Is it just me or is the market finally dropping?

[Jim Richards]

Originally Posted by Danny_Ocean

Unless you're a flipper, it's a moot issue.

Now you understand.

[car-reras]

Originally Posted by Jim Richards

Now you understand.

For me, it was merely and observation. For those that bought at the height of the market, sorry to have touched an obvious nerve. Not sure why else you would make the comments you did otherwise, as it's obvious many of us are interested in current market values...I do agree with putting a value on the enjoyment factor (although not the topic here), I must admit, I don't enjoy the primary function of my 911's near enough! Peace.

[blau911]

Originally Posted by GothingNC

Local shop just sold a 95 993 with 75k miles for 19k.
Silver/Black in really nice shape.

Sold by word of mouth.

That's a great deal if it's for real. Was the $19k car a tip or did it have gray interior? That will usually hurt resale price. The lowest I have seen a good clean 95' 993 coupe with low miles is $23k....

[Macroni]

This discussion will never end........... if you have exceptional you will get exceptional.... if not you will get whatever the market will bear based upon supply and demand. Apply this to anything.

Perspective........

There are a number of industries that are having record years and investing heavily.

Unemployment is 10%; what are the other 90% doing? Historic unemployment is between 5% & 6%.

Spending has not stopped dead. Auto and houses got whacked and capacity (supply) needs to adjust. It will. Capitalism is cyclical.


Will tune into this discussion next week when a similar thread is started.

[Christien]

Originally Posted by Danny_Ocean

How much longer are you going to wait to buy the car you've been looking for? We ain't getting any younger.

This is an interesting point - what's the value of every day that passes WITHOUT the car you've always/will always want? If you buy today at $2000 too high vs. waiting another year and buying right on value, then you've gone one more year in your like Porsche-less. Is $2000 worth an extra year of enjoyment? Maybe. If you live another 60 years, not so much. But if you've only got 18 months left on the clock...

[GothingNC]

Originally Posted by blau911

That's a great deal if it's for real. Was the $19k car a tip or did it have gray interior? That will usually hurt resale price. The lowest I have seen a good clean 95' 993 coupe with low miles is $23k....

It was not a tiptronic and had a black interior.

95 993 coupe for 20K at a dealership

http://www.autotrader.com/fyc/vdp.jsp?ct=u&car_id=285819670&dealer_id=56131968&c ar_year=1995&rdm=1283705232695&lastStartYear=1981& model=911&num_records=25&systime=&make2=&highlight FirstMakeModel=&start_year=1995&keywordsfyc=&keywo rdsrep=&engine=&certified=&body_code=0&fuel=&awsp= false&search_type=both&distance=0&marketZipError=f alse&search_lang=en&sownerid=614521&showZipError=y &make=POR&keywords_display=&color=&page_location=f indacar%3A%3Aispsearchform&min_price=500&drive=&de fault_sort=newsortbyprice_DESC&seller_type=b&max_m ileage=&style_flag=1&sort_type=priceDESC&address=2 7616&advanced=&end_year=1998&doors=&transmission=& max_price=25000&cardist=1334&standard=false

[blau911]

Originally Posted by GothingNC

It was not a tiptronic and had a black interior.

95 993 coupe for 20K at a dealership

Cars for Sale: 1995 Porsche 911 Carrera Coupe in Lubbock, TX 79424: Coupe Details - 285819670 - AutoTrader.com

This car is a little different. It has almost 100k miles - i.e. + 30k more miles...

[DDDD]

Originally Posted by Macroni

This discussion will never end........... if you have exceptional you will get exceptional.... if not you will get whatever the market will bear based upon supply and demand. Apply this to anything.

Perspective........

There are a number of industries that are having record years and investing heavily.

Unemployment is 10%; what are the other 90% doing? Historic unemployment is between 5% & 6%.

Spending has not stopped dead. Auto and houses got whacked and capacity (supply) needs to adjust. It will. Capitalism is cyclical.


Will tune into this discussion next week when a similar thread is started.

Actual payroll figures show that around 56% of the population is employeed, regardless of what initial claims rate they want to display in the media.

Spending has not stopped because some people are doing just fine, however spending is going to remain extremely uneven for years.

People that talk about the markets being cyclical often overlook that the other end of the cycle can last as long as the bubble end. Usually people use the cyclical phrasing to imply some kind of rapid bounce back instead of a true downcycle phase.

[car-reras]

Originally Posted by DDDD

Actual payroll figures show that around 56% of the population is employeed, regardless of what initial claims rate they want to display in the media.

Spending has not stopped because some people are doing just fine, however spending is going to remain extremely uneven for years.

People that talk about the markets being cyclical often overlook that the other end of the cycle can last as long as the bubble end. Usually people use the cyclical phrasing to imply some kind of rapid bounce back instead of a true downcycle phase.

Bravo! Now this is the discussion I had hoped to enter into,...not whether or not the discussion mattered.

[Matt Monson]

As some of you likely know, I own a company that manufacturers parts for Porsches, very expensive 100% discretionary motorsports parts for Porsches. The end of 2009 it was like someone had turned off the power in the place. The phones didn't ring. The email inbox was empty. Sales were nearly 50% of the previous year for the same period and I was chasing them hard. I was making a lot of outgoing calls to shops to try to get sales leads.

January 1, 2010 it was like someone found the plug and put it back in the wall. We were running full tilt with sales at 100% of what they had been in 2008. The phones are ringing and the inbox is full. I usually don't have time to make outgoing calls beyond returning the calls that have come in while I was on the other line or after hours. Sales have stayed that way with only a dip right around tax time in April. Otherwise my business is running like there's no recession.

Maybe the market for Sunday driving take it on a canyon run cars is totally different than my market. I know that I am seeing what appears to be a larger number than usual racecars for sale at what I think are really good prices. But what I do know is that the racers are opening up their pocketbooks and buying our parts business as usual. And the shops that I sell to, who are often a split of race and regular service work, are telling me that people are starting to pay for service work again. My regulars update me on fairly consistent intervals and a lot of them are telling me it's picked up for them. People are driving their cars and getting work done on them.

In tough financial times there are always going to be people who have to dump luxury items (which a Porsche obviously is) to make ends meet. I guess the question is whether or not there's enough of those desperate people to pull the whole market down to a new average pricepoint. My gutt on the matter is there are not. There's some really good deals out there, but I don't think the price of good or above early cars has moved one bit down.

[bwall]

Matt

Great post! I feel as if we are all below deck in a big ship and can only see out of our own porthole. Thus, the view is pretty limited even if it is pretty intense.

Thanks for giving us a glimpse through your window.

[Matt Monson]

You're welcome and that's a great way to describe it. I couldn't tell you a thing about the state of the 356 market. My porthole pretty firmly looks out over IB 911's,993,996,GT3, and TT's. I can see the early car and Cup Car market on my horizon on either side, but can't completely view it. And even then it's mostly racecars and hot rods. Stock, low mileage, original owner. Those are words that are somewhat foreign to me.

[911speedin]

I also have been following the prices in the last 2 years (as I just bought my first Pcar a few months ago -'86 w. 47k miles) and agree that it does seem like that the prices are on their way down. Last year people were selling SC's w.~100k miles for $14-16k.. these days even $11-12k seems like a hard sell.

[Macroni]

Originally Posted by DDDD

Actual payroll figures show that around 56% of the population is employed, regardless of what initial claims rate they want to display in the media.

Spending has not stopped because some people are doing just fine, however spending is going to remain extremely uneven for years.

People that talk about the markets being cyclical often overlook that the other end of the cycle can last as long as the bubble end. Usually people use the cyclical phrasing to imply some kind of rapid bounce back instead of a true down cycle phase.

Yes, the actual working population (100%) is between 50 and 60% of the total population. This does not include independent contractors and illegal aliens; another estimated 5 to 10%.

If we use 2007 as a base line year; unemployment has increased between 5 & 6%. 2007 also represents a high water point for long hood values.

The economy is growing slowly, 2nd quarter 2010 GDP is 1.6%. This is down from norm of 3% to 5% but still a positive number. It also has been noted that savings has also increased slightly. These numbers point to a slow recovery not a rapid bounce back.

Matt's comments point to a shift in confidence which IMO is critical to the recovery. The uncomfortable aspect for me is the need to go back to our leverage mentality to provide the type of growth that will add the needed stimulus.

[bwall]

"The uncomfortable aspect for me is the need to go back to our leverage mentality to provide the type of growth that will add the needed stimulus."

Well put. That was like musical chairs. The music stopped in Sept. 2008 for me and a lot sooner for others. It's much healthier for the economy to grow based on sustainable demand and not because of cheap credit which needs to be paid back someday which is 'now'.

[ArcticOne]

Originally Posted by 911speedin

I also have been following the prices in the last 2 years (as I just bought my first Pcar a few months ago -'86 w. 47k miles) and agree that it does seem like that the prices are on their way down. Last year people were selling SC's w.~100k miles for $14-16k.. these days even $11-12k seems like a hard sell.

From my perspective I do not see $3000 or so as being reflective of a downturn in price. There are many factors determining the range and for me a variation of even $3000 on a $ 15K car would put it in to the asking / selling range. %% it is a rather large amount, but in $$ it is not.

That being said, I am finalizing the purchase on a 1980 SC. Price is higher than what I could have purchased others for, but it was relatively local, felt great and it was still within my budget.

What I have noticed tho is that the mid 80's 911's seem to be higher now than they were a couple of years ago. Could be my limited exposure / research, but asking prices on them seem a tad higher.

It is also interesting to compare the black / blue / Kelly book values for the 911's and see the large discrepancy between those values and asking prices. P cars may not be best judged by book value, but something is off when an average 911 is booked at $20K and most are being offered in the $30 K range.

jb

[Macroni]

I do not know if we can treat a 911 as a commodity. Each car is unique and despite our view of there being a bountiful supply there really is a limited supply which is not growing.

IMO, the economy cooled the market by reducing the available financing. This reduced the pool of buyers (demand) increased availability (supply). The marketplace compensated to balance the equation; boring and basic economics.

[POFERR]

HI ALL
U CAN ALSO TELL FROM THIS BOARD....MOST GUYS R GETTING OUT OF THEIR CARS

.....MAYBE ....JUST NEED THE $$ CASH BACK........JUST SELLING..... NOT REPLACING

J

[WANNA930]

You see cars and parts that would have sold in hours lingering for days if not weeks. The cars especially hurt are project cars and the mid level and lower level buys. The upper end cars are still bringing good money as that sector still is buying as they see bargain city.

On another note the I am better than everybody and will write a one line "My 911 Is For Sale" ads are still in full effect and then guys wonder why they don't sell. Maybe the downturn might actually force them to write maybe 2 lines of info. Next year maybe a picture.

[techweenie]

I see longhoods bringing strong money if they have a good chassis foundation. The 3.0 and 3.2 cars are weak, and 964s are dead in the water. But it's not just the uncertain economy, it's also a normal depreciation cycle as the cars get older. Some -- only some -- Porsches will move into the appreciation curve. And you really can't second-guess it.

I know that in the late '70s, early '80s, my peers used to talk about 914-6s being "the Speedster of the 80s. Well, that never happened. A popular buying guide author referred to the '72 911 as the 'worst of the worst' and now they bring a premium over '71s and '73s. A couple years ago, the '74-77 narrow bodies were unloved, and now Europe can't get its fill. There was a phantom wave of high prices on '74-75 Carreras that faded fast.

I broker Porsches all over the world on a hobby basis, and while Porsches aren't commodities, they sometimes trade like OJ and pork bellies. Up and down with no clear reason why.

Find me a good '72 S, coupe or Targa, and I have buyers ready to go at record prices. Hot rodded longhoods are strong as well. Good, clean mid-range 2.2 and 2.4 coupes... I have buyers.