996 values - IMS priced in

[mpetry]

Often when a stock is undervalued, commentators will say that business concerns (litigation, taxes, etc) are "priced in" to the current low value.

A fellow Islander is offering a beautiful 996 coupe for about the same as my current (very good) SC is "worth" at current market.



My question is - how much of the corrective maintenance required on the 996 is "priced in" to the current low market value ?

Should I buy the car (my favorite metallic red w/sub 50K) and do the $12K major service (clutch, waterpump, IMS, belt, and all fluids) and then sell the one I like less ?

Going back and forth

[techweenie]

If I were you, I'd decide before spending thousands on the 996. You will not recover a fraction of a $12K service. In some cases, there could be buyers willing to pay an extra $2K for the IMS change.

Not sure I would. The factory put hundreds of thousands of miles of testing into the IMS they built. The aftermarket IMS is unproven and AFAIK has a greater failure rate.

I'd recommend considering putting the big bucks you're considering for service into an extended warranty.

[mpetry]

Hmm. Interesting thought. What do you think is the failure rate for IMS bearings in this model? Worse, "soft" failure which streams particles of the bearing thru the oil galleries ?

Percentages ? I don't know of any resources that show solid data based on significant sample size. For sure the manufacturer would never release such data, but I wish I had access to it.

a crapshoot

[johnvan8]

You didn't say what year 996. From what I understand, 99-01 cars had a higher failure rate but the IMS is easy to change. 02-on had an improved (by the factory) IMS but you can't change it without opening the motor ($$$). BTW, $12k sounds kinda high for the work you described, especially if it's a sub 50k car with no major current issues. And while the engine is out, don't forget the AOS as well.

[timchar]

Look for one that has already had the work done and documented. They are out there. Good luck. Tim

[carjmark]

Couple thoughts. What's the price? You say worth what your SC is, but that's a whole other subjective issue. I don't believe majority of 996 buyers are even aware of IMS issue (excluding board readers ) so to the average guy an IMS upgrade is worth nothing (although I would pay +1K and do believe it's necessary insurance).

Porsche has never made failure rates public so it's a WAG; IMS upgrade is available for M96 motors until changeover to M97 or "S" cars mostly during 2005 without splitting case. Also the $12K service number sounds way high. I would think you could do clutch, RMS, IMS upgrade, w/pump, belt, etc. for under $4K.

Obvious last comment is to have PPI by guy who knows 996 to avoid expensive surprises, needed service items and all the complexity inherent in 996 versus SC, Very different cars, good luck.

[Cannonball996]

$12k seems insanely high for service. I buy and sell a lot of porsches, I do not think the IMS plays a factor in the value or the price. IMS failure is also less common then the internet would lead you to believe. I do highly recommend getting the IMS up graded.

[SilberUrS6]

Your beautiful blue SC is on the upside in the market. Regular 996 cars are still on the downside.

In my mind, your SC is worth more than any regular 996, no matter the condition of the IMS. Not because I have any particular problems with watercooled cars or the 996 in general, but because the way the market is trending now. It appears as though the SC cars are starting to pick up value, and not any kind of slow pick-up. The value increase seems to be pretty large in the past year. I think that as long as the economy continues its slow rebound, the SC cars will continue to increase in value. I also think that 996 cars will continue to slide. I see a time in the near future when an X51 996TT will trade straight across for an SC. *That* is a trade I would make.

[whiterabbit]

Its the SC that is undervalued not the 996. Don't do the deal.

[mpetry]

thanks for all this good info ! Very much appreciate the exchange of opinions.

[dtw]

What year is the red 996? I'm looking for an 02-04 that needs work, this could work for me.

[917L]

Originally Posted by SilberUrS6

Regular 996 cars are still on the downside.

This.

The market hasn't been friendly towards any of the 996-series cars--regardless of the potential problems with the IMS. Consider the devaluation of 996 GT3s, Turbos, and GT2s--cars which aren't identified with IMS issues: the continuation of declining values for 996s of all sorts is likely.

[Wiese]

I have corresponded with the seller. It's a 1999 with 48,500 miles.

It looks clean, but a PPI could reveal unknown issues. Carfax is clean, but some paint work and glasswork have been performed according to seller. Also, the seller told me that the radio needs to be replaced. From the pics he sent me, it looks like the passenger seat is a bit stained and the tires look like the have little thread left (but it's hard to tell from pics).

I had offered the seller edmunds.com private party resale (clean) minus $400 for the radio and I think I offended him.

How much would you think it to be worth (assuming the above and that there are no major issues revealed during the PPI)? Any opinions are welcome.

[dtw]

That puts me out...'99s with blemishes can be had under 20 easily enough, even with low mileage. The IMS hysteria makes it a buyer's market.

[hbueno]

Originally Posted by dtw

That puts me out...'99s with blemishes can be had under 20 easily enough, even with low mileage. The IMS hysteria makes it a buyer's market.

If Edmunds is to be believed a red '99 with 85000 miles can be had for around $15,000! Kelly Blue Book is the polar opposite with private party sale around $23,000.

I wouldn't mind a 996 but the IMS thing is scary. Having real world failure statistics would be helpful but it seems we'll never have that kind of info.

Hugo

[dtw]

Originally Posted by hbueno

If Edmunds is to be believed a red '99 with 85000 miles can be had for around $15,000! Kelly Blue Book is the polar opposite with private party sale around $23,000.

I wouldn't mind a 996 but the IMS thing is scary. Having real world failure statistics would be helpful but it seems we'll never have that kind of info.

Hugo

Believe Edmunds - I have found them to be spot-on. These cars were cheap before the IMS hysteria gained momentum, and now they are tanking. They made plenty and the DIY crowd is getting into them. Wouldn't be surprised to see a Volume II from Wayne on building 911 engines, for doing water coolers.

Here's one:
Porsche : 911 Carrera Coupe 2-Door in Porsche | eBay Motors

For when the listing expires, it is a matte black '99 Coupe/Tip with an aftermarket tail and 115K, sold for $12.3K on 1.31.2013. I think this sale example is tainted by the paint and other option choices on this car.

Here's another:
Porsche : 911 Carrera Coupe 2-Door in Porsche | eBay Motors

A black '99 coupe with 80K for $14K. Muffler bypass installed with factory exhaust included in sale. In my stomping grounds - if I had happened to see the listing, I just might have snapped it up, though I am keen to purchase an '02-04.

M96 cars are getting to be like 928s - an insane amount of car for the money, IF you can work on them yourself.

[mpetry]

A popular misconception is that a PPI is a magical cure-all that will give the prospective owner absolute confidence in the condition of the car they are considering.

Pooey. While a PPI from a reputable shop may be a good way to get an objective look at a car before you buy it, some buyers use the PPI as a tool for getting additional price concessions from the seller - and they are missing the point. Ferrari expert Michael Sheehan, one of the best and most articulate automotive journalists working today, has written a number of articles on the PPI and what you get for your $300.

Michael Sheehan in Sports Car Marketplace

Quoting from Mr. Sheehan's article "Every would-be buyer wants to use the PPI as a new-car warranty, but a $300–$500 check-up is not—and never could be—construed as a warranty, especially on an older car."

The problem with selling these cars is that it's difficult (not impossible) to determine the state of the engine and IMS bearing. A PPI run by "a mechanic" working from a 35-point checklist is not going to tell you that, unless you run a spectroscopic oil analysis and / or cut the oil filter open as part of the process. Doing this type of due diligence is standard practice when purchasing an airplane. However, I don't think I've seen a 996 offered with that information.

I think that establishing the FMV of a used Porsche is somewhat different than doing the same for, say, a used Toyota Prius. Clearly market trends have an influence on the price, but for Porsches the condition of the individual car (and evidence of careful ownership) have a much more significant influence on the call than a typical buyer might expect.

[Wiese]

Mark:

Congrats to your friend on selling the car!

How much did it sell for? Would be nice to know for a future data point when shopping.

Thanks,
Kay