antiques.

Your generation will not die simultaneously from a large asteroid.
You will die off, slowly, one at a time. Drop by drop.
So, why is it relevant to the topic at hand?
The long term trend can manifest into the short term.

And, rest assured, the long term trend is that fewer and fewer people are lusting after a 1946 Ford Super Deluxe Coupe.
By now, they are all dead or dying. Buyers evaporate, inventory sits longer, and eventually prices reflect that.

And before the court jester says,
"But....but....but....what that gotta do with PORSCH"

A) The cycle never stops. Nothing is immune to time.
B) This is too complicated for you. Find a new discussion.

Still don't get it?
Generations move on....

https://www.hagerty.com/articles-videos/articles/2018/10/17/why-are-these-desirable-collector-cars-cooling-down

“With the Shelbys, GTO, and Challenger, it looks like values are generally tracking pretty flat, but buyer interest (which we track via quote activity) is way down for all of them,” he notes. “The number being added to insurance policies is down, and auction results have been pretty weak.” While their value is holding strong, there just aren’t a lot of new buyers entering that market.
“A lot of the '40s, '50s and early '60s domestics go along with something we've been seeing generally, that lots of '40s and '50s cars primarily appeal to buyers who are quite a bit older. Younger enthusiasts aren't taking up the mantle, so demand is shrinking. This definitely seems to be the case with the bottom spot, the Stylemaster. Values dropped quite a bit recently, and buyers don't seem to be interested in them.”
The lesson is that younger car buyers aren’t “taking up the mantle” on the older cars

[sugarwood]

Some comments are spot on.

Hagerty has it partly right on why demand is going down. The latest generation of car buyers do not want old cars no matter how cool they might be. The old guys like us are at the point of thinning the collection. The younger buyers want newer cars.

I believe the reason older cars don’t have as much action is twofold. First is it true that people like the cars from their youth. So the buyers today went cars from the 70s 80s or 90s not the 30s 40s 50s and 60s.

This article reminds me of the late 80’s, when pre-WW2 cars took a price tumble. The WW2 generation started to die off, or sell as they got older. Widows were shocked at the auctions, that their husbands cars weren’t worth what their husbands had told them. Prices plummeted, with the possible exception of the top tier coach-built cars

Two, a slow barely perceptual change in generations who are moving the hobby towards the cars they are interested in. My 35 year old nephew a classic example. One day, and it will come, no one will care about a 1972 Porsche 911. Well, maybe a dozen might as tech is spoiling new drivers.
Recently had a mid-80s year old gentleman walk up to me while my cars were outside for washing. He told me mostly about when he was into cars and it was late '30s hotrods. How many are still interested in them and I don’t mean one or two people. I mean hundreds, if not thousands, who could move a market. The answer is obvious.

The target age group for most of these to be nostalgic or tied to is beginning to age out and die off for lack of a better word. Sure the market will carry on for years to come but there will continue to be fewer and fewer people from that timeline. Much like fat fendered street rods of the 80s were hot before them but have since lost their audience


Half of the people that were interested in these cars are already dead. The other half are already well into their 50s. Next time your at a car show or auction look around, you will not see any young people. Every one is 50 plus years old. My prediction is that in 20 years you won’t be able to give most classic or muscle cars away

About ten years ago my wife and I were going out for Sunday breakfast in our 1969 Corvette 427/390hp, numbers matching, M21 4 speed coupe and I opined that these cars would go the way of the Model A once the guys who had drooled over them in their youth had passed away. Then I thought for a minute and said “Why should I care? I’ll be dead.” You’ve gotta take the long term view.

That follows the trend that Hagerty valuation specialist Andrew Newton pointed out several months ago: younger buyers are opting for newer, more affordable collector cars, leaving classic muscle and sports cars with fewer new buyers in the market. The trend of ‘40s and ‘50s cars losing popularity also continues, with the 1946-1948 Chevy Stylemaster and its contemporary Ford counterpart, the Deluxe, tied for the second-lowest score on the list.

https://www.hagerty.com/articles-videos/articles/2018/12/04/muscle-cars-arent-gaining-collector-car-market?



Next gen doesn't care.

GENEVA—You’re 25 years old, basking in the glow of your first big job promotion and a hefty raise. Why not splurge on a big-ticket item?

Your father might have bought a fancy Swiss watch. But the thought doesn’t occur to you—for most of your life, you’ve used your cellphone to check the time. Instead, you book a getaway to Costa Rica, which you document extensively on Instagram.

Swiss watchmaking executive Jean-Claude Biver wants to change that thinking. From his perch at luxury conglomerate LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, the 68-year-old has seen younger generations drift away from his centuries-old industry. He is on a mission to get them interested in watches, before it’s too late.

“It’s the first time we have young people not buying watches,” says Mr. Biver, who leads LVMH’s watch division. “Time is everywhere. Why should these kids buy something for the wrists that tells them the same thing they get everywhere?”

Executives across Switzerland’s watch industry have been wrestling with the same question. How can they convince young consumers that mechanical timepieces are relevant—let alone worth the price of a car? At the same time, the tradition-bound manufacturers are fending off Apple Inc. and other tech companies that are disrupting the market with wrist gadgets that track your workouts and organize your social life.

The perils facing the Swiss industry have been laid bare by a sharp downturn starting in 2015

The decline has led watchmakers to lay off hundreds of workers and buy back thousands of expensive, unsold watches, prying off their jewels and melting down their metal components.

“It’s not only a crisis,” says Antonio Calce, chief executive of Girard Perregaux, a watchmaker based in La Chaux-de-Fonds, Switzerland. “We must rethink the existing business model.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-time-running-out-for-the-swiss-watch-industry-1520867714

[Unobtanium-inc]

My brother has a 74 Ferrari and an 87 Carrera. The Ferrari he spends about $8000-1000 a year in maintenance, the 911 he puts gas in and drives it. Ferrari's are a different world than the Porsche world.

---Adam

[NYNick]

Make up your mind S'man. You're either pro or con 911's increasing in value. Looks like you still own one though.

Quite honestly, they've gone up considerably since you started that old thread, and still are. They've done well for the last 5 years, although I'd never condone owning one as an investment.

And don't compare them to other investments. They're not. They're just cars. If you can break even on a car, you're doing well. If you make money while enjoying it, BONUS!

[faapgar]

Your comments are entertaining and at the same time slightly abrasive but do not let a lack of intelligence discourage you from future comments.Everyones opininion matters here.Keep posting.I enjoy your parlay.Ciao Fred

[Fairview]

Sugar’s comments are thought provoking, for sure. The love of the 911 series will eventually wane and just as they have shot up in value, they will plateau and one day decline.

But my hope is that the 911 will ride the wave longer than most. The 911 has been built for so long, multiple generations have desired them. Also, even the earliest 911 is still relevant as transportation so can be used on today’s highways. Better than that, a good 911 gives a driving experience that is uniquely engaging.

The 911 is the ultimate fulfillment of Ferdinand Porsche’s KDF-wagon’s motto of “Strength through Joy”. Let’s hope there will long be a market for the joy a 911 can bring.

[nathanbs]

Originally Posted by Fairview

Sugar’s comments are thought provoking, for sure. The love of the 911 series will eventually wane and just as they have shot up in value, they will plateau and one day decline.

But my hope is that the 911 will ride the wave longer than most. The 911 has been built for so long, multiple generations have desired them. Also, even the earliest 911 is still relevant as transportation so can be used on today’s highways. Better than that, a good 911 gives a driving experience that is uniquely engaging.

The 911 is the ultimate fulfillment of Ferdinand Porsche’s KDF-wagon’s motto of “Strength through Joy”. Let’s hope there will long be a market for the joy a 911 can bring.

As 356s are still appreciating when can one expect a 911 to decline? 40 years?

[juanbenae]

Originally Posted by Fairview

Sugar’s comments are thought provoking, for sure.

i guess many of us will have to simply take your word for it.

[Glenfield]

Cars are utility (with all the visceral excitement that analog experience brings), art/design or investment. At various times, they can be all three. There is no question that in most of our lifetimes, that calculus will change. Most will diminish in utility. Can’t daily them and fewer will have the means to weekend them (the bucolic life with hints of gasoline). Outside of the marquees, will the next generations own them for art or investment? Big if ... don’t have kids yet but the nieces and nephews aren’t counting tailpipes and falling over themselves when they count a four popper!

Porsche may be a little different to some of the examples offered above. I expect it will fare far better. It is a masterclass in evergreening brand equity. Helps to have a very clear design language and pedigree that speaks to a global marketplace. The present is nourished by the nostalgia of the past and vice-versa.

All that said, I now question the sense in keeping my car stock. I may bet on utility since I know it won’t be valuable as art or investment. That’s perfectly fine by me. It’s going to be the perfect antidote to an increasingly automated/disconnected future.

[ChrisF1]

Anyone buying cars as a monetary investment, is doin' it wrong (in most cases). There are many better assets to sink your money into to appreciate. The value of a Porsche is driving pleasure, experience; the brand and the people that go with it. If the car happens to appreciate or lose less money than planned - then minor win there too.

Yes, we will all die off and there may be no one to buy the vessels of our lives great experiences. Who gives a ****. Enjoy your life; buy things that bring you pleasure; do epic **** with them. Rinse lather repeat.

[manbridge 74]

As I watch my peers become increasingly incapacitated by choices made in their youth I, for one, can’t wait till some of the cars and other artifacts I liked in my youth become available. Despite the doom and gloom preached by triggered Karen’s, it hasn’t happened yet. See Alfa example above, etc.

So who cares what happens after we are gone? Especially if you have no faith in the after life. None of the petulant whining will manner, not a whit.

[Cobalt]

People will spend money on anything. I purchased a 1:10 scale Ford GT40 model and left it in it's original box for 8 years. I spent $700 for it shipped and recently sold it to young guy for $6k. I didn't buy it as an investment but because I liked it and am into these things but never had a place to properly display it.

I disagree on the next gen not caring. Maybe the masses but there are still many that do and I see more and more beginning to understand the lure of nostalgia. My 22 year old son and all of his friends would kill for an air-cooled. Some are saving up for one now. He works on many exotics and lots of Porsche's but finally had the chance to drive my turbo the other day. He was in awe of the car and its old school charm and monster power delivery. Unlike any of the newer cars he drives and says are all S&!^ boxes and wouldn't give you a penny for a Lambo Perfomonte or any newer car. Especially when you peel the skin back and see how poorly made they are. He drives a 981 tuned cayman S but would take the turbo hands down for so many reasons despite the cayman's ease to drive and track performance.

He could care less about the cars shortcomings but after his drive said he couldn't imagine how anyone couldn't get a thrill out of driving one and everyone should have a chance to understand what a great experience it is. I think there is a glimmer of hope and with 80 million new souls in the US since I was his age I think a few will continue to like the 200 or so remaining turbo 3.6's in the US. I have no doubt they will be of interest to many for the rest of my lifetime and possibly his as well.

[NYNick]

...and we all get sucked down the S-hole again....

[sugarwood]

Did you sell an Exoto for $6k? How did you find this buyer?

Recent Mecum sold for $3500
https://www.mecum.com/lots/RM0520-433981/1966-exoto-ford-gt40-model-110-scale-car/

[sugarwood]

What are examples of the Lambo Perfomonte being so poorly made?

[1979-930]

They will both be desirable for many years. But to different people.

For me the 911 is more approachable.
There seems to be more of them available in every color of the rainbow. (I don't care to know actual production numbers of each) Seeing them out driving gets people interested in them. I can't tell you the last time I saw a 308 driving around.
The price for entry is less and working on them seems to be less of a challenge; Mechanically and financially. (But I have not been around a Ferrari or worked on one.)
I'm less worried about Porsche or an aftermarket company continuing to provide parts long term. A 308 scares me in this respect. What's the parts demand on a low production and rarely driven car now or in another 10 or 20 years?

IMO When it comes to sales prices the Ferrari will always be the car for the elite and cost more in every way. I don't think our little 911 will be more valuable. But it will always be more enjoyable to own and drive.

[MAH77]

Originally Posted by faapgar

Your comments are entertaining and at the same time slightly abrasive but do not let a lack of intelligence discourage you from future comments.Everyones opininion matters here.Keep posting.I enjoy your parlay.Ciao Fred

Holy cow Fred, talk about a subtle stick in the eye, I had no idea you were so savage.