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when will the bubble pop ?
I think we are in a early 911 bubble
and all bubbles pop sooner or later so the question is when will it happen ? not that the car will lose all value but return to sane price levels I understand racecars like a 550 or 904 or even the early 911S but early 912 at more then a low mile 1990's 911 price ? or a nice boxter ? I think the insanity will end by fall |
Good question, because supply will always be limited(not producing aircooled cars since 98) I think prices will level off but I dont think a bubble will pop. Once everyone gets "there car" I think it will just cool down. When muscle cars came crashing down it was because millions of those cars were manufactured and thousand were being restored to support the demand. The aircooled craze is a little different. But hey, I can be completely wrong :)
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I don't think air cooled prices are especially bubblelicious.
But the general economy might be. |
Bubbles seem to go on for a lot longer and higher than you would think. That being said, if I could accurately predict bubbles I would probably be a billionaire!!!
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Bubble is not going to pop! Has it popped for the 356? The problem is that you cannot buy a decent 356 for under 75K. So, the longhoods have made it to the top now and I expect will stay up there. As the longhoods increase they bring along the mid-years, SCs and Carreras and the ever popular 993. The way I see it, the longhoods are now at 356 status and the market has yet to settle down. Prices will remain high. Bubble? What bubble?
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I guess the questions really to be answered:
What made the longhoods popular enough to command the prices they do? (The longhoods are driving the market.) The other question follows from the first - what about longhoods will become unpopular such that the market for them will soften? |
Musclecars and Porsches are apples and oranges.
Ford made 559,451 Mustangs in 1965 alone. That is more than all the 911s built in any generation combined. Add Camaros, Firebirds, Chargers, Challengers, Cudas, GTOs, and the millions of lesser badged cars that can be easily "cloned" for the price conscious -- and you have a situation where supply can actually outpace demand for all except the rarest of options -- the top of the line motors, homologations, and actual race cars. Now add single digit fuel economy, and aging out boomers. Those factors don't apply to Porsches in the same way: - Many fewer built - Few real substitutes (what are the 70s and 80s sports car comparables?) - Street & DD usable (20+ MPG) - Broader, younger appeal (popularity peaked in the 1980s -- not 1960s) THe 911 market still has legs. |
No bubble at all on air cooled cars. In fact demand is increasing.
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↑↑ That was my point with the muscle cars. I specifically said" millions were manufactured" and implying that the muscle cars and the porsche are completely different. Thats the most recent car bubble I can think of.
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I kinda agree with COLB, but with some qualification.
The market for muscle cars is much larger than it is for Porsches. Always has been, even when they were being built. Smaller supply versus smaller demand, at least when you compare the apple market to the orange market, or vice versa. The old guys (me) like the cars from the 50's and 60's. Honestly, you can get a good air-cooled right now for less than a good GTO, for example. I think some younger people are seeing the value there, and creating the air cooled demand, while the older well heeled crowd are seeing them as investments. I doubt anybody who now owns an air cooled will be losing any money on them down the road. And yes, it still has legs. Bubble? Well, if you're late to any game, you're bound to get hurt. Orange you glad you asked? ; ) Nick |
Ummm....bubble
My only concern, because I like theses cars is the quote " once everyone gets their air cooled car, then what"? The market is driven by the LONGHOODS, very true. I now see very poorly done LONGHOODS for sell that would almost be parts cars 5 years earlier. The Porsche World in the US is much smaller then muscle cars, and most US baby boomers identified with muscle cars (me). But I changed course when I bought me first Porsche about 10 years ago. But now with world wide interests the prices have been up...but I wonder who or how people can continue to afford $50,000 plus for air cooled cars? I think the one big issue is supply, it's difficult to find nice air cooled cars.....so prices continue.. |
Porsches, compared to other period sports car like Ferrari, Aston Martin, Jaguar, Bentley, Lamborghini, Maserati... are the cheapest of the lot.
They won't reach Ferrari quotations (produced in very few numbers), but they will still grow in value, because understimated compared to other brands |
The longhoods, many decades after the line ended (1973.5T) were sought after only by the purists. These were the VW air-cooled Beetle crowd. The cars were very prone to rust, were not exceptionally fast compared to the 2.7 of the 1974 - 1977 line or the 3.0's of the 1978 - 1983SC line. The newer models became quite popular compared to the older 911's (longhoods). Afterall, who did not like electric windows and mirrors, sculpted high back seats, flared wheel wells, factory rustproofing, etc, etc. Rust is what kept everyone at bay for sometime when looking to buy an older 911.
What brought on the sudden upsurge in longhood popularity I guess is a matter of nostalgia coupled with more simplistic engineering and of course the original model line that gave Porsche its great reputation. The sales brochures showed the cars going directly from the showroom to the track!! The longhood has reached 356 status on collectibility and price range. I feel this will not retreat and as the cars age the mid-years (74 -77), SC's (78 - 83) and the Carreras (84 - 89) will see increases in collectibility and price. When I bought my 1973.5T over a dozen years ago at first I was reluctant because of the rust issues. Actually I was looking for a decent SC when I came upon a restored older 911 for a decent price. I took a gamble knowing about the rust issues, lackluster perfomance of the "T" model, the color Sepia Brown, which for years was considered here by Pleican Heads as a "deal killer" and the difficulty in finding parts, I almost backed off. Today, I can say, my purchase was a wise one............so as a longhood owner, I will take the bubble anytime. Would'nt we all? Now would I pay upwards of 50K for a longhood today? Probably not, but I would not hesitate to pick up a nice SC or early Carerra for half that amount. 40 year Porsche Owner Bob |
No bubble.
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But your point is valid -- Ferrari and Lamborghini, and the '77 & earlier Maseratis -- add Lotus Esprits. There isn't much more out there. And Porsches are the cheapest to buy, cheapest to maintain, and probably the best engineered. |
If it's not a bubble, can someone explain how they were so undervalued for so long? I'm not talking about during one short period of bad economic times but rather all through the last 35 years up until 2 years ago??
If you cannot answer that question, it's a bubble. If you do not agree, you don't know what a bubble is. And I love the cars, BTW. I owned a "longhood" when some of you were still riding Big Wheels on the sidewalk. |
[QUOTE=speeder;8016018]
If you cannot answer that question, it's a bubble. If you do not agree, you don't know what a bubble is. QUOTE] I guess you are the right thinking person? and to disagree with you is wrong? only to you. I do not agree that we have a bubble, there is froth, but there is a lot of staying power to the increase in value of 911's. 911's were under appreciated for years and were viewed as a fall back car that could always be found, cheap. The price's were stagnate when other cars were rising and there was the gospel spread by people in the know, like Bruce Anderson, to buy the newest you can afford. Now we have a crop of younger people who think 65-89 911's are 'Classic' Porsche and do not even associate with 356 as being a Porsche. We also have old 356 guys who do not like to dice it up in modern traffic with their 356 and a early long hood has the feel of a simple early Porsche but with performance that can deal with in modern traffic. long hood 911's have matched 356's in desirability and has a much broader market and I believe will never fall back to the cheap car slot. Water pumpers have nicely filled that. Even Boxster are fighting with 914's for the cheap track car position. |
Agreed.
A lot has happened in the last two years to the car market in general. Honestly, I don't think you can even discount Seinfeld's Collection as affecting the market upwardly. Not to mention the proliferation of car shows. The market has grown exponentially for new Porsches over the years, broadening the brand recognition. Is it too much of a stretch to think there are NEW Porsche aficionados out there these days? And again, I really think these cars have just become known as great value to a lot more people. They were a niche car for a very, very long time, and priced accordingly. People have come to realize that at $15-30K, you get a lot of car for the money. Nick |
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They have also always been worth a lot more overseas and finally we are waking up in the US to how undervalued they are here. Plus there are significantly less physically available in the US than ten years ago. Also I think lots of folks are now buying as they see it as their last opportunity to get in to buy a car to keep for life. I still can't think of a better longterm prop than a 3.2 for 35k in excellent condition. |
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They used to junk old race cars. Now anything with legit period race history is valuable -- even "cars" that are little more than old frames with a few bent, unoriginal panels. Rusty 356s (especially coupes) were worth little for decades. Sure, they had avid followings of enthusiasts -- but they were cheap. Until they started becoming coveted by a wider audience in the early '80s -- when they were 20-25 years old. Is that a bubble? If so, it is a durable one -- that market has been climbing for 30+ years. |
You can search my post history. I explained how it happened to the 356 market, and the longnose market and is now happening to the IB cars. Too long to re-write and too busy at work today to find it for myself.
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[QUOTE=ficke;8016053]
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I believe very firmly that most all older Porsches have value. Some quite a bit, others not as much but they all have value as well-made mechanical objects, etc. I was referring specifically to the early car market, which has gone bonkers in a way that cannot be explained using any free-market rules or logic, therefore it's a bubble. Impact bumper cars are not at all in a bubble, IMO, they are simply enjoying a "rising tide" effect from crazy early car prices. I shopped for '73 RSes back in about 2005, I can remember that the most expensive ones were around $100k, give or take, and there was a good supply for sale worldwide. $100k seemed really ambitious on the part of the seller at the time, good matching #s cars were around for $60-70k. Beautiful '73 911S coupes were in the $20s. I'm not talking about prices back in 1965. I'm talking about 2005. Seinfeld had his cars, other people that are known in the Porsche world had their hoarded RSes and '67 911Ses, etc. There was plenty of demand for good early cars, but 911Ts were sort of a dime-a-dozen. I got offered a '73 black 911T targa for under $20k that was truly in showroom concours condition. I can't even guess what it would be worth now. I'm pretty sure that they were undervalued then. :) Fast-forward to oh, say 2011 or 2012. A good early 911S is what, $60-70k? And now they are $150-200k? Anyone think that's not a bubble? Normal appreciation? It's a massive run-up in prices, with lowly 911Ts along for the ride...call it what you will if you don't like the word "bubble". My 80 year old dad has lived through all kinds of crazy financial bubbles, (and is familiar with the ones before he was born), during the last RE bubble here in SoCal he pointed out that it was something like the 423rd RE bubble since the time of ancient Rome, which actually had a RE bubble itself. And still, I went out to dinner with people who did not believe we were in a bubble. Seemingly normal people who use knives and forks that did not understand what a bubble is. They honestly thought that their houses that had appreciated 20% annually for the last 5 years were going to continue going up. I did a face-palm. They ate schit soon after, since they all sucked all the $$ out of their houses even if they hadn't bought them recently. A bubble is a bubble is a bubble, no matter what the item being discussed. :cool: |
Never!..!!!!>.!>!!
It is how it is now.... collector cars are recession proof ...proven time and time again.. Rare low production 911 $$$$ .. whata fun hobby to have .. :) when junk turns to gold..were all feelin lucky... |
Values move up and down but long term almost everything goes up. I think this is just the general inflationary characteristic of our economy that most people accept as the norm. How much did your first car/house cost? What did your first job pay? Everything goes up as the value of money goes down but not necessarily to the same degree. $10k Porsches are now $30k. The economy might come crashing down one day but there is no point in worrying about that.
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Speedster.....good points.
Bubble, yes the cars have gone up, it's a bubble, yes, The cars will reach a point of no return .....but for the wealthy.....in theory just not a lot of inventory. But this bubble could be 2 years out and not burst like the 2008 housing bubble...the burst will be small or not at all just a small leveling of prices. Remember, we talked about this before, 1) low inventory 2) hand built low production cars 3) a world car not just relaying on any one economy 4) young people besides baby boomers like the cars.....356's are now too old for the younger buyers 5) longevity off the 911 and newer owners wanting one in their herds. |
A hundred years ago, a steak dinner was 25-cents, twelve years ago a restored Porsche 911 1973.5T was under $10,000. Back in the 60's I used to gas up my dad's 1967 Cadillac for less then 8 cents per gallon. Yep, everything goes up. Their is no bubble! Its what your willing to pay for what you desire. So the real question is, do people have more money then sense?!
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[QUOTE=speeder;8017175]
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The part of the market rise fueled by speculators will come down, the part fueled by enthusiast will make the new norm, how much is each I do not know but I will agree when the speculators leave there will be a price drop and that can be labeled 'bubble' But it will never go back down to the cheap sports car alternative, the market has discovered these cars, I believe it is more than just the "flavor of the month". So there is a new norm that is much higher than before. In 2004 I brought a no rust highly optioned 67S for 15K and was also offered a no rust, rough interior 70S for 7.5K I thought they were under appreciated valuable cars at the time, now I also believe they are not nearly worth what people are paying today. But any fast rising market will overshoot. |
I believe you are simply seeing the value of these cars leveling off with the rest of the collector car market. A nice 69 Camaro costs $100k. Remember Porsche is thought of as a luxury brand and should demand more money especially if you compare orig pricing.
73 and down will continue to rise but those that are paying huge bucks for say a plain jane 85 will see an adjustment when the market sees what else say $40k can buy. By the way there was a huge price drop in muscle cars in the last 5 years. |
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I think a perfect 40k impact bumper 911 is about the best deal out there right now. |
The mistake everyone makes is giving reasons that were just as valid 5 years ago, when these cars were selling for $12k.
So, it's not low production number that caused prices to spike. The the 5 years bull market. The bubble will deflate once the stock market corrects and the economy goes south. That is what caused the inflation, and is what will cause the deflation. Low production numbers were low when 3.2's were selling for $12k. That is NOT the reason they are now high in price. |
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a few unrusted z28's with the right options maybe worth that in like new condition with the correct original rare motor my dispute is not the rare cars value like a true original ''S'' but the older 912 or 911 with the non-MFI motors swaped motors ect all going up that is where there is a current BUBBLE |
An old Camaro is more like a $25k car.
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I think that it absolutely follows market fundamentals that old 911s have risen in price, just not to the degree and at the rate that early cars have.
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We used to say that all Carreras as were $20k cars. Either you bought a $20k car or you bought a $10k car and in the next couple of years you put ten into it.
Basic economics here. An engine rebuild used to be $5~8k and a gearbox $2~4k. Now those prices are close to double. And paint costs have gone way up. So it stands to reason that if enough of them got major maintenance of those big items the value of the whole segment goes up. Why the change in price happened so quickly is another story. But it happening was inevitable. |
what about VW bus bubble? Its been going on awhile.
Everything from the 60's, 70's, and now 80's is on the rise. People want what they wanted when they were young but couldn't afford then. My wife just bought the Barbie RV Camper she had when she was 5. Without a Barbie. |
When it comes to the value of a well sorted car, the question isn't not all just the wacky economy. In reality it costs an owner today more to restore and keep a 35 year old 911 on the road than it did an owner 10 years ago to keep the same, then 25 year old 911, on the road. The cost of keeping a 45 year old 911 on the road (and looking good) is even higher. Once investments like restoration improvements are made in dearly held cars, an owner is going to ask a price that reflects the added value invested.
I think 911 value is as much a result of physics (cost of exerting against natural erosion over time) as it is the volatile nature of economy. |
So the 67S I brought for 15K in 2004 I sold when the bubble burst in 2008 for 47,500I figured I could buy another one for far less money because the bubble burst then , right? or so I thought. So we are in a bubble now and then and before and it burst and seems to recover.
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Difficult to find a great '67 S for any price now, probably over $200k from a friend if you could. :)
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Do some research on bubbles.
There is a famous saying "bubbles tend to last far longer and grow much larger than most anyone expects". The bubble is at the top when it is INCONCEIVABLE that prices can go down. When surgeons quit their jobs in order to flip Porsches. See the chart below: http://blog.stocktwits.com/wp-conten...l_15986178.png |
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