Example of a great Pelican FS ad

[PushingMyLuck]

Originally Posted by COLB

Ah yes, the famous market "standoff." I thought it was about "macro" factors. Did something in the "macro" economy change? Or called upon your nonsense, have you abandoned that whole confused bit?

You'll see.

[SilberUrS6]

Originally Posted by Jay Jones

I've got the same model and color car, with linen interior. Mareineblau is a great color, but am considering replacing the floor carpeting to a marine/dark blue as white is hard to maintain- or would that be blasphemy?

I think that's smart. Maybe just high-quality mats in Navy?

[COLB]

Originally Posted by PushingMyLuck

You'll see.

Will I?

More "macro" factors at work?

Stock market crash coming? Janet Yellen going off her meds?

The famous annual Spring swoon for car prices, when nobody wants to spend their tax refund on a car?

[X JBM X]

Originally Posted by COLB

If you are talking about the coupe, it has been floating around eBay, and has "sold" at least once in the past few weeks, along with its white sibling from the same seller.

The red coupe has accident damage, pretty high miles that are not verified, and what appears to me to be some title goofiness.

The white targa looks good in the pics, but has had a recent repaint, targa top rebuild, and some other work that raises questions -- and is also mileage exempt with no mention of it in the ad. This car has "sold" on ebay several times.

Some weirdness on two cars from the same lot makes me wonder.

And this is why it pays to do homework. I don't surf ebay's offerings often...

Minor accident damage doesn't scare me off, so long as it's repaired properly. My car was in a fender bender at some point in the 80s, and has a few areas on the passenger side that show evidence of a respray (where the fender bender was fixed). Honestly, I don't mind much - a couple areas I'd like to clean up a bit, but generally speaking, I'd consider my car pretty close to pristine.

However, 2 sketchy (but photograph well) cars will probably yield reasonably quick sales to unsuspecting pelicanites.

[whiterabbit]

Originally Posted by 2cam

I may be off on my estimates, but it seems that if someone really wanted to replace the seats with something more original, a set of nice factory seats could be bought and re-dyed for <$1500.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/porsche-911-used-parts-sale-wanted/797651-fs-85-carrera-seats.html

2cam

I think the car is worth the asking (or very close) assuming the paint is original. Restoring the seats will cost $1500 for new leather and carpets $500 making about 34k all in. If it were close to me I would be out looking at it.

If the car was totally stock and had 50k miles it would be easy 45k with that color paint and the current market.

[Matt Monson]

^what white rabbit said. Though I'm not a buyer for that car. My Carrera peg is full.

[PushingMyLuck]

Originally Posted by COLB

The famous annual Spring swoon for car prices, when nobody wants to spend their tax refund on a car?

You're pretty knowledgeable, but that's sillier than telling a guy to price his 110k mile 915 Targa at $32k.

LOL, people do not get $30,000 tax refunds. Wealthy people who have the slightest tax planning ability (or adviser) do not give the gov't an interest free $30k loan. They generally have a tax bill on tax day.

Anyone getting a typical $3000 return is not running off to buy a used Porsche. Anyone who needs a tax refund is not buying a 911. They save it, or use tax refunds to pay down their debt. Or they buy a bike, laptop, or vacation. Tax refunds have little correlation with 911 markets.

[MrBonus]

I can't believe we're actually arguing sports car pricing in the spring.

[NYNick]

It's all rather silly, really. Each car is different. Each geographic micro market is a little different. Each buyer and seller are different. Hell, needing tires alone can affect the price of a car, much less anything mechanical.

This thread is way too hypothetical. We need buyers and the prices they paid, and sellers with the selling (not asking) prices. Short of that, it's all just speculation, from people who are owners, not buyers or sellers, or by people who are not owners at all, and not buying.

Even Hagerty is a generalization of the market.

Let's hear from the buyers/sellers about actual transactions!

[Matt Monson]

Nick, I agree, the bickering and debating has reached a point of silly.

[MrBonus]

Originally Posted by Matt Monson

Nick, I agree, the bickering and debating has reached a point of silly.

I don't think there is any issue with disagreements on value and market direction (I mean, that's the point of this forum, right?) but when a single non-owner with clearly no interest in buying has an agenda to undermine existing sales of contributing members, it borderlines on inappropriate. PML's posts are entertaining and at times absurd but nitpicking prices and condition based on photographs posted by regular members of this forum does nothing to better the community as a whole.

[Matt Monson]

It's not just PML. People are treating each other with less courtesy than in the past. I'm not above reproach on this count and am just going to keep my side of the street clean going forward.

[COLB]

Originally Posted by PushingMyLuck

You're pretty knowledgeable, but that's sillier than telling a guy to price his 110k mile 915 Targa at $32k.

March and December are the two biggest months for car sales. Those are facts, and are not really refutable. Google it yourself if you care to.

Why are those months the two biggest? December represents end of year marketing by dealers, and the Christmas factor.

March is the beginning of Spring, and...yes..tax returns. The promise of a long driving season is the main variable, but disposable income matters, too.

LOL, people do not get $30,000 tax refunds. Wealthy people who have the slightest tax planning ability (or adviser) do not give the gov't an interest free $30k loan. They generally have a tax bill on tax day.

Last I checked, not everyone pays cash for a car -- even a classic car.

People may not buy $300,000 Ferraris at tax time, but most used Porsches are selling in the $20s. Those are Honda Accord prices -- your suggestion that only "wealthy people" buy Porsches is unfounded.

Of course a $1500-3000 return doesn't buy a car. But it makes a downpayment to secure a note. Even the "wealth effect" has an influence -- when people perceive they have more available disposable income, they are more likely to splurge on big expenses.

Anyone getting a typical $3000 return is not running off to buy a used Porsche. Anyone who needs a tax refund is not buying a 911. They save it, or use tax refunds to pay down their debt. Or they buy a bike, laptop, or vacation. Tax refunds have little correlation with 911 markets.

Certainly, most people don't buy cars with their tax returns, but plenty do. Again, actually do some research before blowing hot air.

Are many Porsche 911s bought on credit? I would expect plenty are, even if most aren't. Certainly not as high a percentage as new cars. But used car dealers love to finance, and your bank will, too. Remember we are talking about a very small market here. How many used 911s change hands every year? 10,000?

Even a small uptick in buyers affects demand functions in a small market.

I would expect Porsche prices to generally reflect the broader trend in the car market, and that is that demand...and prices...rise in the Spring. If you can link to any evidence to the contrary, I will concede your point.

See what the NADA says about it. See if you can find old market trends for 911s. Do something besides making claims that are either uninformed, or not backed by evidence. Contribute something to the forum.

[COLB]

By the way -- how classic car sales are similar to or differ from the broader new & used car markets is a question worth discussing.

Classic cars do not exactly replicate either market.

New cars are all sold retail through "middle men" dealers (except Teslas!). Used cars are primarily sold through wholesale auctions, and resold by dealers -- with a significant percentage through trade-in non-auction resale and private peer-to-peer sales.

Air-cooled Porsches don't exactly fit either model. These days, few are traded in -- though some are. Many are bought from private owners and then resold by dealers -- which is a only single digit percentage of the broader used car market.

As a general theory, I think the average project/hobby/classic car owner wants to buy a car in the Spring, drive it in the Summer, and either sell it in the fall, or keep it & work on it in the winter.

Obviously though, it takes both a buyer & a seller to complete a transaction. But there are more buyers than sellers in the Spring, more sellers than buyers in the fall, and a rough equilibrium in between.

And of course, seasons vary some by geography, and are less meaningful in Southern and Soutwestern climates -- and the national/global dimensions of the market smooth price curves.

[MrBonus]

Originally Posted by COLB

By the way -- how classic car sales are similar to or differ from the broader new & used car markets is a question worth discussing.

Classic cars do not exactly replicate either market.

New cars are all sold retail through "middle men" dealers (expect Teslas!). Used cars are primarily sold through whosesale auctions, and resold by dealers -- with a significant percentage through trade-in non-auction resale and private peer-to-peer sales.

Air-cooled Porsches don't exactly fit either model. These days, few are traded in -- though some are. Many are bought from private owners and then resold by dealers -- which is a only single digit percentage of the broader used car market.

As a general theory, I think the average project/hobby/classic car owner wants to buy a car in the Spring, drive it in the Summer, and either sell it in the fall, or keep it & work on it in the winter.

Obviously though, it takes both a buyer & a seller to complete a transaction. But there are more buyers than sellers in the Spring, more sellers than buyers in the fall, and a rough equilibrium in between.

And of course, seasons vary some by geography, and are less meaningful in Southern and Soutwestern climates -- and the national/global dimensions of the market smooth price curves.

Of course. Why rush to buy a car in the dead of winter just to have to tow it to your house and toss it in the garage?

[MrBonus]

I remember feeling rushed by July to find the right car because I knew I was running out of good driving days, having been looking since the early spring.

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by MrBonus

Of course. Why rush to buy a car in the dead of winter just to have to tow it to your house and toss it in the garage?

Devils Advocate
Because it gives you plenty of time to change the oils, bleed the brakes, change the pads and do any other minor tuneup and tweak items you need to do so that it's ready for Spring. /Devils Advocate

[Stonestreet]

Originally Posted by Matt Monson

Devils Advocate
Because it gives you plenty of time to change the oils, bleed the brakes, change the pads and do any other minor tuneup and tweak items you need to do so that it's ready for Spring. /Devils Advocate

Yeah, why not? I bought mine in the fall for a couple reasons, definitely one of them being what you stated. That and it was what I felt was one of the last chances at a fair price on a 3.2, fully expecting for whatever reason that it would cost more in the spring for the same car. Not in the sense of a cyclical pattern through the year, but the seemingly relentless increase in price as they get older.

Worship seitan. Devils advocate #2.

[Stonestreet]

Originally Posted by PushingMyLuck

Nice looking car, but my opinion is that this car is overpriced.
Many smart sellers may be starting to cash out at inflated prices.
Watch as the market finds a standoff b/w buyers and sellers.

I do not mean to insult anyone's car, but $32k gets you a G50 with under 100k.

• Over 100k miles. Right there, you're not in $32k territory.
• Non-original interior mods
• Non matching cloth seats.
• Has tail.
• Why was the windshield replaced?
• No cat?
• Cruise doesn't work.
• No radio.
• Oil sending unit was disconnected instead of fixed.
• Car has been tracked by seller
• Engine looks dirty.
• Caked on gunk around valve covers.

Sold in a heartbeat? By this weekend?
Maybe at $25k ...Let's see.

I agree that the price seems high. But does it really seem that strange? I don't think so.

Most of the items you list as issues aren't deal breakers or big deals from my admittedly limited knowledge. For instance, dismissing a "high" mile car from being in a certain echelon is a sure way to miss out on a great car. Often, cars that sit and shine without clocking miles can dry up and then get stressed out when they're back out on the road with a stoked new owner; Seats were addressed, not a difficult item to sort out; Tail or no tail, not hard to sort out. Mine has one, I'm taking it off, but more importantly, it wouldn't affect the price. There are enough people to support both camps; Radio is $150 I think?; The rest also not hard to fix, I can't speak for the oil sender though. And I definitely need a new windscreen. Not because I keep crashing it or body slamming my TV into it, but because they are pretty plumb, and take road grit head on. I wish mine came with a new one.

Anyway, the point is that regardless of the issues, this is a 25 year old car. It's going to have a few dings from the judges, but I think the ones specific to this car wouldn't be enough to scare away someone who knows what he/she wants and is getting for the money.

Lastly, I think it's a waste of time to believe umbrella statements as absolutes with regards to your comment about a g50 under 100k. Not trying to be combative, I just think it's important to remember that after 25 years, there is enough room for variables to trade places within the hierarchy of typical criteria used to judge the potential value of used cars.

Marc

[COLB]

Lastly, I think it's a waste of time to believe umbrella statements as absolutes with regards to your comment about a g50 under 100k. Not trying to be combative, I just think it's important to remember that after 25 years, there is enough room for variables to trade places within the hierarchy of typical criteria used to judge the potential value of used cars.

this is well stated.

Different cars -- even within the same year, body style, and color -- trade in a pretty wide band of prices due to a really wide variety of variables. Mileage is an important one -- but certainly not the only one.

But if the limit of your knowledge is "red 915 Carrera targa with 100k -- $22,500"….

Well, a one-trick-pony generally only knows one trick.