Recent changes to Craig's list and Auto Trader

[Nick Triesch]

I look at both San Diego Craig's list (how I bought my car) and the Auto Trader from time to time and I notice that both now have very few 3.2 cars advertised. And if they are they are, they are priced through the roof! Just in a few months time! Also I notice there are a ton of 1999-2002 cars in these pubs all the time. Mostly advertised around $18,000-$20,000. If someone wanted one of those cars they are a deal and a half! I think the 3.2 cars are moving to the specialty dealers. Interesting times indeed!

[pochejp]

Originally Posted by Nick Triesch

I look at both San Diego Craig's list (how I bought my car) and the Auto Trader from time to time and I notice that both now have very few 3.2 cars advertised. And if they are they are, they are priced through the roof! Just in a few months time! Also I notice there are a ton of 1999-2002 cars in these pubs all the time. Mostly advertised around $18,000-$20,000. If someone wanted one of those cars they are a deal and a half! I think the 3.2 cars are moving to the specialty dealers. Interesting times indeed!

This is me. I'm looking.

[sammyf]

I just sold an 85 3.2 and jumped to a 2002 996… While the 99 to 2001 are indeed attractive from a price perspective, the 3.6 engine in the 2002+ are noticeably stronger!

[KNS]

I've only purchased one thing ever off of Craigslist - my '84 Carrera. I picked it up in 2008 for $12,000, it had been for sale for a week or so. Ruby Red coupe, 101,000 miles, excellent mechanical condition but AC not working, some cracks in the dash and front seats with some tears (rest of interior in fantastic shape). Nice paint but a few scratches and some rock chips. Zero rust, always a SoCal and Arizona car.

PPI showed healthy engine (very little oil consumption since I've owned it). I'm the third owner and it has full maintenance history going back to 1984. It came from the factory with 16x7 and 16x8 Fuchs (which I've got in storage), an unusual and uncommon option in 1984. I'm curious as to what it's worth today because I'd have a heck of time trying to replace it if something happened to it.

I remember when the economy tanked after 2006-07. I was amazed at how many 911SCs and 3.2s were up for sale, everywhere you looked.

[PushingMyLuck]

Originally Posted by KNS

I remember when the economy tanked after 2006-07. I was amazed at how many 911SCs and 3.2s were up for sale, everywhere you looked.

This will happen again, as it does for every boom and bust cycle.

Nothing doubles in 2 years without a major correction,
as nothing in the fundamentals has changed in 2 years.

Your car is probably worth $22k now.
It may be worth $12k again 2 years from now.

[MrBonus]

Originally Posted by PushingMyLuck

This will happen again, as it does for every boom and bust cycle.

Nothing doubles in 2 years without a major correction,
as nothing in the fundamentals has changed in 2 years.

Your car is probably worth $22k now.
It may be worth $12k again 2 years from now.

What economic principles are you citing again?

[sammyf]

Originally Posted by PushingMyLuck

"... nothing in the fundamentals has changed in 2 years…"

I no longer have a vested interest in the air-cooled game, but what do you consider a fundamental change? Other than the passage of time and increased desirability?

What's fundamentally changed about a Ferrari 250 GTO in the last 20 years to justify its astronomical gain?

[COLB]

Originally Posted by KNS

I've only purchased one thing ever off of Craigslist - my '84 Carrera. I picked it up in 2008 for $12,000, it had been for sale for a week or so. Ruby Red coupe, 101,000 miles, excellent mechanical condition but AC not working, some cracks in the dash and front seats with some tears (rest of interior in fantastic shape). Nice paint but a few scratches and some rock chips. Zero rust, always a SoCal and Arizona car.

PPI showed healthy engine (very little oil consumption since I've owned it). I'm the third owner and it has full maintenance history going back to 1984. It came from the factory with 16x7 and 16x8 Fuchs (which I've got in storage), an unusual and uncommon option in 1984. I'm curious as to what it's worth today because I'd have a heck of time trying to replace it if something happened to it.

I remember when the economy tanked after 2006-07. I was amazed at how many 911SCs and 3.2s were up for sale, everywhere you looked.

I've had pretty good luck buying and selling cars on craigslist -- but I tend to be selling & buying inexpensive cars. For more high dollar cars you tend to attract a lot of tire kickers & guys trying to get big discounts.

How's the transmission?

Hard to really judge yours based on the info & no pictures. Factory 7&8s are worth a fair bit by themselves. Those might balance the seat & dash issues a bit.

Maybe $23-26k. Less if the 915 needs work.

BTW -- if PML is discussing either economics or Porsches, he is generally talking about things he has read about, but doesn't really understand.

[Reddy Kilowatt]

Estimating future prices of cars (or guitars, or watches, or Beanie Babies) is just guessing. Some guessing is more educated than other guessing.

[KNS]

The transmission shifts fine actually though once a while it is little stiff coming out of third.

[COLB]

Originally Posted by Reddy Kilowatt

Estimating future prices of cars (or guitars, or watches, or Beanie Babies) is just guessing. Some guessing is more educated than other guessing.

True, though I wouldn't roll Beanie Babies in with Rolexes or legit guitars. No doubt there is downside risk in any high dollar collectible.

Despite the blathering about bubbles and crashes, etc by folks like PML -- consider for a second what the actual downside risk is of buying an air-cooled 911. Unless you are buying a concours trailer queen -- and there are very few 74-89 cars that fit that definition -- it is a car that you are buying to drive.

Buy any decent 911 for ~$25k, and what is the least you can expect to sell it for in 5 years -- even if the economy goes into another recession? $15k? And that is a true swoon, sold at the bottom of the market. After 5 years of fun.

Congrats -- that is a better economic performance than you can expect on almost ANY $25k you might buy new, and people drop that coin by the thousands every single day.

And if you take care of it, you have the prospect of breaking even, or maybe even seeing a small financial gain -- perhaps enough to cover your routine maintenance costs.

Name me a new or late model used car that offers the same prospect at the same price point.

Sorry -- I'm just losing it on people worrying themselves silly about possibly "losing" 5 grand on a car -- when that is GUARANTEED depreciation within two years of buying any new or used car of comparable value.

People worry too much. And as someone smart once posted here -- people regret most the cars they didn't buy.

[COLB]

Originally Posted by KNS

The transmission shifts fine actually though once a while it is little stiff coming out of third.

Great looking car -- love the color. The deep rears look the business, and the polished petals really work with the paint.

It is different, and has great curb appeal.

[SilberUrS6]

Originally Posted by COLB

BTW -- if PML is discussing either economics or Porsches, he is generally talking about things he has read about, but doesn't really understand.

^^^this

[KNS]

Colb,

Thanks, the front has been lowered slightly since that picture. I'm not crazy about polished Fuchs and would someday like to have them redone so that what is currently polished would be a bright anodized with black background.

[COLB]

Originally Posted by KNS

Colb,

Thanks, the front has been lowered slightly since that picture. I'm not crazy about polished Fuchs and would someday like to have them redone so that what is currently polished would be a bright anodized with black background.

I tend to agree with you about polished wheels, but on a coupe with your color, they look right.

[SilberUrS6]

Originally Posted by COLB

I tend to agree with you about polished wheels, but on a coupe with your color, they look right.

I agree. I like an all-silver look on the wheels, which I think looks great against a dark car. All-silver in a semi-gloss sort of look with anodize would be SO much better.

[Reddy Kilowatt]

Originally Posted by COLB

True, though I wouldn't roll Beanie Babies in with Rolexes or legit guitars. No doubt there is downside risk in any high dollar collectible.

Despite the blathering about bubbles and crashes, etc by folks like PML -- consider for a second what the actual downside risk is of buying an air-cooled 911. Unless you are buying a concours trailer queen -- and there are very few 74-89 cars that fit that definition -- it is a car that you are buying to drive.

Buy any decent 911 for ~$25k, and what is the least you can expect to sell it for in 5 years -- even if the economy goes into another recession? $15k? And that is a true swoon, sold at the bottom of the market. After 5 years of fun.

Congrats -- that is a better economic performance than you can expect on almost ANY $25k you might buy new, and people drop that coin by the thousands every single day.

And if you take care of it, you have the prospect of breaking even, or maybe even seeing a small financial gain -- perhaps enough to cover your routine maintenance costs.

Name me a new or late model used car that offers the same prospect at the same price point.

Sorry -- I'm just losing it on people worrying themselves silly about possibly "losing" 5 grand on a car -- when that is GUARANTEED depreciation within two years of buying any new or used car of comparable value.

People worry too much. And as someone smart once posted here -- people regret most the cars they didn't buy.

You'll get no argument from me on any of the above.

[PushingMyLuck]

Originally Posted by COLB

Buy any decent 911 for ~$25k, and what is the least you can expect to sell it for in 5 years -- even if the economy goes into another recession? $15k? And that is a true swoon, sold at the bottom of the market. After 5 years of fun.

Congrats -- that is a better economic performance than you can expect on almost ANY $25k you might buy new, and people drop that coin by the thousands every single day.

The huge flaw in your logic is ignoring maintenance costs for 5 years on the used 911.
A new car is not going to require a $20k engine rebuild, $5k gearbox rebuild, or $8k top end rebuild.

It is reasonable to expect to spend $2000-$3000 a year to keep an older car on the road that is getting 20k miles of annual driving.
I assume it's only more with a Porsche if parts prices are any indication.

So, you could buy a 911 for $25k.
It could go back to $15k in a serious recession. Just like stocks. Just like houses. Just like everything else speculative.
In that time, if you got unlucky and needed serious work done, you could EASILY be into the car for another $25k ($20k rebuild plus $5k misc. bits to sort it out)

That would have you sitting on a net loss of $30,000 in 5 years if the car was sold for $20k in 5 years time.
That is an ass kicking vis a vis the $5k depreciation on a Camry in 5 years (and virtually zero repair bills)

If you don't have money to play with, this is not the hobby for you if the Black Swan decides to visit your car.
Maybe it was for the salt of the earth types 2 years ago, but now it's only for folks with real money to spare.

PS: Someone tell Silber that he owes me an apology. That obsessed windbag was proven wrong yet again.
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/porsche-marketplace-discussion/807197-report-my-day-hershey-picss.html

[PushingMyLuck]

Originally Posted by sammyf

What's fundamentally changed about a Ferrari 250 GTO in the last 20 years to justify its astronomical gain?

To quote the great Lloyd Bentsen...

"I knew Ferrari 250 GTO.
Ferrari 250 GTO was a friend of mine.
This, sir, is no Ferrari 250 GTO"

[COLB]

The huge flaw in your logic is ignoring maintenance costs for 5 years on the used 911.
A new car is not going to require a $20k engine rebuild, $5k gearbox rebuild, or $8k top end rebuild.

You should not expect to rebuild an engine or transmission on a 911 you paid $25k for -- and your $20k number for an engine rebuild is either for a custom performance motor build at a high end shop, or a figment of your over-active imagination.

It is reasonable to expect to spend $2000-$3000 a year to keep an older car on the road that is getting 20k miles of annual driving.

How many 911s get driven 20k a year? I expect it is a number approaching zero. But yes, there is a cost for keeping an old car on the road. It is not $2000 per year -- especially if you do your own routine maintenance. And if you are paying someone else to maintain your classic cars then you shouldn't be fretting about a couple of grand on the sales price.

I assume it's only more with a Porsche if parts prices are any indication.

you assume things you know nothing about. An major service for a 911 is a less than two hundred bucks if you DIY (Oil, air, and fuel filters, belts, oil change, valve adjustment, valve cover gaskets), and the major cost is the oil. That is due every 15k miles -- which is probably three years of driving for the average owner. Most change the oil annually, which is $70-100 depending on the brand you use. A regularly serviced engine can go 200-300k miles without needing a rebuild. Clutches go well over 100k on cars that are properly driven and not tracked. If you paid $25k and your car needs an engine, tranny, and clutch, well...you are not very good at buying cars.

So, you could buy a 911 for $25k.
It could go back to $15k in a serious recession. Just like stocks. Just like houses. Just like everything else speculative.
In that time, if you got unlucky and needed serious work done, you could EASILY be into the car for another $25k ($20k rebuild plus $5k misc. bits to sort it out)

Yeah -- and a sinkhole could open up under your house. Or a tree could fall on it. And the market could bounce back to $25k again within two years if you don't panic and sell at the bottom. If you are speculating on a $25k car, you are foolish. It is consumption that has the prospect of retaining its value and maybe appreciating. That's it. and your $20k number is pure fantasy.

That would have you sitting on a net loss of $30,000 in 5 years if the car was sold for $20k in 5 years time.
That is an ass kicking vis a vis the $5k depreciation on a Camry in 5 years (and virtually zero repair bills)

That is also totally imaginary. The average owner does not do ANY of those rebuilds within a five year ownership period, and only a dumbass who doesn't know what they are talking about calculates a "$20k engine rebuild" and a "$8k top end rebuild" as separate things. The fact you don't know what either of those terms entails is ample demonstration that you should stop trying to advise new posters who may not realize that you are an internet poser with no relevant experience.

If you don't have money to play with, this is not the hobby for you if the Black Swan decides to visit your car.

Umm, yeah. If you don't have disposable income, and are going to take your car to a mechanic every time it drips a little oil, this is not the car for you. No one suggested otherwise.

Your flirtation with the hobby is fine and all. And whether or not you end up buying a car is immaterial to me. More power to ya for going to Hershey. Even your confused economics lectures are fair game since even Warren Buffett doesn't know when the next recession is going to happen.

But seriously -- you really ought to stop giving advice to people that you don't even have the most basic qualification to give. Buy a car, get to know it for a few years, and then offer information on the ownership experience of a new buyer. But until then, you really should read more and post less.